中国的经济影响与东亚国家民众对华评价——经济受惠度与发展主义的调节效应分析

发布时间：2018-05-27 18:09

本文选题：“一带一路” + 受惠度　；参考：《世界经济与政治》2017年02期

【摘要】：东亚是中国对外经济联系最为紧密的区域之一,对中国经济发展和国家安全具有重要战略意义。中国与东亚日趋加强的贸易和投资关系将会如何影响其民众对中国的态度?在"一带一路"战略背景下,对该问题的探讨具有重要的理论和现实意义。作者通过多层线性模型分析发现,中国和东亚国家的经贸依存度与其民众对中国的评价存在显著负相关,即与中国经贸关系紧密的国家,其民众对中国的评价反而低。我们通过建立调节效用模型并对调节模式进行分析,发现这是由于"经济发展受惠度"和"发展主义倾向"的调节作用所致:在这两项调节指标高的国家中,中国对其经济影响越大,民众对中国的评价越积极;而在这两项指标低的国家,中国的经济影响越大,民众对中国的评价越负面。研究结果提示,中国加强对外投资和贸易时应该了解对象国家的这两组民众指标,通过适当舆论引导,减少民众层面的阻力与风险。这一研究从理论上拓展了新功能主义的观念"溢出效应"模型,并从对外经济联系的角度拓展了目前有关中国软实力的研究。
[Abstract]:East Asia is one of the most closely related regions of China's foreign economy, which is of strategic significance to China's economic development and national security. How will China's growing trade and investment relationship with East Asia affect its people's attitudes towards China? Under the background of "Belt and Road" strategy, the discussion of this problem has important theoretical and practical significance. The author finds that the degree of economic and trade dependence between China and East Asian countries is negatively correlated with the evaluation of China by the people of China, that is, with the countries with close economic and trade relations, the evaluation of China is low. Through the establishment of a regulatory utility model and an analysis of the regulatory model, we find that this is due to the moderating role of "economic development benefits" and "developmentalist tendencies": in these two countries with high regulatory indicators, The greater the impact on China's economy, the more positive its public opinion of China is, and the more negative its economic impact is in the two low-indicator countries. The results suggest that China should understand these two groups of public indicators in the target countries when strengthening foreign investment and trade, and reduce the resistance and risk at the public level through the guidance of appropriate public opinion. This study theoretically extends the "spillover effect" model of the concept of neo-functionalism, and extends the current research on China's soft power from the angle of foreign economic relations.
【作者单位】：中山大学国际关系学院;中山大学南海战略研究院;中山大学心理学系;
【基金】：中山大学南海战略研究院2015年度项目“‘一带一路’研究” 中山大学中央高校基本科研业务费青年教师培育项目的资助
【分类号】：F124;F125

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