新常态下的中国经济发展态势和需要克服的几个误区

发布时间：2018-05-28 10:01

本文选题：经济新常态 + 经济增长　；参考：《河南社会科学》2015年05期

【摘要】：经济学最迷人的地方,就在于它对一个国家、一个地区经济发展、社会进步推动力的理论解释,即经济增长。从西方政治经济学诞生之始,以威廉·配第、约翰·洛克以及大卫·休谟等为代表的早期思想家,就在各自的著作中对经济增长或多或少地进行了探讨。自亚当·斯密始,经济增长正式成为各个经济流派、不同经济学者所醉心研究的核心问题之一。从古典经济学到新古典经济学,从凯恩斯主义到新凯恩斯学派,从奥地利学派到新自由主义,亚当·斯密、马尔萨斯、萨伊、西斯蒙第、边沁、大卫·李嘉图、约翰·穆勒、门格尔、哈耶克、马歇尔、凯恩斯、熊彼得、斯拉法等等,一个又一个思想家在研究经济增长的道路上留下坚实的足迹。发展到当代,"经济学科学的中心问题不再是解释以劳动分工为基础的市场化社会如何运作,而是解释理性行为人如何在其他个人遵循与自己类似行为规则的情况下通过市场在交易中作出选择"(荣卡格利亚),也就是说,经济学理论开始从一般到具体、由规则至行为进行演进。由此也使得对经济增长的研究,从一般的、静止的、微观的分析,转向动态的、综合的、人性的社会整体分析。经济增长决定了一个民族、一个国家国际竞争力的最主要组成,也是各国最为关注的社会指标之一。改革开放以来,我国经济增长从方式、速度、内容以及性质等方面,都随着时代的变化发生着深刻的变化,由此也产生了许多关于中国经济增长的不同解读。2014年习近平总书记提出经济新常态的命题之后,关于新常态下的经济增长,就成为学界、实务界以及其他社会群体高度关注的焦点问题。尤其是新常态下经济增速的变缓、经济发展方式转型的阵痛等,都要求我们从战略高度,从中国社会的实际出发,来研究新常态下的中国经济增长。本期经济新常态专题,特别获得北京大学国家发展研究院独家授权,在纸面媒体发表林毅夫、姚洋、周其仁、宋国青、卢锋等教授的真知灼见,同时也有王小鲁、魏加宁等著名专家的独特见解。我们谈新常态下的经济增长,是基于中国国情,结合理论发展做出的有针对性的判断。如林毅夫教授提出,中国经济仍然存在十几年年均8%的增长潜力,由此我们必须在思想上克服存在的种种误区。姚洋教授认为,新常态下目前最主要的问题之一,就是创新思维运用于制造业。简单来说,走德国式创新之路,抓住可能的新科技革命的机会,推动中国制造业步入世界前端。周其仁教授提出,要用创新应对经济下行的压力,而创新体现在社会各个方面。魏加宁教授提出,中国经济存在三种可能的预期,而要实现新常态下的经济长期增长,抓紧时间进行改革是不二法门。王小鲁教授提出,新常态下经济下行的根本原因是中国经济结构失衡,解决失衡有助于推动经济长期内的增长。卢峰教授提出,"一带一路"是新常态下中国经济崛起的必然产物,将对全球治理产生积极意义。宋国青教授分析了2015年我国经济增长的可能性,认为将会有7%以上的增长率。本次专题由各位专家学者在中国宏观经济(上海)论坛、深化改革与中国经济长期发展论坛以及全球创新论坛的发言组成,非常感谢上述论坛组织方对本次专题研究的支持。各位专家的观点并不代表本刊的观点,本组文章版权归北京大学国家发展研究院。我们希望通过各位专家学者的精彩解读,起到抛砖引玉的作用,吸引更多讨论参与到本栏目中来。
[Abstract]:The most attractive place in economics lies in its theoretical interpretation of a country, a regional economic development, and the impetus for social progress, namely, economic growth. From the beginning of the western political economy, the early thinkers represented by William Petty, John Locke and David Hume were on the economic growth or more in their respective writings. From the beginning of Adam Smith, economic growth has officially become one of the core issues of various economic schools and different economists, from classical economics to neoclassical economics, from Keynes to new Keynes school, from the Austria school to Neo liberalism, Adam Simy, Malthus, Sai, and West. Simon, Bentham, David Ricardo, John Muller, John Muller, gurger, Hayek, Marshall, Keynes, bear Peter, Sraffa and so on, one more thinker left solid footprints on the path to economic growth. How to operate, but to explain how the rational actor makes a choice through the market in the case of other individuals following the rules of their own behavior "(honchi), that is to say, the theory of economics begins from general to concrete, from rules to behavior. This makes the study of economic growth, from the general, The economic growth determines a nation, the most important component of a nation's international competitiveness, and one of the most important social indicators of all countries. Since the reform and opening up, China's economic growth has come from the aspects of mode, speed, content and nature. Profound changes have taken place in the changes of the times, resulting in a number of different interpretations of China's economic growth. After the proposition of the new normal state of the economy by general secretary Xi Jinping in.2014, the economic growth under the new normal state has become a focus of attention in the academic, practical and other social groups, especially in the new normal state. The slowdown in economic growth and the pain of the transformation of economic development require us to study the economic growth of China from the strategic height and from the reality of the Chinese society. The new normal topic of the current economy is specially authorized by the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, and Yifu Lin, Yao Yang, and Zhou Qiren are published in the paper media. Song Guoqing, Lu Feng and other professors' insight, as well as the unique views of famous experts such as Wang Xiaolu and Wei garning. We talk about the economic growth under the new normal state, which is based on the situation of China and combined with the development of theory. For example, Professor Yifu Lin still has the growth potential of 8% in more than ten years. Professor Yao Yang believes that one of the most important problems now under the new normal is that innovative thinking is used in the manufacturing industry. In a simple way, we take the road of German innovation and seize the opportunity of the possible new technological revolution to push China's manufacturing industry into the front end of the world. Professor Zhou Qiren proposed that it should be used. Innovating to deal with the pressure of the economic downturn and innovation reflected in all aspects of the society. Professor Wei garning proposed that China's economy has three possible expectations, but to realize the long-term economic growth under the new normal state, it is not the second way to grasp the time to reform. Professor Wang Xiaolu proposed that the fundamental reason for the economic downlink under the new normal is the Chinese economic knot. To solve the unbalance of structure, imbalance will help promote economic growth in the long term. The Professor Lu Feng, "The Belt and Road" is the inevitable product of the new normal Chinese economic rise, will have a positive significance for global governance. Professor Song Guoqing analysis of China's economic growth in 2015 the possibility that there will be a growth rate of over 7% this topic by the. The experts and scholars in the Forum on China's macro economy (Shanghai), the Forum on deepening the reform and China's economic long-term development forum and the global innovation forum, are very grateful for the support of the forum organized by the aforementioned forum. The views of the experts do not represent the views of this journal. The copyright of this group is attributed to the National Development Research of Peking University. Academics, we hope that through the brilliant interpretation of experts and scholars, we will play a role in attracting more and more attention and attract more discussions to participate in this column.
【作者单位】：北京大学国家发展研究院;
【分类号】：F124

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