人民币跨境流动对货币政策效应的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-28 11:26

本文选题：人民币跨境流动 + 货币政策效应　；参考：《吉林财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：人民币跨境流动最早始于边境贸易,基于人民币升值预期,为了贸易往来的便利,规避汇率带来成本变动的风险,我国边境地区的贸易双方逐渐以人民币代替美元作为结算货币,直到2009年人民币结算试点成立,人民币跨境流动才拥有了正式的官方结算渠道。2009年之后,人民币结算试点范围不断扩大,随着“一带一路”战略的实施、自贸区和亚投行的建立,人民币跨境流动进入了一个迅速发展地阶段,特别是2015年人民币加入特别提款权后,其在国际上的影响力进一步提升。人民币从结算货币到投资货币再到储备货币,其职能不断丰富,人民币流出和回流的渠道也在不断发展,人民币跨境流动的规模不断取得新的突破,流出的货币一部分回流到国内,一部分在海外积累,形成了人民币离岸市场。不断壮大的流动规模和不断扩展的流动渠道对国内货币和资本市场造成了冲击,影响了货币政策的有效性和独立性。人民币跨境流动的流出渠道主要包括贸易结算,对外投资和货币互换等,回流渠道主要包括离岸市场的存款和人民币债券,境外机构投资境内银行间债券市场,FDI,RQFII,人民币贷款等。由于我国资本账户未完全开放,货币回流机制不健全,人民币的国际认可度还不足够高等因素的制约,导致了人民币流出量和回流量之间存在资金缺口,对国内货币供应量产生了影响,进而影响利率和汇率,增加了货币政策调控难度,影响货币政策效应。本文在传统国际资本流动理论的基础上,参考已有对跨境贸易结算,跨境投资和离岸市场对货币政策影响的研究结论,结合跨境人民币跨境流动发展的现状和特点,从人民币跨境流动的渠道对政策机制和货币政策中介目标的影响的角度,选取2010年4月至2016年10月的月度数据为样本,运用VAR模型检验货币政策效应对人民币跨境流动冲击的效果,得出如下实证结论。跨境人民币资金流动对货币供应量具有直接影响,增加货币政策的调控难度。跨境人民币资金流动通过货币供应量,对在岸市场的利率具有间接的影响。离岸市场人民币利率波动是影响人民币跨境资金流动的重要因素。人民币跨境流动随着在岸市场的汇率波动而波动,离岸市场和在岸市场汇率之间存在联动关系。结合理论分析,人民币跨境流动正朝着更加宽广,更加顺畅的趋势不断发展,而随着人民币跨境流动不断开放,货币政策受到的冲击将是显而易见的。因此,建议设立有序有效的人民币跨境流动机制,并完善跨境流动监管机制,提高货币政策调控变量的敏感度,加强货币政策的有效性。
[Abstract]:The cross-border flow of RMB started with border trade at first. Based on the expectation of RMB appreciation, and in order to facilitate trade exchanges, it avoided the risk of cost changes brought about by the exchange rate. Trade parties in China's border areas have gradually replaced the US dollar with RMB as the settlement currency. Only when the RMB settlement pilot was established in 2009, did the cross-border RMB flow have a formal official settlement channel. After 2009, With the implementation of the "Belt and Road" strategy and the establishment of the Free Trade Zone and the AIIB, the cross-border flow of RMB has entered a stage of rapid development, especially after the RMB joined the SDR in 2015. Its influence in the international community has increased further. The functions of RMB from settlement currency to investment currency to reserve currency are constantly rich, the channels of RMB outflow and return are also developing, and the scale of RMB cross-border flow is constantly making new breakthroughs. Some of the outflow of money returned to the domestic and partly accumulated overseas, forming an offshore market for the renminbi. The growing flow scale and expanding flow channels impact the domestic money and capital markets and affect the effectiveness and independence of monetary policy. The outflow channels of cross-border RMB flow mainly include trade settlement, foreign investment and currency swap, etc. The return channels mainly include deposits and renminbi bonds in the offshore market, foreign institutions investing in domestic inter-bank bond market, FDI / RQFII, RMB loans, and so on. Because the capital account of our country is not completely open, the mechanism of currency reflux is not perfect, and the international recognition of RMB is not high enough, there is a fund gap between the amount of RMB outflow and the amount of reflux. It has an impact on the domestic money supply, which in turn affects the interest rate and exchange rate, increases the difficulty of monetary policy regulation and affects the monetary policy effect. On the basis of the traditional international capital flow theory, and referring to the existing research conclusions on the influence of cross-border trade settlement, cross-border investment and offshore market on monetary policy, this paper combines the current situation and characteristics of cross-border RMB cross-border flows. From the perspective of the influence of the channel of RMB cross-border flow on the policy mechanism and monetary policy intermediation target, the monthly data from April 2010 to October 2016 are selected as samples. This paper uses VAR model to test the effect of monetary policy effect on RMB cross-border flow, and draws the following empirical conclusions. Cross-border RMB capital flow has a direct impact on the money supply, increasing the difficulty of monetary policy control. The cross-border RMB capital flows through the money supply have indirect influence on the interest rate in the onshore market. RMB interest rate fluctuation in offshore market is an important factor affecting RMB cross-border capital flow. The cross-border flow of RMB fluctuates with the exchange rate fluctuation in the onshore market, and there is a linkage between the offshore market and the onshore exchange rate. Combined with theoretical analysis, RMB cross-border flows are moving towards a broader and smoother trend, and with the opening of RMB cross-border flows, the impact on monetary policy will be obvious. Therefore, it is suggested that an orderly and effective mechanism of RMB cross-border flow should be set up, and the supervision mechanism of cross-border flow should be improved to enhance the sensitivity of monetary policy regulation variables and strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6

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