1766年以来永定河汛期径流量与太平洋年代际振荡

发布时间：2018-05-27 03:39

本文选题：永定河 + 汛期径流量　；参考：《中国历史地理论丛》2013年01期

【摘要】：以清代永定河芦沟桥志桩尺寸记录为骨干资料,结合近现代器测水文资料,使用分段建模的方法恢复了1766-2004年永定河芦沟桥断面的汛期径流量序列,序列表明永定河径流量在逐年尺度上具有极大的不稳定性,但其洪峰规模自19世纪以来不断减小,19世纪中期与20世纪初期是最为明显的丰水时段,而1920年代后径流量便明显萎缩,枯水期一直延续至现代。进入1920年代后,流量变化在18世纪后期至19世纪存在的30年准周期消失,水量变化呈现无周期特征。与太平洋年代际振荡指标PDO的比对发现,两者在30-40年尺度上具有明显的反相关关系,天然状态下,太平洋温度升高对应于永定河流域较为干旱的时段。海温异常造成的季风强度变化会导致华北地区降雨格局出现变化,进而影响到永定河芦沟桥以上河段的汛期水量,表明处于季风区北部边缘的永定河水系对于太平洋海温变动具有更大的敏感性。
[Abstract]:Based on the records of log size of Lugou Bridge in Yongding River in Qing Dynasty, combined with the hydrological data of modern instrument, the runoff sequence of Lugou Bridge section in flood season of Yongding River from 1766-2004 was restored by using the method of segmental modeling. The series shows that the runoff of the Yongding River has great instability on a yearly scale, but its Hong Feng scale has been decreasing continuously since the 19th century and the middle of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century are the most obvious periods of abundant water. Since the 1920s, runoff has shrunk significantly, and the dry season has continued into modern times. After 1920s, the flow change disappeared from the late 18th century to the 19th century, and the change of water quantity was aperiodic. Comparing with the PDO, an index of the Pacific Interdecadal oscillation, it is found that there is an obvious inverse correlation between them on the scale of 30-40 years. In the natural state, the temperature rise in the Pacific corresponds to the relatively dry period in the Yongding River basin. The change of monsoon intensity caused by sea surface temperature anomaly will lead to the change of rainfall pattern in North China, which will affect the flood season water quantity in the reach above Lugou Bridge of Yongding River. It shows that the Yongding River system on the northern edge of the monsoon region is more sensitive to the Pacific SST variation.
【作者单位】：陕西师范大学西北历史环境与经济社会发展研究院;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;
【分类号】：K249;P333

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