中国节能目标分解与分配研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 21:15

  本文关键词：中国节能目标分解与分配研究　出处：《对外经济贸易大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 能源需求预测 节能目标匡算 节能目标分解 CGE模型 节能指标体系综合评价方法

【摘要】：通过“十一五”、“十二五”节能目标的顺利实施,中国节能减排取得显著成效,“十二五”期间,我国如期完成单位GDP能耗下降16%的节能目标。然而,中国目前正处于工业化和城市化中期阶段,高速的经济发展带来了能源消费量的急剧上升。与发达国家能耗水平相比,中国还存在一定的差距。“十二五”节能目标是以单位GDP能耗下降为主要目标,“十三五”节能目标包括能源总量的控制和能耗强度的下降。因此,充分参照“十二五”以及历年来中国能源发展形势、节能工作和国外经验基础上,通过深入能源消费总量的因素研究,同时科学合理地预测“十三五”及中长期能源需求和能源强度,并将节能目标分解至每个地市,提出现实可行的实施路径及政策建议。这将有利于优化配置能源消费增量,促进地区产业结构转型,实现经济社会持续健康发展。本论文总结我国经济和能源发展趋势的基础上,通过不同层面和不同部门的划分,利用指数分解方法,研究能源消费影响因素对能源消费总量变动的影响,研究表明能源强度和生产总产值仍是影响能源消费量变动的主要驱动因素,而其影响已缓慢变弱,要有效控制能源消费总量和单位GDP能耗,优化产业结构和能源结构是今后节能工作的重点。同时,本文设置经济转型和低碳发展双约束下的情景,通过采用CGE模型和人均能耗法预测中国“十三五”以及中长期经济和能源发展态势,从而确定中国“十三五”节能目标。从CGE模型结果分析可知,在国家政策强约束下,中国能源消费总量可以控制到50亿吨标准煤左右,而通过对比世界主要国家的情况,本文采用人均能耗对比分析法预测中国2020年能源消费总量,结果显示在正常能源消费情景下,2020年中国的能源消费总量为64亿吨标准煤,这远超出我国资源承载力和减排承诺的要求。综合考虑中国“十三五”期间经济转型难度较大,经济新动能有待形成规模的实际状况,建议中国“十三五”能源消费总量控制目标为50亿吨标准煤,能源强度下降的目标为15%。同时,本文基于遗传算法可提高判断矩阵一致性的优点,采用遗传算法对传统层次分析法进行修正,同时测算各主特征向量即各影响因素的权重,研究结果表明节能必要性对我国节能目标分解影响最大,权重为53.33%;节能能力次之,权重为33.34%;节能难度相对较小,分别为13.33%。单位GDP能耗、单位工业增加值能耗、人均GDP、技术市场成交额与等影响因素对于准则层影响较大。采用层次分析法,基于我国能源消费量的控制范围,给出中国“十三五”节能目标方案中的能源强度下降目标地区层面的分解结果方案。方案中分为五类地区,一类地区:天津市、上海市、广东省、浙江省、江苏省、北京市;二类地区:山东、辽宁省、河北省;三类地区:重庆市、福建省、内蒙古自治区、山西省、湖南省、安徽省、江西省、湖北省、河南省、陕西省;四类地区:甘肃省、青海省、湖北省、四川省、贵州省;五类地区:海南省、吉林省、黑龙江省、广西壮族自治区、新疆。从地区分解结果方案看,经济发展阶段、生产技术水平等经济因素是制约节能目标完成的主要因素。而对比“十一五”、“十二五”看,工业能耗仍是节能目标分解的关键,因此工业部门的节能依旧是是中国完成中长期节能目标的重要抓手,同时既满足地区发展经济所需,又在能力范畴内有效完成地区节能目标也是分解方案设计需要平衡的。
[Abstract]:Through the "11th Five-Year", "the smooth implementation of 12th Five-Year" energy-saving targets, China energy-saving emission reduction achieved remarkable results, "12th Five-Year" period, China's energy saving target completion of unit GDP energy consumption by 16%. However, China is currently in the middle stage of industrialization and city, rapid economic development has brought a sharp rise in energy consumption. Compared with the developed countries. Chinese energy consumption level, there is still a gap. "12th Five-Year" energy-saving goal is the unit of GDP energy consumption decreased as the main target, "the decline in 13th Five-Year" energy-saving targets including the total energy control and energy intensity. Therefore, full reference to the "12th Five-Year", over the years China energy development situation, energy saving work and on the basis of the experience abroad, through in-depth study on factors of total energy consumption, and prediction of "13th Five-Year" and the long-term energy demand and reasonable The source strength, and energy saving target decomposition to each city, put forward the implementation path and policy suggestions. This will help to optimize the allocation of energy consumption, and promote the transformation of regional industrial structure, to achieve sustained and healthy economic and social development. This thesis summarizes our country economy and energy development trend, through different levels different departments and divisions, using the index decomposition method, influence factors on the influence of energy consumption in total energy consumption changes, the results show that the main driver of change of energy intensity and production output is still affecting the energy consumption factors, and its influence has been slowly weakening, in order to effectively control the total energy consumption and energy consumption per unit of GDP, the optimization of the industrial structure and energy structure is the focus of future energy saving. At the same time, this paper set up the economic transformation and low carbon development under the double constraints of the situation, by using the CGE model and the per capita Forecast Chinese "13th Five-Year" and the long-term development of economy and energy consumption situation, so as to determine the China "13th Five-Year" energy-saving goals. From the analysis of the result of CGE model, in the national policy under strong constraints, China can control the total energy consumption to 50 tons of standard coal, and through the comparison of the main countries in the world, the paper adopts the prediction the total energy consumption in 2020 Chinese per capita energy consumption comparative analysis, the results showed that in normal energy consumption situation, 2020 Chinese the total energy consumption of 64 tons of standard coal, which is far beyond our resource bearing capacity and emission reduction commitment requirements. Considering the China "difficult economic transition" in 13th Five-Year during the great economic, new energy to be formed the size of the actual situation, proposed Chinese 13th Five-Year total energy consumption control target of 50 tons of standard coal, energy intensity target for 15%. At the same time, the genetic algorithm can improve the consistency of judgment matrix based on the advantages, using genetic algorithm to modify the traditional analytical method, and estimates the main feature vector is the weight of various factors, the results of the study show that the necessity of energy saving ring for the largest of China's energy-saving target decomposition, the weight is 53.33%; energy saving ability, the weight is 33.34%; such difficulty is relatively small, respectively 13.33%. unit GDP energy consumption per unit of industrial added value of energy consumption, per capita GDP, factors of technology market turnover and effect has great influence on the rule layer. Using AHP, the control range of China's energy consumption based on the decomposition of the energy intensity are China scheme "in 13th Five-Year" energy saving target falls in the target area is divided into five levels. In the scheme, a kind of area: Tianjin City, Shanghai City, Guangdong Province, Zhejiang Province, Jiangsu Province, Beijing City, two; Area: Shandong, Liaoning Province, Hebei province; three areas: Chongqing City, Fujian Province, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Shanxi Province, Hunan Province, Anhui Province, Jiangxi Province, Hubei Province, Henan Province, Shaanxi province; four regions: Gansu Province, Qinghai Province, Hubei Province, Sichuan Province, Guizhou province; five area: Hainan Province, Jilin Province, Heilongjiang Province, the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Xinjiang. The decomposition results from regional plan, the stage of economic development, the level of production technology and other economic factors are the main factors restricting the completion of energy-saving targets. And the comparison of "11th Five-Year", "12th Five-Year", a key industrial energy consumption is still energy-saving target decomposition, thus saving energy the industrial sector is still an important starting point for long-term energy-saving targets Chinese completed, both meet the economic development needs, but also in the category area is effectively complete energy-saving target decomposition scheme design need to be balanced.

【学位授予单位】：对外经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F206
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本文编号：1406825