国际铁矿石供需格局逆转后中国铁矿石资源战略储备研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 13:34

  本文关键词：国际铁矿石供需格局逆转后中国铁矿石资源战略储备研究　出处：《昆明理工大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 铁矿石 供应格局 战略储备 最优规模 实施策略

【摘要】：钢铁行业在中国经济结构中占有极其重要的地位,铁矿石的安全供应不仅对中国钢铁行业的稳定运行和发展具有非常重要的意义,对中国整体经济的可持续发展和社会稳定也起到举足轻重的作用。从全球范围来看,铁矿石是仅次于石油的第二大生产原材料商品。对于中国经济而言,铁矿石资源的重要性不亚于石油。中国的钢铁生产以长流程钢为主,粗钢产量中90%的铁元素来自于对铁矿石冶炼,而国内现有铁矿石资源(自产矿)品位低、及开发成本高的现实态势,迫使中国钢铁企业大量进口铁矿石,继而全行业对外依存度逐年攀高。尤其是进入21世纪的10余年期间,超过80%的铁矿石从境外进口(进口矿)已成为常态。与此同时,海外铁矿石低成本垄断的供应格局也已形成,中国已拥有的海外权益矿(境外权益矿)也生产成本过高的原因几乎全军覆没。而我国铁矿石进口资源地过于集中,进口矿石量的80%被国际矿业巨头所掌控,政治、金融等潜在的不确定性供给风险正在剧增,未来中国铁矿石资源价格的剧烈波动、供应中断等风险难以回避。为此,快速寻找到有效保障中国钢铁行业铁矿石资源持续而稳定发展的供应策略及实施方案已迫在眉睫。本论文结合国务院发展研究中心“资源约束下的中国产业结构调整”项目目标任务选题,立足于中国铁矿石供给安全保障现状,借鉴日本等钢铁强国的铁矿石供应经验,以中国的铁矿石供应结构和市场运行中存在的安全风险、关键不确定性因素为切入点,在大量的实证调查和综合分析基础上,采用文献调研、理论分析、比较研究、模型预测及实证与规范相结合的方法,刻画中国铁矿石战略储备实施过程中不确定因素的影响和作用,对其系列关键指标进行测算,进而提出系统的战略储备策略。本次主要取得以下主要成果与认识：(1)综合分析全球及中国铁矿石资源的分布、特性及生产贸易现状的基础上,查明了我国铁矿石供应存在结构不合理和对外依存度高的安全隐患的原因,提出现阶段直接购买铁矿石或成品矿产,建立铁矿石战略储备是现阶段破解我国铁矿石供应安全的唯一有效途径。(2)结合中国铁矿石自产矿、境外权益矿及进口矿等供应格局现状分析,提出并设计了一种景气分析预测方法,并应用于对中国粗钢产量和铁矿石供需规模的短期、长期预测,为铁矿石储备最优规模确定提供了定量化的数据支撑。该方法预测准确性高,可为粗钢产量的长期预测提供了校正标准。经铁平衡反推法,测算出中国未来5～10年的铁矿石(以Fe2O3含量为62%的铁精矿核算)年均需求量将保持在11～12亿吨左右的规模水平。(3)参照国际石油储备经验以及日本等钢铁强国的铁矿石供应体系,以政府服务社会实现消费者剩余利润最大化为目标,立足铁矿石资源战略储备面临的基本问题,权衡铁矿石供应中断风险损失和储备收益,设计构建了中国铁矿石战略储备最优规模的预测模型。对模型的稳定性进行测算,得知中断规模、以及铁矿石价格需求弹性是我国铁矿石战略储备最优规模的主要影响因素。预测表明,如发生中断规模为21天的10年一遇的铁矿石供应中断危机,中国需要储备3.1亿吨铁矿石。(4)借鉴以往经典的石油战略储备研究,以铁矿石储备成本和期望风险损失最小为目标,设计构建了中国铁矿石资源战略储备随机动态规划模型(SIOR),可有效测算铁矿石战略储备的吸储、释放和补仓规模。推算结果表明,如未来铁矿石供应中没有发生中断情况下,中国铁矿石战略储备的规模应从2016年起建立规模为2.32亿吨的战略资源储备,2016年储备量10500万吨,接下来的每年储备量逐渐减少,至2020年达到最优战略储备规模；如在未来铁矿石供应中断概率较高且程度较严重时,中国铁矿石资源战略储备量将增加至3.1亿吨,2016年储备量11500万吨,接下来的每年储备量也比基础状态下的储备量要多,至2022年达到最优战略储备规模。(5)提出从国家层面建立适当规模的铁矿石战略储备,才是解决铁矿石供应安全问题的根本手段,并提出了中国铁矿石战略储备的实施策略建议。(6)本次提供的中国铁矿石战略储备的方法体系和策略,可为中国钢铁行业及相关产业的稳定运行,规避铁矿石贸易风险,保障国民经济的稳定健康发展,具有一定的指导作用。本研究对其它矿产资源的供应安全、相关战略和政策措施的制定,也具有较强的借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:The iron and steel industry plays a very important role in the China economic structure, security of supply of iron ore has very important significance for stable operation and development of China steel industry, sustainable development of Chinese overall economic and social stability has played an important role. From a global perspective, the iron ore is second after oil production the raw material goods. For China economy, the importance of iron ore resources as oil. China steel production process with long steel, iron steel output in 90% from the iron ore smelting, and domestic iron ore resources (ore production) low grade, high development cost and realistic situation the iron and steel enterprises, Chinese forced a large number of imported iron ore, and then the whole industry dependency rise year by year. Especially during the 10 years to twenty-first Century, more than 80% of iron ore from abroad Imports (import ore) has become the norm. At the same time, the low cost of overseas iron ore monopoly supply pattern has been formed, Chinese has overseas mining rights (overseas mining rights) also produce high cost reasons. But our country almost The whole army was wiped out. imports of iron ore resources are too concentrated, the amount of the imported iron ore 80% control. The international mining giant political uncertainty, risk of financial supply potential is increased, future volatility China iron ore prices, supply interruption risk is unavoidable. Therefore, the supply strategy and implementation plan to quickly find the iron ore resources in the effective protection of China's steel industry sustained and stable development in this thesis is imminent. The State Council Development Research Center "under resource constraints China industrial structure adjustment" project objectives and tasks based on the topic, China iron ore supply security situation, borrow The supply of iron ore in Japan iron and steel power experience, security risks exist in the iron ore supply structure and the market China operation, the key factors of uncertainty as the breakthrough point, in a large number of empirical investigation and comprehensive analysis on the basis of the literature research, theoretical analysis, comparative study, model prediction method and empirical and normative the combination of the uncertain factors and the role of characterization strategy of Chinese iron ore reserves of stone in the process of implementation, to calculate the range of key indicators, and then put forward the strategic reserve strategy. This system mainly has the following main results and understanding: (1) the distribution of global and China comprehensive analysis of iron ore resources, basic characteristics the production and trade situation, find out the reasons of China's iron ore supply structure is not reasonable and the high degree of dependence on foreign security risks, there is the direct purchase of iron ore or ore products Production, establish the strategic reserves of iron ore is the only effective way to crack the safe supply of iron ore in China. (2) combined with iron ore mining production Chinese, analysis of the current situation of the supply pattern of overseas mining rights and import ore, we propose and design a boom analysis prediction method, and applied to the scale of supply and demand China crude steel production of iron ore and short-term, long-term prediction for iron ore reserves provides quantitative data support to determine the optimal size. This method can provide high prediction accuracy, the calibration standard for long-term prediction of crude steel production. The iron balance backstepping method, calculate the Chinese future 5 ~ 10 years of iron ore (in Fe2O3 the content of iron concentrate) accounting for 62% of the annual demand will remain at 11 ~ 12 tons scale level. (3) the iron ore supply system according to the experience of international petroleum reserve and Japan iron and steel power, to achieve social service government Consumer surplus profit maximization as the goal, based on the basic problems of iron ore resources strategic reserves, balance of iron ore supply disruption risk loss and reserve earnings, design and construct the prediction model of China iron ore strategic reserves the optimal scale. To evaluate the stability of the model, that interrupts the scale, and the iron ore price elasticity of demand is the main factor effect of the optimal size of the strategic reserves of iron ore in China. The prediction shows that such as disruption of iron ore supply disruptions in the scale of the crisis for the 21 day of the 10 years, Chinese need to reserve 3.1 tonnes of iron ore. (4) Research on the strategic petroleum reserve classic past, iron ore reserves and to minimize the cost of expected risk loss as the target design and construct the strategic reserves of iron ore resources Chinese stochastic dynamic programming model (SIOR), can effectively measure the strategic reserves of iron ore deposit taking, release and re. Die. The results of calculation show that if the supply of iron ore in future without interruption, a scale of 2.32 tons of strategic resource reserve strategy China iron ore stone scale from 2016 2016, reserves of 105 million tons, the annual amount of reserves next gradually reduced to 2020 to achieve the optimal strategy as in the future iron ore reserve scale; stone supply disruption probability is higher and the degree is serious, the strategic reserves of iron ore resources Chinese volume will increase to 3.1 tons in 2016, reserves 115 million tons, the annual amount of reserves next than the reserves of the basic state more, to 2022 to achieve the optimal strategic reserve scale. (5) proposed the establishment of appropriate strategic reserves of iron ore the scale from the national level, is a fundamental means to solve the problem of security of supply of iron ore, and puts forward some suggestions of implementing strategy strategy. Chinese stone reserves of iron ore (6) provided this time System and methods Chinese strategic reserves of iron ore, for the stable operation of Chinese steel industry and related industries, to avoid the risk of iron ore trade, to ensure the stable and healthy development of the national economy, has a guiding role. This study supply security of other mineral resources, formulate relevant strategies and measures, also has a strong reference.

【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F416.1
，

本文编号：1409748