人民币升值背景下中国加工贸易顺差持续扩大之谜

发布时间：2018-03-01 11:32

本文关键词： 人民币升值加工贸易成本结构协整分析　出处：《陕西师范大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：人民币升值是我国经济发展面临的长期热点议题,升值的效应集中体现在贸易以及投资领域,尤其对贸易影响巨大。2011年中国加工贸易额达13052.2亿美元,同年中国加工贸易顺差为3656.2亿美元,然而当年的贸易顺差总额为1551.3亿美元,加工贸易顺差是贸易顺差总额的两倍还多,由此可见,加工贸易顺差己成为我国贸易顺差的最重要来源。我国多年积累的“顺差性”贸易收支失衡是人民币升值的主要来源。从历史来看,2005年7月以来,人民币持续升值,至2011年12月兑美元的名义汇率已经升值接近30%,而这种升值预期过程仍将持续。为何在人民币升值的背景下,我国的加工贸易顺差还在持续扩大?人民币升值能否改变我国贸易收支失衡的状况?未来应该如何选择升值路径,以减少升值的负面影响?文章通过研究汇率变动的贸易收支效应,尝试解答上述系列问题。本文从理论和实证两个方面来破解人民币升值背景下,加工贸易顺差持续扩大之迷。理论方面,首先阐述实际有效汇率相关理论,以及实际有效汇率的测算方法,然后介绍了汇率传递的相关理论,以及它是如何影响加工贸易,最后基于加工贸易自身的特点,应用成本结构分析的方法说明了人民币升值对加工贸易进出口影响的作用机理。得出的结论是,由于加工贸易两头在外的特殊性,人民币的升值对加工贸易的影响很小,相反有可能扩大加工贸易的顺差,进而使我国的贸易顺差再度扩大。实证方面,本文选取加工贸易进出口、FDI、国民收入、人民币实际有效汇率、贸易政策等变量,首先对这些变量的平稳性进行了检验,结果发现这些变量一阶差分为平稳序列,然后用协整的方法对这些变量的长期均衡关系进行了检验,结果发现,加工贸易进出口分别与人民币实际有效汇率、FDI、经济增长、政策变量具有长期均衡关系,其中政策变量对加工贸易进出口的影响最大,人民币实际有效汇率和加工贸易进口有负相关关系,和加工贸易出口有正相关关系。
[Abstract]:RMB appreciation is a long-term hot topic in China's economic development. The effect of RMB appreciation is concentrated in the fields of trade and investment, especially on trade. In 2011, China's processing trade volume reached one tillion three hundred and five billion two hundred and twenty million US dollars. In the same year, China's processing trade surplus was US $365.62 billion, but that year's total trade surplus was US $155.13 billion. This shows that the processing trade surplus is more than twice the total amount of trade surplus. Processing trade surplus has become the most important source of China's trade surplus. The "surplus" trade imbalance accumulated for many years is the main source of RMB appreciation. By December 2011, the nominal exchange rate against the US dollar had risen close to 30 percent, and the process of such appreciation was expected to continue. Why is China's processing trade surplus still expanding against the background of the appreciation of the RMB? Can the appreciation of RMB change the imbalance of China's Trade balance? How should we choose the path of appreciation in the future in order to reduce the negative impact of appreciation? This paper tries to answer the above questions by studying the trade balance effect of exchange rate change. Under the background of RMB appreciation, this paper tries to solve the puzzle of the continuous expansion of processing trade surplus from both theoretical and empirical aspects. In theory, the theory of real effective exchange rate and the calculation method of real effective exchange rate are expounded, then the relevant theory of exchange rate transmission and how it affects processing trade are introduced. Finally, based on the characteristics of processing trade, The mechanism of the effect of RMB appreciation on the import and export of processing trade is explained by using the method of cost structure analysis. The conclusion is that the appreciation of RMB has little effect on processing trade due to the particularity of the two ends of processing trade. On the contrary, it is possible to expand the surplus of processing trade, and then expand our trade surplus again. In the empirical aspect, this paper selects the variables of import and export FDI, national income, real effective exchange rate of RMB, trade policy and so on to test the stability of these variables. The results show that the first order difference of these variables is a stationary sequence. Then the long-term equilibrium relationship of these variables is tested by cointegration method. The results show that the import and export of processing trade and the real effective exchange rate of RMB FDI, economic growth, policy variables have long-term equilibrium relationship. Among them, policy variables have the greatest influence on the import and export of processing trade, the real effective exchange rate of RMB has a negative correlation with the import of processing trade, and there is a positive correlation between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the export of processing trade.
【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.68;F832.6

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