基于前景理论的突发事件应急响应的风险决策方法

发布时间：2018-05-26 09:11

本文选题：突发事件 + 应急响应　；参考：《系统工程理论与实践》2012年05期

【摘要】：针对应急方案对突发事件发展演变存在干预并可能导致不同的人员伤亡和财产损失的情形,提出了一种基于前景理论的应急响应风险决策方法.首先,描述了突发事件应急响应的风险决策问题;然后,基于前景理论的思想,计算突发事件不同情景的综合价值,即定量化描述针对不同情景的人员伤亡和财产损失的决策者综合心理感知;进一步地,计算突发事件不同情景的权重,即定量化描述针对不同情景出现的重要性程度的决策者心理感知;在此基础上,依据情景综合价值、情景权重和应急方案的成本投入,计算各应急方案的综合前景值,并依据综合前景值的大小确定应急方案排序.最后,通过一个案例研究说明了该方法的可行性与有效性.
[Abstract]:An emergency response risk decision method based on prospect theory is proposed to deal with the situation that emergency plan interferes with the development and evolution of emergencies and may lead to different casualties and property losses. First of all, the risk decision problem of emergency response is described, and then, based on the idea of foreground theory, the comprehensive value of different scenarios of emergency is calculated. That is to say, the decision makers who quantitatively describe the casualties and property losses in different scenarios have a comprehensive psychological perception; furthermore, the weights of different scenarios for emergencies are calculated. That is to say, quantificationally describe the psychological perception of decision-makers in view of the importance of different scenarios, and calculate the comprehensive foreground value of each emergency plan according to the comprehensive value of the scenario, the weight of the scenario and the cost input of the emergency plan. And according to the size of the comprehensive foreground value to determine the emergency program order. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the method are illustrated by a case study.
【作者单位】：东北大学
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(90924016,71001020,71071029,71101020) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(N100406012)
【分类号】：C934

【共引文献】