中国赴日旅游需求的决定因素

发布时间：2018-04-16 21:02

本文选题：赴日旅游需求 + 决定因素　；参考：《北京外国语大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来中国赴日旅游在中日两国都成为了热门话题。2010年以来中国赴日旅游人次急剧增加。到2015年为止,中国已经超过韩国成为最大的赴日旅游客源地。同时,从中国游客在日本大量的购物支出中诞生的"爆买"一词也成为了日本2015年的年度流行语。可见中国赴日旅游已经成为一个无法忽视的课题。但是,赴日旅游方面的先行研究较少,且集中于对日本观光政策的总结,以及对旅游数据的描述,缺少定量研究。本文旨在通过对宏观数据的回归分析,找出赴日旅游需求的决定因素,希望可以填补在赴日旅游的研究中一部分的空白。本文通过日本国家旅游局(JNTO)及日本国土交通省观光局所发布的旅游数据和报告分析了中国赴日旅游的动向和特征,总结中国赴日旅游特征如下:中国游客赴日旅游集中在春节,赏樱季节和暑假。全体赴日游客来看,主要目的在于享受日本的食物,体验日本文化以及游览风景名胜。而中国游客赴日旅游最大的目的在于购物,且中国游客人均购物费用是全体赴日游客人均购物费用的两倍。从客源地来看,中国赴日游客主要来自于北京,上海,广东,江苏等东南沿海较为富裕的地区。从客源层来看,中国赴日游客主要是20到40岁之间的年轻群体,且女性较多。旅游线路以黄金路线(东京,箱根,富士山,名古屋,京都,大阪)为主,同时冲绳、北海道在中国游客中也较受欢迎。虽然中国赴日游客多数为第一次赴日旅游,但是有过赴日旅游经验的"回头客"每年都在增加。同时,本文还使用城镇居民人均可支配收入,汇率,中日韩三国的相对价格,宣传费用等变量对日渐增长的赴日旅游需求进行了回归分析。结论如下:汇率对中国赴日旅游需求的影响最大,其次为收入变量即城镇居民人均可支配收入。这与中国游客赴日旅游主要目的为购物相符。同时,由于中国赴韩游客的7成以上目的在于购物,本文将赴韩旅游作为赴日旅游的"代替品变量"加入模型,但并没有获得统计学上有意义的结果。代表制度因素的两个变量——宣传费用及放宽签证条件对赴日旅游需求都有正面的影响。在分析制度因素的时候,发现赴日旅游中可能存在明显的口碑效应。最后,本文加入了 2003年"非典""、2008年世界金融危机、2011年东日本大地震、2012年购买钓鱼岛(日本称尖阁诸岛)事件四个虚拟变量来控制外部冲击对赴日旅游的影响。这四个外部冲击对赴日旅游均有负面影响。其中,2008年世界金融危机对赴日旅游影响并不大,而2012年的购买钓鱼岛事件在中国掀起了很大的反日情绪,赴日旅游由此受到了冲击。由此可见,中国赴日旅游受经济因素影响的同时,中日关系等政治因素的影响也不容忽视。而本文的不足点在于侧重经济因素的影响,无法反映出文化因素对于旅游需求的影响。在将来的研究中,还需要通过定性分析引入一些无法反应在宏观数据上的影响因素。
[Abstract]:Chinese travel to Japan has become a hot topic in both countries in recent years, with a sharp increase in Chinese travel to Japan since 2010.By 2015, China had overtaken South Korea as the largest tourist destination to Japan.At the same time, the word "boom buying", born from Chinese tourists spending heavily on Japanese shopping, has become Japan's annual buzzword in 2015.It can be seen that China's tourism to Japan has become a problem that can not be ignored.However, the first research on tourism to Japan is less, and it focuses on the summary of Japanese tourism policy and the description of tourism data, which is lack of quantitative research.The purpose of this paper is to find out the determinants of tourism demand in Japan by regression analysis of macro data, hoping to fill the gap in the study of tourism to Japan.This paper analyzes the trends and characteristics of Chinese tourism to Japan through the tourism data and reports issued by Japan National Tourism Administration (JNTO) and the Tourism Bureau of Japan's Ministry of Land and Transportation, and summarizes the characteristics of Chinese tourism to Japan as follows: Chinese tourists travel to Japan mainly during the Spring Festival.Cherry season and summer vacation.The main purpose of all visitors to Japan is to enjoy Japanese food, experience Japanese culture and visit scenic spots.The biggest purpose of Chinese tourists to Japan is shopping, and the average shopping cost of Chinese tourists is twice as much as that of all tourists.From the source of tourists, Chinese tourists to Japan mainly come from Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu and other more affluent areas along the southeast coast.From the source level, Chinese tourists to Japan are mainly young people between 20 and 40 years old, and more women.The main routes are gold routes (Tokyo, Hakone, Fuji, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka), and Okinawa and Hokkaido are also popular among Chinese tourists.Although most Chinese tourists to Japan are first-time visitors, the number of "repeat visitors" with experience in Japan is increasing every year.At the same time, using the variables of per capita disposable income of urban residents, exchange rate, relative price of China, Japan and Korea, propaganda cost and so on, the paper makes regression analysis to the increasing demand for tourism to Japan.The conclusions are as follows: the exchange rate has the greatest influence on the tourism demand of China to Japan, followed by the income variable, that is, the per capita disposable income of urban residents.This is consistent with the fact that the main purpose of Chinese tourists to Japan is shopping.At the same time, since more than 70% of Chinese tourists to Korea are aimed at shopping, this paper adds it to the model as a "substitute variable" for tourism to Japan, but does not obtain statistically significant results.The cost of publicity and the relaxation of visa conditions have a positive effect on the demand for travel to Japan.In the analysis of institutional factors, it is found that there may be obvious word-of-mouth effect in tourism to Japan.Finally, this paper adds four virtual variables to control the impact of external shocks on tourism to Japan, including the 2003 SARS, the 2008 world financial crisis, the 2011 East Japan earthquake, and the 2012 purchase of the Diaoyu Islands (the Senkaku Islands in Japan).These four external shocks have a negative impact on travel to Japan.Among them, the 2008 world financial crisis did not have a great impact on tourism to Japan, and the purchase of Diaoyu Islands in 2012 aroused great anti-Japanese sentiment in China.It can be seen that while China's tourism to Japan is influenced by economic factors, the influence of political factors such as Sino-Japanese relations should not be ignored.However, the deficiency of this paper lies in focusing on the influence of economic factors, which can not reflect the influence of cultural factors on tourism demand.In the future research, it is necessary to introduce some influential factors which can not be reflected in macro data through qualitative analysis.
【学位授予单位】：北京外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F592

【相似文献】