基于旅游全要素生产率的陕西旅游供给侧改革结构优化研究

发布时间：2018-05-06 04:33

本文选题：旅游全要素生产率 + Malmlquist指数　；参考：《西安外国语大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：习近平总书记于2015年11月10日提出“供给侧改革”,表明我国政府经济管理的焦点正逐渐从需求管理向供给管理转变。旅游业作为战略性支柱产业,陕西作为旅游大省要向旅游强省进行转变,应优化旅游业自身结构,优化旅游业在国民经济与社会结构中的地位,推动旅游供给侧结构改革。结合新供给经济和旅游供需的理论方法和研究进展,利用DEA方法中的Malmquist指数模型对陕西省十个主要城市从2010到2015年这6年间旅游全要素生产率的动态演进规律进行评价,相应的实证分析有助于更准确的判断旅游业供给侧改革面临的问题,也能够提供一定的理论依据和支撑。根据实证分析结果对陕西旅游的供给现状进行梳理并总结问题,提出更适合陕西旅游的供给模式和优化路径。研究认为:1.陕西旅游的全要素生产率呈波动态势,总体呈现增长趋势,通过TFP变化指数发现陕西旅游全要素生产率在这6年的时间里平均增长了7.2个百分点,其中技术效率、技术变化、纯技术效率变化和规模效率均有一定的改善和提升,但是技术效率、纯技术效率变化和规模效率的数值历年中有下降的浮动变化,增长变化均处于非常缓慢的趋势。2.陕西旅游全要素生产率的变化特征分为三个类型,第一类为良好型的宝鸡、咸阳、渭南和汉中地区,旅游全要素生产率指数值基本高于平均值,发展状态趋于良好,旅游效率相对产生较高效率;第二类为平稳型的西安、铜川、延安地区,旅游全要素生产率指数值均在平均值左右浮动,发展趋势均处缓慢状态,在各方面均有很大的提升潜力;第三类为波动型的安康、商洛、榆林地区,旅游全要素生产率呈现较大的波动趋势,在各项指标方面相比其他地市较差,在一定程度上阻碍其旅游的有效发展。3根据回归分析检验结果来看,影响陕西旅游全要素生产率的因素中星级酒店数,旅行社数量,旅游总收入对旅游全要素生产率的影响相比其他要素更为显著。分别来看三类地区的影响因素:第三产业从业人数、A级景区个数、星级酒店数量对变化良好地区的旅游全要素生产率的影响关系更大;A级景区个数、星级酒店数量和旅游总人数对变化缓慢地区的旅游全要素生产率的影响关系更大;第三产业从业人数、旅行社数量和旅游总收入对变化浮动较大地区的旅游全要素生产率的影响关系更大。4.从省域层面提出的优化路径是继续加大旅游投资以及优化旅游消费环境,不同地区类型的优化路径侧重点不同,良好型地区着重从旅游人才资源开发和旅游政策制度优化两个方面提出优化路径;平稳型地区着重从优化旅游产业产品结构和优化供给体系质量效率两个方面提出优化路径;波动型地区着重从加强旅游资源差异化管理和改善旅游产业经营模式两个方面提出优化路径。
[Abstract]:General Secretary Xi Jinping put forward "supply-side reform" on November 10, 2015, indicating that the focus of economic management of our government is gradually changing from demand management to supply management. As a strategic pillar industry, Shaanxi, as a big tourism province, should change to a strong tourism province, should optimize the structure of tourism itself, optimize the position of tourism in the national economy and social structure, and promote the reform of the supply-side structure of tourism. Combined with the theoretical methods and research progress of new supply economy and tourism supply and demand, this paper evaluates the dynamic evolution of tourism total factor productivity (TFP) in ten major cities of Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2015 by using the Malmquist index model of DEA method. The corresponding empirical analysis is helpful to judge the problems faced by the supply-side reform of tourism industry more accurately, and to provide some theoretical basis and support. According to the results of empirical analysis, this paper combs and summarizes the present situation of tourism supply in Shaanxi Province, and puts forward a more suitable supply mode and optimized path for tourism in Shaanxi Province. The study thinks that 1: 1. The total factor productivity (TFP) of Shaanxi tourism shows a fluctuating trend and an overall increasing trend. Through the TFP change index, it is found that the total factor productivity of Shaanxi tourism has increased by an average of 7.2 percentage points in the past six years, in which technological efficiency and technological change have been increased. The change of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency have certain improvement and enhancement, but the technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency change and scale efficiency change have the downward fluctuation change in the numerical calendar years, the growth change is all in the very slow trend. The variation characteristics of tourism total factor productivity in Shaanxi can be divided into three types. The first type is good Baoji, Xianyang, Weinan and Hanzhong regions. The total factor productivity index of tourism is basically higher than the average value, and the development state tends to be good. Tourism efficiency is relatively high; the second category is the smooth type of Xi'an, Tongchuan, Yan'an region, the tourism total factor productivity index values all fluctuate around the average, the trend of development is slow. The third category is fluctuating Ankang, Shangluo and Yulin areas, the total factor productivity of tourism shows a large fluctuation trend, and is worse than other cities in every index. According to the results of regression analysis, the number of star hotels, the number of travel agencies, the number of star hotels, and the number of travel agencies affect the total factor productivity of tourism in Shaanxi Province. The effect of total tourism income on total factor productivity is more significant than that of other factors. The influence factors of the three regions are as follows: the number of tertiary industry employees and the number of A-grade scenic spots, the number of star-rated hotels has a greater impact on the total factor productivity of tourism in the changing areas, and the number of A-grade scenic spots has a greater impact on the number of A-grade scenic spots. The relationship between the number of star hotels and the total number of tourists has a greater impact on the total factor productivity of tourism in slow changing areas. The relationship between the number of travel agencies and total tourism income on the total factor productivity of tourism in fluctuating areas is greater. 4. 4. The optimal path proposed from the provincial level is to continue to increase tourism investment and optimize the environment of tourism consumption. The good regions put forward the optimized path from two aspects: the development of tourism talent resources and the optimization of tourism policy system, and the smooth regions put forward the optimized paths from two aspects: optimizing the structure of tourism industry products and optimizing the quality and efficiency of supply system. The fluctuating region puts forward the optimized path from two aspects: strengthening the differentiated management of tourism resources and improving the management mode of tourism industry.
【学位授予单位】：西安外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F592.7

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