引入参照点的旅行时间价值分析

发布时间：2018-07-05 14:24

本文选题：旅行时间价值 + 参照点依赖　；参考：《北京交通大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：摘要：在运输经济学中,研究旅行时间价值的重要性显而易见。早在20世纪60年代,学者们就已经对旅行时间价值进行了大量的理论与实证研究。一般研究认为,旅行时间价值是不易受到决策主体的经历、预期或禀赋影响的,其价值的节约是提高时间资源利用效率的最直接形式,同时也是促进交通运输业不断发展的基本动力。然而,由于旅行时间本身的不可逆性与不可交易性,又会使其价值评判在很大程度带有主观性,这可以体现为大多数旅行者为旅行时间损失和收益所赋予的价值是不对称的：损失的旅行时间价值要高于收益。伴随着经济的高速发展与交通运输技术的不断成熟完善,人们对旅行时间价值的评价观念已经发生了重大转向：从单纯节约的视角转变为越来越强调包括准时可靠在内的损失厌恶视角。而从这种转向来看,旅行时间价值对于人们的意义更应该在于不要让旅行时间延误造成更大的损失。同时,这种评价观念的转向也意味着交通运输业的发展面临着重要的阶段性转变。因此,从损失厌恶视角对旅行时间价值进行重新审视和计量也就具有了重要的理论与现实意义。在利用效用理论研究旅行时间价值的众多研究中,由于很少有学者从损失厌恶的视角来考察旅行时间价值,这就导致了传统分析方法存在一个缺陷——忽视了参照点的重要作用。因此,从这种意义上来说,传统的旅行时间价值研究应该是一种单一视角的静态分析思路和方法。基于此,作者在假设交通运输需求作为一种衍生需求的前提下,从出行选择角度出发对传统旅行时问价值研究范式进行修正,其主要工作与研究观点如下：一、从出行选择角度出发,创新性地将参照点引入旅行时间-运输费用替代关系的无差异曲线分析中,并依据参照点位置对旅行时间进行了“收益”和“损失”区分,进而建立了一个损失与节约并举的双重视角旅行时间价值分析框架,来阐释人们在评价旅行时间价值时的路径依赖现象与损失厌恶效应。而从深化研究的视角来看,该分析框架有助于进一步阐述旅行时间价值的可靠性与非匀质性,并得出相对旅行时间价值对出行选择影响更大的推论。二,利用参照点依赖分析框架改进传统的旅行时间价值研究模型,有助于验证普遍存在的旅行时间价值损失厌恶效应。同时,该模型也得出了人们对旅行时间的损失厌恶程度要高于对票价的损失厌恶程度的经验规则。三,根据参照点依赖的旅行时间价值模型推导出的运输系统或通道的旅行时间价值测算模型具有较强的操作性,这对改进单一节约视角来测算旅行时间价值模型的缺陷,重新认识运输系统评估体系以及完善交通规划模型构建等多方面具有重要的启示。除此之外,参照点依赖的分析思路可能应用的领域还包括旅行时间的弹性分析、“错时上下班”政策解释和旅行时间服务满意度探讨等。
[Abstract]:Abstract: in transportation economics, the importance of studying the value of travel time is obvious. As early as 1960s, scholars have carried out a large number of theoretical and empirical studies on the value of travel time. The general study holds that the value of travel time is not easy to be affected by the experience of the decision maker, the expectation or endowment, and the saving of its value. It is the most direct form of improving the efficiency of the use of time resources, and it is also the basic driving force to promote the continuous development of the transportation industry. However, the irreversibility and non tradability of the travel time itself will make the evaluation of its value subjectivism to a great extent, which can be the loss and benefit of travel time for most travellers. The value given is asymmetrical: the value of the lost travel time is higher than the income. With the rapid development of the economy and the continuous maturity of transportation technology, the concept of the value of travel time has been changed greatly: from the perspective of simple economy to more and more emphasis on punctual reliability, including on time and reliability. From this turn of view, the value of travel time is more important to people than the delay of travel time. At the same time, the change of the concept of evaluation means that the development of transportation industry is facing an important phase change. Therefore, the travel time price from the angle of loss aversion Reexamination and measurement of value also have important theoretical and practical significance.
In many studies using utility theory to study the value of travel time, because few scholars examine the value of travel time from the perspective of loss aversion, it leads to the existence of a defect in traditional analysis methods - neglecting the important role of reference points. Therefore, in this sense, the study of the value of the traditional travel time should be studied in this sense. Based on this, the author, based on the assumption of transportation demand as a derivative demand, modifies the traditional travel time value research paradigm from the point of view of travel choice. The main work and research views are as follows: first, from the perspective of travel choice, it will be innovative. The reference point is introduced into the non difference curve analysis of travel time transportation cost substitution relationship and the distinction between "income" and "loss" according to the position of reference point, and then a dual view of travel time value analysis framework is set up to explain the value of travel time value. Path dependence and loss aversion effect. From the perspective of deepening research, the framework helps to further elaborate the reliability and heterogeneity of travel time value, and draws a greater inference on the impact of travel time value on travel choice. Two, the use of reference point dependence analysis framework to improve the value of traditional travel time value. Research model helps to verify the widespread loss aversion effect of travel time value. At the same time, the model also draws the experience rule that people's loss aversion to travel time is higher than the loss aversion to ticket price. Three, travel system or channel travel derived from the travel time value model of reference point dependent travel time. The time value calculation model has strong operability, which has important inspiration for improving the single saving perspective to measure the defect of travel time value model, re understanding the evaluation system of transportation system and perfecting the construction of traffic planning model.
In addition, the possible applications of the reference point dependence analysis also include the elastic analysis of travel time, the policy interpretation of the wrong time and the discussion of the satisfaction of travel time services, and so on.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F592

【参考文献】