突发事件下谣言传播的机制与防控策略研究
发布时间：2019-05-19 23:58
【摘要】：由于自然条件、经济发展水平、人口等因素,我国是一个自然灾害、事故灾难等突发事件多发的国家。突发事件所带来的灾害种类繁多,发生频率较高,造成的损失非常大。回顾人类历史上发生的重大突发事件,几乎每一次都会伴随着大量的谣言传播。谣言的传播对于社会的危害极大,不仅影响人们的日常生活,还会对正常的社会秩序与政治稳定带来极大的影响,甚至演变成社会公众事件。突发事件后,政府相关部门迅速启动应急预案,采取相应的应急措施来控制事态发展,组织开展应急救援和处置工作以减少损失。谣言的传播将给应急处置、应急物流的组织产生很大的影响。对谣言传播过程的研究有助于对谣言传播的控制。研究突发事件后谣言的传播机理、蔓延和扩散途径、影响因素,以及如何掌握控制和引导舆情动态演化等成为当前学术界的研究热点。这些理论成果对政府应急管理部门掌握谣言传播的途径和演变规律,做好突发事件的社会舆情预警,提高政府对谣言的干预和控制能力,具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。论文以突发事件后的谣言为研究主体,应用系统动力学的理论和方法,考虑媒体影响、时滞、政府控制能力限制、反应扩散等因素,建立更加符合实际的几类时滞谣言传播模型,并研究其动力学特征,具体如下:(1)考虑媒体影响的时滞SIR谣言传播模型建立及其动力学特征分析考虑从传播者转化为知谣不传谣者所需要的时间,引入政府控制延迟,提出了突发事件后考虑媒体影响的时滞SIR谣言传播模型,并研究了其动力学特征。通过把时滞作为分岔参数,探讨了边界平衡点和正平衡点的局部稳定性,得到了 Hopf分岔的条件。然后,采用规范形式方法和中心流形定理,提出了确定Hopf分岔方向和分岔周期解的稳定性公式。最后,还给出了一些数值模拟来说明我们的理论结果。通过理论分析与数值仿真,发现政府控制延迟对系统的稳定性有着很大的影响。政府控制延迟能够引起平衡点失稳,发生Hopf分支现象并导致周期振动出现。当时滞穿过某个临界值时,系统产生周期解。此外,当系统稳定时,随着时滞的增大,系统收敛的速度越来越慢。通过对媒体影响和政府控制延迟的调节,可以达到控制谣言传播的目的。(2 )带有饱和控制函数的时滞谣言传播模型建立及其动力学特征分析考虑谣言传播治理中政府控制资源及能力水平的有限性,引入饱和控制函数,建立带有饱和控制函数的时滞谣言传播模型并分析其动力学特征。以时滞为分岔参数,研究了系统的稳定和Hopf分岔问题。探讨了边界平衡点和正平衡点的局部稳定性,得到了 Hopf分岔的条件。采用规范形式方法和中心流形定理,提出了确定Hopf分岔方向和分岔周期解的稳定性公式。给出了一些数值模拟来说明我们的理论结果。仿真结果表明:当感染者的数量很小和政府控制的资源足够,那么谣言控制的结果是令人满意的,否则,群体将有发生社会公共事件的风险。政府的控制行为可以改变谣言达到平衡时的大小,这意味着如果发生谣言传播引起的社会动荡问题,政府控制有利于保护社会稳定;适当的政府控制还可使系统的周期振荡行为变为稳定,因而能改善社会系统的平衡;当政府加大控制时,可能会导致谣言的灭绝。对谣言传播者进行及时的影响和干预,提高政府控制水平和控制能力,减少传播系数都是控制谣言的有效方法。(3)时滞反应扩散谣言传播模型建立及其动力学特征分析将时滞和反应扩散项同时引入谣言传播研究,考虑空间扩散的因素、时滞效应和政府控制问题,建立了具有政府控制项的时滞反应扩散谣言传播模型并分析其动力学特征。论文应用偏微分方程理论讨论了模型的稳定性,以时滞为分岔参数研究了系统的Hopf分支问。理论分析与数值仿真表明时滞可使系统的稳定性发生改变,当时滞穿过某个临界值时,Hopf分支发生。在一定的条件下,正平衡点可达到全局渐近稳定。然后,利用数值仿真讨论了时滞、扩散以及政府控制对系统动力的影响。对于时间模型,发现存在关于时滞的阈值:当时滞小于该阈值,则正平衡点是渐近稳定的;当时滞超过该阈值,则正平衡点是不稳定,并且会出现小振幅周期解。对于时空模型,通过数学分析,发现结点移动有效降低了谣言传播的振荡程度,意味着反应扩散能够降低产生社会动荡的可能性,说明我们引进的扩散有着重要的作用。政府调控力度对系统的稳定性有着重大影响,政府如果加大调控的力度,则谣言传播者的数量就大幅减少,同时易感者与理性人群的数量大幅增加。政府调控力度的加大,也使得系统的稳定域扩大。论文挖掘谣言传播的内在机制,研究重要参数(如时滞、政府控制、反应扩散)对模型动力学行为的影响及控制策略,进一步丰富现有谣言传播理论成果,为有效控制和引导社会公众行为提供理论、方法和决策支持。
[Abstract]:As a result of the natural conditions, economic development level, population and other factors, our country is a country with many accidents such as natural disasters and accident disasters. There are a wide variety of disasters caused by the incident, and the frequency of occurrence is high, and the resulting loss is very large. A review of the major unexpected events in the history of human history, almost every time, is accompanied by a large number of rumors. The spread of the rumor has great harm to the society, not only affects people's daily life, but also has great influence on the normal social order and political stability, and even into the public events. After the emergency, the relevant departments of the government quickly start the emergency plan, take corresponding emergency measures to control the development, and organize the emergency rescue and disposal work to reduce the loss. The spread of the rumors will have a great impact on the emergency disposal and the organization of the emergency logistics. The study of the spread of the rumor has helped to control the spread of the rumor. The study of the transmission mechanism, the spread and the diffusion way, the influence factors and how to control and guide the dynamic evolution of public opinion become the research focus of the current academic circles. These theoretical achievements have very important theoretical and practical significance to the government's emergency management department to master the way and the evolution law of the rumor transmission, to do well the social public opinion warning of the emergency, to improve the government's intervention and control ability to the rumor. Based on the rumour of the incident, the paper applies the theory and method of system dynamics, and takes into account the factors such as the influence of the media, the time-delay, the restriction of the control ability of the government, the diffusion of the reaction, etc., and sets up a more realistic type of time-delay rumor propagation model, and studies the dynamic characteristics. (1) taking into account the time-delay SIR rumor propagation model established by the media and the dynamic characteristic analysis, taking into account the time required by the propagation of the transmission to the ballad without the ballad, and introducing the government control delay, In this paper, the propagation model of time-delay SIR (SIR), which takes into account the influence of the media, is put forward, and its dynamic characteristics are also studied. By using the time-delay as the bifurcation parameter, the local stability of the boundary and the positive equilibrium point is discussed, and the conditions of the Hopf bifurcation are obtained. Then, the stability formula for determining the bifurcation direction and the bifurcation periodic solution of the Hopf is presented by means of the standard form method and the central manifold theorem. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to illustrate our theoretical results. Through theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, it is found that the control delay of the government has a great influence on the stability of the system. The control delay of the government can cause the equilibrium point to be unstable, and the Hopf bifurcation phenomenon and the periodic vibration occur. The system generates a periodic solution when it passes through a critical value. In addition, when the system is stable, the speed of the system converges more and more slowly with the increase of time-delay. By adjusting the influence of the media and the delay of the government's control, the purpose of controlling the transmission of the rumor can be reached. (2) The establishment of a delay rumor propagation model with a saturation control function and the dynamic characteristic analysis take into account the limitation of the government's control resources and the ability level in the transmission of the rumor, and introduces the saturation control function. A time-delay rumor propagation model with a saturation control function is established and its dynamic characteristics are analyzed. The stability of the system and the bifurcation of the Hopf bifurcation are studied with time-delay as the bifurcation parameter. The local stability of the boundary and positive equilibrium points is discussed, and the conditions of the Hopf bifurcation are obtained. The stability formula for determining the bifurcation direction and the bifurcation periodic solution of the Hopf is presented by means of the standard form method and the central manifold theorem. Some numerical simulations are given to illustrate our theoretical results. The simulation results show that when the number of the infected persons is small and the resources of the government control are sufficient, the result of the rumor control is satisfactory, otherwise, the group will have the risk of social public events. The government's control can change the size of the rumor, which means that if there is a social unrest that is caused by the spread of the rumor, the government's control is favorable to the protection of social stability; the proper government control can also make the periodic oscillation behavior of the system stable, So it can improve the balance of the social system; when the government increases its control, it may lead to the extermination of the rumour. The effective way to control the rumor is to improve the government's control level and control ability, and to reduce the transmission coefficient. (3) The establishment of the propagation model of the diffusion of the delayed reaction diffusion and the dynamic characteristics of the diffusion are introduced, and the time-delay and the reaction-diffusion term are simultaneously introduced into the rumor propagation research, and the factors, the time-delay effect and the government control problem of the spatial diffusion are considered. In this paper, a time-delay reaction spread rumor propagation model with government control terms is established and its dynamic characteristics are analyzed. In this paper, the stability of the model is discussed with the theory of partial differential equation, and the Hopf branch of the system is studied with time-delay as the bifurcation parameter. The theoretical analysis and numerical simulation show that the time delay can change the stability of the system, when the hysteresis passes through a certain critical value, the Hopf branch takes place. Under certain conditions, the positive equilibrium point can achieve global asymptotic stability. Then, the effect of time-delay, diffusion and the government's control on the power of the system is discussed by numerical simulation. For a time model, it is found that there is a threshold for time delay: when the hysteresis is less than the threshold, the positive equilibrium point is asymptotically stable; when the hysteresis exceeds the threshold, the positive equilibrium point is unstable and a small amplitude periodic solution is present. For the space-time model, through the mathematical analysis, it is found that the movement of the node effectively reduces the degree of oscillation of the rumor propagation, which means that the reaction diffusion can reduce the possibility of generating social unrest, and it is important to explain the diffusion of the introduced diffusion. The government's control efforts have a great impact on the stability of the system, and if the government is stepping up its regulation, the number of the rumors spreading is greatly reduced, and the number of the easyand the rational population is greatly increased. The increase of the government's control has also led to the expansion of the stability of the system. In this paper, the internal mechanism of the propagation of the rumors, the influence of the important parameters (such as time-delay, the government control, the reaction spread) on the model's dynamic behavior and the control strategy are studied. Methods and decision support.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：D63;G206
本文编号：2481181
[Abstract]:As a result of the natural conditions, economic development level, population and other factors, our country is a country with many accidents such as natural disasters and accident disasters. There are a wide variety of disasters caused by the incident, and the frequency of occurrence is high, and the resulting loss is very large. A review of the major unexpected events in the history of human history, almost every time, is accompanied by a large number of rumors. The spread of the rumor has great harm to the society, not only affects people's daily life, but also has great influence on the normal social order and political stability, and even into the public events. After the emergency, the relevant departments of the government quickly start the emergency plan, take corresponding emergency measures to control the development, and organize the emergency rescue and disposal work to reduce the loss. The spread of the rumors will have a great impact on the emergency disposal and the organization of the emergency logistics. The study of the spread of the rumor has helped to control the spread of the rumor. The study of the transmission mechanism, the spread and the diffusion way, the influence factors and how to control and guide the dynamic evolution of public opinion become the research focus of the current academic circles. These theoretical achievements have very important theoretical and practical significance to the government's emergency management department to master the way and the evolution law of the rumor transmission, to do well the social public opinion warning of the emergency, to improve the government's intervention and control ability to the rumor. Based on the rumour of the incident, the paper applies the theory and method of system dynamics, and takes into account the factors such as the influence of the media, the time-delay, the restriction of the control ability of the government, the diffusion of the reaction, etc., and sets up a more realistic type of time-delay rumor propagation model, and studies the dynamic characteristics. (1) taking into account the time-delay SIR rumor propagation model established by the media and the dynamic characteristic analysis, taking into account the time required by the propagation of the transmission to the ballad without the ballad, and introducing the government control delay, In this paper, the propagation model of time-delay SIR (SIR), which takes into account the influence of the media, is put forward, and its dynamic characteristics are also studied. By using the time-delay as the bifurcation parameter, the local stability of the boundary and the positive equilibrium point is discussed, and the conditions of the Hopf bifurcation are obtained. Then, the stability formula for determining the bifurcation direction and the bifurcation periodic solution of the Hopf is presented by means of the standard form method and the central manifold theorem. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to illustrate our theoretical results. Through theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, it is found that the control delay of the government has a great influence on the stability of the system. The control delay of the government can cause the equilibrium point to be unstable, and the Hopf bifurcation phenomenon and the periodic vibration occur. The system generates a periodic solution when it passes through a critical value. In addition, when the system is stable, the speed of the system converges more and more slowly with the increase of time-delay. By adjusting the influence of the media and the delay of the government's control, the purpose of controlling the transmission of the rumor can be reached. (2) The establishment of a delay rumor propagation model with a saturation control function and the dynamic characteristic analysis take into account the limitation of the government's control resources and the ability level in the transmission of the rumor, and introduces the saturation control function. A time-delay rumor propagation model with a saturation control function is established and its dynamic characteristics are analyzed. The stability of the system and the bifurcation of the Hopf bifurcation are studied with time-delay as the bifurcation parameter. The local stability of the boundary and positive equilibrium points is discussed, and the conditions of the Hopf bifurcation are obtained. The stability formula for determining the bifurcation direction and the bifurcation periodic solution of the Hopf is presented by means of the standard form method and the central manifold theorem. Some numerical simulations are given to illustrate our theoretical results. The simulation results show that when the number of the infected persons is small and the resources of the government control are sufficient, the result of the rumor control is satisfactory, otherwise, the group will have the risk of social public events. The government's control can change the size of the rumor, which means that if there is a social unrest that is caused by the spread of the rumor, the government's control is favorable to the protection of social stability; the proper government control can also make the periodic oscillation behavior of the system stable, So it can improve the balance of the social system; when the government increases its control, it may lead to the extermination of the rumour. The effective way to control the rumor is to improve the government's control level and control ability, and to reduce the transmission coefficient. (3) The establishment of the propagation model of the diffusion of the delayed reaction diffusion and the dynamic characteristics of the diffusion are introduced, and the time-delay and the reaction-diffusion term are simultaneously introduced into the rumor propagation research, and the factors, the time-delay effect and the government control problem of the spatial diffusion are considered. In this paper, a time-delay reaction spread rumor propagation model with government control terms is established and its dynamic characteristics are analyzed. In this paper, the stability of the model is discussed with the theory of partial differential equation, and the Hopf branch of the system is studied with time-delay as the bifurcation parameter. The theoretical analysis and numerical simulation show that the time delay can change the stability of the system, when the hysteresis passes through a certain critical value, the Hopf branch takes place. Under certain conditions, the positive equilibrium point can achieve global asymptotic stability. Then, the effect of time-delay, diffusion and the government's control on the power of the system is discussed by numerical simulation. For a time model, it is found that there is a threshold for time delay: when the hysteresis is less than the threshold, the positive equilibrium point is asymptotically stable; when the hysteresis exceeds the threshold, the positive equilibrium point is unstable and a small amplitude periodic solution is present. For the space-time model, through the mathematical analysis, it is found that the movement of the node effectively reduces the degree of oscillation of the rumor propagation, which means that the reaction diffusion can reduce the possibility of generating social unrest, and it is important to explain the diffusion of the introduced diffusion. The government's control efforts have a great impact on the stability of the system, and if the government is stepping up its regulation, the number of the rumors spreading is greatly reduced, and the number of the easyand the rational population is greatly increased. The increase of the government's control has also led to the expansion of the stability of the system. In this paper, the internal mechanism of the propagation of the rumors, the influence of the important parameters (such as time-delay, the government control, the reaction spread) on the model's dynamic behavior and the control strategy are studied. Methods and decision support.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：D63;G206
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