高校毕业生失业预警系统研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 21:22

本文关键词：高校毕业生失业预警系统研究　出处：《南京航空航天大学》2012年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国高校扩招以及高等教育实现大众化，大学生的数量日益增多，部分大学生不能及时就业的局面引起了社会各界的关注。高校毕业生失业问题关系到我国高等教育的健康发展，关系到我国经济的可持续性发展，也关系到社会的和谐与稳定。正确评估和判断高校毕业生的失业状况，科学预测高校毕业生的失业趋势，从而合理采取措施提升高校毕业生就业、预防失业风险扩大的系统研究亟待深入。因此，本研究所做的主要工作和相关结论及创新点是：结合系统科学以及经济预警的理论和分析方法，建立了高校毕业生失业预警系统的分析框架，在此基础上，提出了高校毕业生失业预警系统的理论模型，即由数据信息系统、分析评价系统以及政策实施系统构成的，，包含警情、警源、警兆三大指标体系，集合了组织、信息监控以及政策决策等机制，从而实现对我国高校毕业生失业风险进行预测、预警，并采取措施预防警情发生的复杂系统。研究对系统理论模型的结构、功能和运行机制进行了具体的设计、分析和阐述，并对系统的警情判定、警源分析以及预测、预警等功能进行了实例的分析与探讨。与以往研究只是对高校毕业生失业预警系统进行局部或粗略的设想相比，本研究不仅完善了高校毕业生失业预警系统的理论探讨，也为实际应用奠定了基础。在回顾我国高等教育招生、就业政策发展历程的基础上，对当前我国高校毕业生就业状况进行了综合分析，从就业率指标的变化以及薪资、就业相关度、就业区域、行业和单位属性以及择业成本、周期等方面的就业状况进行了全面的阐述，从而证实了我国当前高校毕业生就业过程中确实存在一定警情。与此同时，研究发现，我国当前缺乏完善的高校毕业生失业评价指标体系，现有的指标界定不规范、统计方式方法不完善，使得数据资料缺乏统一标准，从而制约了对高校毕业生失业状况进行科学有效的评估。在此基础上，研究对高校毕业生失业概念进行了梳理和重新界定，提出了构建数量与质量指标相结合的警情指标体系，不仅丰富了高校毕业生失业预警系统研究的内容，也推动了我国高校毕业生就业评估工作的进一步深化。基于劳动经济学、人力资本以及高等教育理论中的失业原理，运用系统分析方法对高校毕业生就业系统中的各主体和相互关系进行分析阐述，从而明确了我国高校毕业生宏观结构性失业和微观选择性失业主要是受到经济、社会就业、高等教育以及个人观念等因素的影响。在此基础上，进一步将宏观影响因素转化为具体的量化指标，建立了高校毕业生失业预警系统的警源监控指标体系，为进一步的预警分析奠定了基础。研究通过指标的时差分析进一步明晰了各因素对高校毕业生失业的影响机理及影响程度，提出我国人口总量巨大的国情导致了我国就业问题将长期存在；而产业结构升级缓慢及其结构的不合理是我国当前对高校毕业生就业吸纳能力较差的根本原因；在经济发展增速减缓的情况下，高等教育规模扩张幅度不减而人才培养质量未能有效提升是我国高校毕业生失业问题扩大化的关键诱导原因。研究借助系统分析方法，将定性分析与定量分析相结合，为我国高校毕业生失业的类型、成因的研究提供了科学的依据，拓展了高校毕业生失业问题研究视角。在对高校毕业生失业预警系统的预测功能实现的探讨过程中，侧重于多种定量方法的探索与比较，对各种方法的适用性、差异原因进行了分析判断。研究结果显示，传统的时间序列计量模型ARIMA模型、适用于少数据、贫信息的灰色系统模型以及对于数据要求较低、学习功能较强的神经网络模型对于高校毕业生失业率的预测均有一定的可行性，但在预测精度上，传统的计量模型对于数据的要求较高，因而精度较差；灰色系统模型对特定时点的预测精度较高，但过程拟合精度较差，具有一定局限性；神经网络模型则拟合优度较高，时点精度略低于灰色系统，是对我国当前高校毕业生失业趋势进行预测的综合效果较优的方法选择。这一结论对我国高校毕业生失业问题出现时间短、波动大、数据资料不完善的情况下对其进行预测提供了新的思路和比较客观的检验结果。对高校毕业生失业预警系统的警报发布探讨中，根据系统构成要素的两种耦合方式——警兆预警和警情预警分别进行了讨论。通过对警源监控指标进行进一步的回归分析，筛选确定了高校毕业生失业预警的警兆指标体系，进而采用扩散指数法对预警区间和预警线进行了判定。而鉴于我国当前高校毕业生失业警情指标体系的数据基础还不完善，因此警情预警路径主要是基于现行的单一的失业率警情指标的预测结果进行了预警判定的探讨。警情预警和警兆预警两种预警方式的结果均显示我国当前高校毕业生失业的预警区域在轻警区，但预警指数长期处于较高位置，接近由轻警区向中警区转变的临界区域，失业风险不容忽视。而结合对于我国高校毕业生失业状况的质量分析，基于社会用人单位在招收大学生以及给付薪酬观念上的偏见以及大学生及其家庭就业观念的偏差等都会进一步造成大学生失业问题的突显，同时由于我国相应的社会保障制度没有配套，大学生失业很可能将酿成严重的社会问题。以往的高校毕业生失业预警研究多数是基于定性分析进行判断，而本研究基于高校毕业生失业预警系统的整体分析，将警情预警和警兆预警判定方法与警源分析相结合，运用多元回归扩散指数、德尔菲法等多种方法对我国高校毕业生失业的趋势进行了分析判断，为正确认识我国高校毕业生失业状况及发展趋势提供了比较有说服力的依据。最后，研究根据当前的预警判断及分析的结果，为提升高校毕业生就业，防范失业警情的恶化，从推动需求、改善供给和促进供需匹配等角度提出了调整产业经济政策，围绕创造就业改变经济增长方式；拓展就业途径、完善就业制度保障；适度规划高等教育发展规模、优化高等教育结构以及健全高校毕业生就业市场、提升就业服务等多项措施。
[Abstract]:With the expansion of China's colleges and universities and higher education popularization, the number of college students is increasing, some students can not be timely employment situation has aroused the concern of the community. The university graduate unemployment problem related to the healthy development of higher education in China, related to the sustainable development of China's economy, but also related to social harmony and stability the correct evaluation and judgment. Unemployment of college graduates, college graduates unemployment trend forecast, thus reasonable to take measures to improve the employment of college graduates, the unemployment risk prevention system of expanding further. Therefore, the main work done in this study and the relevant conclusions and innovations are:
Combining with the system science and economic early-warning theory and analysis method, establish the analysis frame of the early warning system of unemployment of college graduates, on this basis, puts forward the theoretical model of college graduates unemployment early warning system, namely the data information system, structure analysis and evaluation system and policy implementation system, including alarm, alarm source, alarm three the index system of collection, organization, information monitoring and policy decision-making mechanism, so as to realize the prediction of the risk of unemployment of college graduates in China early warning, complex system and take measures to prevent the occurrence of an alarm. The research on the theoretical model of the system structure, function and operation mechanism of the specific design, analysis and exposition. And to judge the system of police intelligence, police source analysis and forecasting, early warning function and discusses the analysis of examples. And previous studies only for college graduates into the early warning system of unemployment Compared with local or rough assumptions, this study not only perfects the theoretical discussion of unemployment early warning system for college graduates, but also lays a foundation for practical application.
In the review of higher education in China, based on the development of employment policy, on the current employment situation of college graduates in China are analyzed, from the change of employment index and salary, employment, employment area, industry and employment unit property and cost, cycle and other aspects of the employment situation are described in detail., which confirmed that certain alarm does exist in China's current employment of college graduates in the process. At the same time, the study found that China's current lack of perfect evaluation index system of college graduates unemployment, the existing fixed boundary refers to is not standardized, statistical methods is not perfect, the data of the lack of uniform standards, thus restricting the unemployed graduates of colleges and universities the status of scientific and effective evaluation. On this basis, the research carried out and the concept of the unemployment of college graduates to redefine a build number The index system combined with quality indicators not only enriches the contents of the early warning system of college graduates' unemployment, but also promotes the further deepening of the Employment Evaluation of Chinese college graduates.
Based on the principle of labor economics, unemployment and higher education human capital theory, using the method of system analysis on the employment of college graduates in the system and the main relationship was analyzed, in order to clear the structural unemployment of college graduates in China macro and micro selective unemployment is mainly affected by the economic, social employment, higher education and personal effects concepts and other factors. On this basis, further macro factors into specific quantitative indicators, warning source monitoring index system established early warning system of unemployment of college graduates, laid the foundation for further research. Through the analysis of early warning indicators of the time difference analysis to further clarify the influence mechanism and degree of influence of various factors on the unemployment of college graduates the proposed Chinese population great conditions led to the employment problem in China will exist for a long time; industrial structure Slow and upgrade structure unreasonable is the fundamental cause of the current college graduates employment capacity poor in China; in the economic growth slowed down, the scale of higher education expansion and does not reduce the quality of personnel training to improve college graduates in China is the key to expand unemployment induced reasons. With the help of the system analysis research the method of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, for the type of college graduates unemployment in China, provides a scientific basis for the cause of the expansion of the college graduates unemployment problem research perspective.
In the process of prediction of college graduates unemployment early warning system implementation, explore and focus on a variety of quantitative methods, the applicability of various methods, the reason of the difference is analyzed and evaluated. The results showed that the time series econometric model ARIMA model is applicable to the traditional, less data, poor information model of grey system and the data are low, the learning function of neural network model for strong unemployment of college graduates have a certain prediction feasibility, but in the prediction accuracy, the traditional measurement model for high data requirements, have poor precision, high prediction accuracy; grey system models to the specific point in time, but the process of fitting precision that has certain limitations; neural network model fitting degree is higher, the point precision is slightly lower than that of the grey system, the current college graduates unemployment trend This method can provide a new way of thinking and objective results for predicting the unemployment of college graduates in China in the short time, large fluctuation and incomplete data.
The unemployment of college graduates early warning system to alert, according to the two kinds of coupling system elements -- alarm warning and alarm warning are discussed respectively. Through further regression of warning source monitoring index analysis, selected college graduates unemployment early warning alarm index system, then uses the method of diffusion index the warning interval and the warning line is determined. And in view of the data base of our current college graduates unemployment warning index system is not perfect, so the alarm warning path is mainly a result of current prediction of single unemployment warning index is discussed in this paper. The determination of early warning early warning alarm and alarm warning two the results showed that for early warning of China's current unemployment of college graduates in the region early warning light warning, but warning index term is in high position, close to the light by the police To the critical area in District transformation, unemployment risk can not be ignored. And combined with the analysis of quality for the unemployment of college graduates in China, employers in the society will cause further problems in recruiting college students and college students' unemployment benefit compensation concept bias and the employment concept of college students and their families are highlighted based on deviation at the same time, because of our country the corresponding social security system does not support, the unemployment of college students is likely to lead to serious social problems. The majority of college graduates unemployment early warning research in the past is the qualitative analysis and judgment based on this research, the overall college graduates unemployment early warning system based on the analysis, the alarm and warning warning warning decision analysis method and warning source combination by using the multivariate regression diffusion index, the trend of Delphy Fa and other methods of unemployment of college graduates in China are analyzed to Off, for a correct understanding of the unemployment situation and development trend of college graduates in China provides a more convincing basis. Finally, according to the current research on early warning judgment and analysis of the results, in order to promote the employment of college graduates, to prevent deterioration of unemployment alarm, from promoting the improvement of supply and demand, promote the supply and demand matching is put forward the adjustment of industrial policy, focus on job creation and change the pattern of economic growth; to expand employment, improve the employment security system; appropriate planning of development scale of higher education, graduate employment market, optimize the structure of higher education and improve college graduation, improve the employment service measures.

【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：G647.38

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