产业安全视角下我国小麦进口贸易波动及安全维护机制研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 07:17

本文关键词：产业安全视角下我国小麦进口贸易波动及安全维护机制研究　出处：《中国海洋大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国拥有着全球最大的小麦消费群体,在小麦产品的国际贸易中占有十分重要的地位。同时,我国也是世界小麦的主要生产国,拥有全球最大的小麦生产规模。近年来,受国际宏观经济环境和国内贸易政策等因素的影响,我国小麦进口贸易出现大幅波动现象,严重威胁到我国国内小麦产业的健康发展。我国小麦进口贸易的波动规律、波动原因以及如何熨平波动等问题亟待解决。从产业安全的视角出发,以1980年至2013年我国小麦进口贸易为研究对象,建立我国小麦贸易波动影响因素的指标体系,利用因子分析模型对我国小麦进口贸易波动的影响因素进行实证分析。1980年至1995年影响我国小麦进口贸易的主导因素是物价水平因素和宏观经济政策因素。1996年至2006年影响我国小麦进口贸易的主导因素是农业发展因素。2007年至2013年影响我国小麦进口贸易波动的主导因素是宏观经济政策因素。在小麦进口贸易波动因子分析的基础上,建立小麦进口贸易波动关联性分析指标体系,运用灰色关联模型对1980年至2013年我国小麦进口贸易量与其影响因子之间的关联性进行实证分析。1980年至1995年我国小麦进口贸易波动与城市居民消费价格指数(上年=100)和居民消费价格指数(上年=100)的综合关联度最高,分别为0.7497和0.7187。1996年至2006年我国小麦进口贸易波动与农业发展因素(国内小麦产量和农业总产值)的综合灰色关联度最高,分别为0.7113和0.6385。2007年至2013年我国小麦进口贸易波动与人民币对美元汇率(美元=100)和关税之间的综合灰色关联度最高,分别达到0.6481和0.5630。基于可拓物元模型,建立我国小麦进口贸易波动安全评价指标体系,对1980年至2013年我国小麦进口贸易波动安全等级进行评价。1980年至1996年我国小麦进口贸易安全等级在负向不安全和安全状态间波动,1997年至2013年我国小麦进口贸易安全等级在正向不安全和负向不安全之间波动,和前一时期相比,安全等级波动更加不稳定。本文建立了小麦进口贸易波动安全维护机制。该机制包括贸易波动数据子系统、贸易波动因子分析子系统、贸易波动灰色关联分析子系统、贸易波动安全评价子系统和贸易波动维护对策子系统,各子系统之间一共通过7条路径产生联系。这7条路径将我国小麦贸易波动安全维护机制分为基础模块、功能模块和结果反馈模块。该机制能够充分调动社会资源和人的主观能动性,根据小麦进口贸易现状有针对的提出贸易波动熨平对策。
[Abstract]:China has the largest group of wheat consumers in the world and occupies a very important position in the international trade of wheat products. At the same time, China is also the main producer of wheat in the world. In recent years, due to the influence of international macroeconomic environment and domestic trade policy, China's wheat import trade has been fluctuating greatly. It is a serious threat to the healthy development of China's wheat industry. The fluctuation law of China's wheat import trade, the causes of fluctuation and how to smooth the fluctuation are urgently needed to be solved from the perspective of industrial safety. Taking the wheat import trade of China from 1980 to 2013 as the research object, the index system of the influencing factors of wheat trade fluctuation in China was established. The factors influencing the fluctuation of wheat import trade in China were analyzed by factor analysis model. From 1980 to 1995, the main factors affecting wheat import trade in China were price level factors and macroeconomic policies. From 1996 to 2006, the main factor affecting China's wheat import trade was the agricultural development factor. From 2007 to 2007, the dominant factor affecting the fluctuation of China's wheat import trade was the macro-economic analysis. Economic policy factors. Based on the analysis of fluctuation factors of wheat import trade. To establish the index system of fluctuation correlation analysis of wheat import trade. An empirical analysis of the correlation between the import volume of wheat and its influencing factors in China from 1980 to 2013 was carried out by using the grey relational model. The fluctuation of China's wheat import trade from 1980 to 1980. Consumer Price Indices for Urban residents (. The comprehensive correlation between the last year and the consumer price index (last year was 100) was the highest. From 0. 7497 and 0. 7187. 1996 to 2006, respectively, the fluctuation of wheat import trade and agricultural development factors (domestic wheat yield and total agricultural output) were the highest. From 0.7113 and 0.6385. 2007 to 2013, respectively, the fluctuation of China's wheat import trade and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar (US $100). There is the highest degree of comprehensive grey correlation with tariffs. On the basis of extension matter-element model, a security evaluation index system for fluctuation of wheat import trade in China is established. The fluctuation security level of wheat import trade in China from 1980 to 2013 was evaluated. The security level of wheat import trade in China fluctuated between negative insecurity and safety state from 1980 to 1980. From 1997 to 2013, the security level of China's wheat import trade fluctuated between positive insecurity and negative insecurity, compared with the previous period. The security level fluctuation is more unstable. In this paper, the security maintenance mechanism of wheat import trade fluctuation is established. The mechanism includes trade fluctuation data subsystem and trade fluctuation factor analysis subsystem. Trade fluctuation gray correlation analysis subsystem, trade volatility security evaluation subsystem and trade fluctuation maintenance strategy subsystem. These seven paths divide the security maintenance mechanism of China's wheat trade fluctuation into basic modules. Function module and result feedback module. This mechanism can fully mobilize social resources and human subjective initiative, according to the current situation of wheat import trade to put forward trade fluctuation ironing countermeasures.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.11;F752.61

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