专业化、多样化与产业结构减贫效应的动态异质表现研究

发布时间：2018-03-12 10:26

本文选题：专业化　切入点：相关多样化　出处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：新一轮扶贫攻坚阶段,贫困地区实现可持续减贫的关键不在于现有经济增长模式下如何提高转移支付的精度和效率,而在于真正改变贫困地区的经济发展理念,从盯住经济总量增长转向用减贫目标统领经济发展。产业结构与贫困减缓的关系影响着贫困地区产业发展的政策制定,但既往研究对何种产业结构更有助于贫困减缓没有形成共识。本文基于产业专业化和多样化视角,分析了专业化、多样化影响贫困减缓的理论机制,并利用2004—2014年中国省级面板数据,对专业化、相关多样化、不相关多样化与FGT贫困指数的关系进行了门限回归和稳健性检验。检验结果确认了产业结构减贫效应的动态异质表现:专业化的减贫效应在产品生命周期的初始和发展阶段趋于增强,并且经济密度更小、距离技术前沿更远的地区,专业化的减贫效果更显著;多样化的减贫绩效低于专业化,且相关多样化的减贫效应高于不相关多样化。细分产业来看,第三产业相关多样化比其他多样化结构更具减贫效果。贫困地区在减贫的产业结构选择上,首要目标是改善专业化程度,其次是在多样化的既定前提下,谋求相关多样化,尤其是第三产业的相关多样化。专业化和相关多样化对不同贫困群体的影响也存在差别,既往产业结构更有利于贫困线附近群体的贫困减缓,而对深度贫困群体的溢出不足。因此,在塑造合宜减贫产业结构,改善低技能劳动力需求的同时,还应辅以改善深度贫困人口劳动力供给的政策,改善其自我发展能力和经济机会,从而增强从益贫产业结构中获益的能力。
[Abstract]:In the new round of poverty alleviation, the key to achieving sustainable poverty reduction in poor areas lies not in how to improve the accuracy and efficiency of transfer payments under the existing economic growth model, but in truly changing the concept of economic development in poor areas. The relationship between industrial structure and poverty alleviation affects the policy making of industrial development in poor areas. However, there is no consensus on which industrial structure contributes to poverty alleviation. Based on the perspective of industrial specialization and diversification, this paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism that specialization and diversification influence poverty alleviation. And using the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2014 in China, for specialization and related diversification, The relationship between irrelevant diversification and FGT poverty index is tested by threshold regression and robustness test. The test results confirm the dynamic heterogeneity of the poverty reduction effect of industrial structure: the specialized poverty reduction effect is at the beginning of the product life cycle. And the development phase tends to increase, Moreover, where the economic density is smaller and the technological frontier is farther away, the effect of specialization on poverty reduction is more significant; the poverty reduction performance of diversification is lower than that of specialization, and the poverty reduction effect of related diversification is higher than that of unrelated diversification. Relative diversification of tertiary industry is more effective in reducing poverty than other diversified structures. In the choice of industrial structure for poverty reduction, the first objective is to improve the degree of specialization, and the second is to seek relevant diversification in the context of diversification. In particular, the related diversification of the tertiary industry. There are also differences in the impact of specialization and related diversification on different poor groups. The previous industrial structure is more conducive to poverty alleviation of groups near the poverty line. Therefore, while shaping the appropriate poverty reduction industrial structure and improving the demand for low-skilled labor, it should be accompanied by policies to improve the labor supply of the deep poor. Improve their self-development capacity and economic opportunities, thereby enhancing their ability to benefit from the poor industrial structure.
【作者单位】：西南民族大学经济学院;西南民族大学西南民族研究院;
【基金】：国家社科基金青年项目“民族地区实现2020年减贫目标的距离估算与精准扶贫政策研究”(批准号:15CMZ029) 教育部人文社科青年项目“贫困乡城转移的内生机制与城乡一体化减贫政策研究”(批准号:14YJC790021) 西南民族大学应用经济学学位点项目“中国西部民族地区经济发展研究”(批准号:2014XWD-S020101)
【分类号】：F121.3;F126

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