居民消费视角下的重庆第三产业发展研究

发布时间：2018-03-13 21:14

本文选题：第三产业　切入点：城乡居民消费　出处：《重庆理工大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当今世界,第三产业发展水平已经成为衡量一个国家或地区经济发达程度的重要标志。改革开放以来,我国第三产业的发展取得了显著成效。但随着工业化和城镇化进程的加快,第三产业发展也面临许多问题。产业结构的调整和优化升级成为当前我国经济发展中的关键环节。而居民消费作为经济增长的强劲动力,对一个国家或地区经济发展方式转型作用十分明显。因此,只有促进居民消费与第三产业协调发展,才能更好地推动经济发展。直辖以来,重庆社会经济发展迅速,取得了举世瞩目的成就。第三产业在经济发展中的作用越来越突出,也直接促进了产业结构的优化。当前,各地经济的发展都要立足于我国经济转型升级的大背景。在国家实施西部大开发战略后,重庆的产业结构处于调整和优化升级的关键时期。因此,对这一时期影响重庆第三产业发展的因素进行研究具有重要的现实意义。在社会生产过程中,消费需求是影响产业结构最直接的因素。本文从居民消费需求的视角出发,深入探讨重庆城乡居民消费对第三产业发展的影响,从而为促进居民消费与第三产业协调发展提供对策建议。本文在对第三产业和居民消费相关理论进行综述的基础上,首先分析了重庆第三产业发展与城乡居民消费的概况。其次,对重庆居民消费对第三产业发展的影响进行了实证分析,从城乡居民消费的视角,找出了制约重庆第三产业发展的因素。在VAR模型中借助格兰杰因果检验、协整检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解,动态分析了重庆城乡居民消费对第三产业发展的影响。研究结果表明,城乡居民消费是第三产业发展的格兰杰原因,且两者之间存在协整关系,即两者存在长期的均衡关系;重庆产业结构升级仍有很大的空间,农村居民消费率与农村居民消费结构的变动对第三产业发展的影响不大,重庆第三产业的发展还需要宏观政策的引导。最后,得出研究结论,并提出扩大城乡居民消费,促进第三产业发展的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In today's world, the development level of the third industry has become an important symbol to measure a country or region economic development. Since the reform and opening up, the development of the third industry of our country has made remarkable achievements. But with the development of industrialization and urbanization, the development of the third industry also faces many problems. The adjustment and optimization of industrial structure upgrading has become the key link in the economic development of our country. But the consumer as a strong driving force for economic growth is very obvious, the mode of economic development of a country or region transformation. Therefore, only the promotion of residents consumption and coordinated development of the third industry, to promote economic development. Since the territory, Chongqing has achieved rapid socio-economic development. Remarkable achievements. And third industry in economic development in the increasingly prominent, also directly promote the optimization of industrial structure. At present, around the economy The development should be based on the background of China's economic transformation and upgrade. In the national western development strategy, the industrial structure of Chongqing is in a critical period of adjustment and upgrading. Therefore, research has important practical significance of factors influencing the development of the third industry of Chongqing in this period. In the process of social production. Consumer demand is the most direct factors influencing industrial structure. In this paper, from the consumer demand perspective, deeply influence the development of urban and rural residents' consumption in Chongqing on the third industry, so as to provide suggestions to promote consumption of residents and the third industry coordinated development. Based on the review of the third industry and consumer related theory, first analyzes the situation of Chongqing third industrial development and urban and rural residents consumption. Secondly, influence on the development of Chongqing residents' consumption of third industry empirically Analysis from the perspective of urban and rural residents' consumption, find out the factors restricting the development of third industry in Chongqing. With the help of Grainger causality test in VAR model, cointegration test, impulse response function and variance decomposition, dynamic analysis of the impact of the development of urban and rural residents' consumption in Chongqing on the third industry. The results show that the consumption of urban and rural residents is Grainger third the development of industry, there is a cointegration relationship and between the two, that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two; industrial structure upgrading of Chongqing still has a large space, not affecting the development rate of consumption of rural residents and rural residents' consumption structure changes on the development of the third industry, the third industry of Chongqing also needs the guidance of macroeconomic policy. Finally, the the conclusion of the study, and put forward to expand the consumption of urban and rural residents, promote the development of the third industry policy recommendations.

【学位授予单位】：重庆理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F719

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