甘肃省产业结构变动及其对碳排放的效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-30 15:09

本文选题：产业结构变动　切入点：碳排放效应　出处：《西北师范大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济发展与环境保护之间的矛盾愈演愈烈,发展低碳经济成为经济社会发展的必然趋势,对于正处于经济转型期的中国而言,产业结构优化升级被广泛认为是我国低碳发展的有效途径之一。在经济发展过程中,工业的碳排放所占比重最高,尤其是工业中的重工业碳排放更为突出。甘肃省是西部地区经济发展水平较落后的省份之一,产业结构以重工业为主,目前形成了以石油化工、有色冶金、机械电子等为主的工业体系。随着经济的不断发展,能源消耗量快速增大,对于生态和环境的压力越来越大。因此,研究产业结构变动对于碳排放的影响,对甘肃省实现低碳发展具有重要的现实意义。本文综合运用产业经济学、环境经济学、区域经济学等相关理论,以甘肃省1995-2014年间的面板数据为基础,系统分析产业结构变动情况以及各部门的能源消耗情况,科学构建甘肃省产业碳排放量测算体系,并进一步通过因素分解方法探究产业结构变动对于碳排放的影响,最后有针对性的提出产业结构优化建议。本文结论主要有:(1)甘肃省经济发展目前正处于工业化中期,产业结构属于“二、三、一”的工业化结构,第一产业所占生产总值比重整体处于下降趋势,第二产业比重波动下降,第三产业比重波动上升,尤其是2010年之后,甘肃省第二产业比重逐年下降,第三产业比重逐年上升,产业结构的演进趋势总体遵循“三二一”的良性发展方向。(2)甘肃省能源消费量呈现波动上升的趋势,消费结构仍是以煤炭、石油等化石能源为主,煤炭、原油所占能源消费比重高达80%以上,这表明甘肃省对于煤炭、石油等不可再生资源的需求压力大。(3)甘肃省能源消费碳排放量整体上处于增长的趋势,只有2009年的碳排放量在下降,但无法影响总体上的增长趋势。碳排放主要集中在工业,其所占碳排放总量比重一直在80%以上,属于生存型排放,随着经济的继续发展,碳排放量的增长仍将继续;另一方面,碳排放量虽然不断增加,却越来越集中在少数行业,便于技术改进,以达到节能减排的目的。(4)随着经济的不断发展,碳排放量不断增加,碳排放强度即单位GDP的碳排放量却呈现出明显的下降趋势,这表明甘肃省能源效率逐步提高,使得经济发展的高能耗、高排放的情况逐步改善。(5)1995-2014年间,经济发展是促进产业碳排放量增长的主要因素,能源强度因素是抑制碳排放量增长的主要因素,产业结构能够一定程度上抑制碳排放量的增长,能源结构对于碳排放量的增长贡献较小。工业比重的变化能够直接影响碳排放量的变化,工业比重上升将导致产业结构效应为正,促进碳排放量增长;工业比重下降将使得产业结构效应为负,抑制碳排放量的增长。
[Abstract]:With the growing contradiction between economic development and environmental protection, the development of low-carbon economy has become an inevitable trend of economic and social development. The optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is widely regarded as one of the effective ways of low-carbon development in China. In the process of economic development, industrial carbon emissions account for the highest proportion. In particular, the carbon emissions from heavy industry are even more prominent. Gansu Province is one of the provinces in the western region with a relatively backward level of economic development. Its industrial structure is dominated by heavy industry. At present, it has formed a petrochemical industry and non-ferrous metallurgy. With the development of economy, energy consumption is increasing rapidly, and the pressure on ecology and environment is increasing. Therefore, the impact of industrial structure change on carbon emissions is studied. It is of great practical significance to realize low-carbon development in Gansu Province. This paper synthetically applies the theories of industrial economics, environmental economics, regional economics and so on, based on the panel data of Gansu Province from 1995 to 2014. This paper systematically analyzes the changes of industrial structure and energy consumption of various departments, establishes scientifically the measurement system of industrial carbon emissions in Gansu Province, and further explores the impact of industrial structure changes on carbon emissions through factor decomposition method. Finally, some suggestions are put forward to optimize the industrial structure. This paper concludes that the economic development of Gansu Province is now in the middle of industrialization, and the industrial structure belongs to the industrialization structure of "two, three, one". The proportion of the primary industry as a whole is in a downward trend, the proportion of the secondary industry has declined, the proportion of the tertiary industry has increased, especially since 2010, the proportion of the second industry in Gansu Province has decreased year by year, and the proportion of the third industry has increased year by year. The evolution trend of the industrial structure generally follows the benign development direction of "March 21".) the energy consumption in Gansu Province shows a fluctuating upward trend. The consumption structure is still dominated by coal, petroleum and other fossil energy sources, coal, etc. Crude oil accounts for more than 80% of energy consumption, which indicates that the demand for non-renewable resources such as coal and oil in Gansu Province is under great pressure.) the carbon emissions from energy consumption in Gansu Province as a whole are on the increase. It is only in 2009 that carbon emissions are falling, but not affecting the overall growth trend. Carbon emissions are concentrated in industry and account for more than 80 percent of the total carbon emissions, which are subsistence emissions, as the economy continues to develop. The growth of carbon emissions will continue; on the other hand, carbon emissions, while increasing, are increasingly concentrated in a few industries to facilitate technological improvements to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction.) as the economy continues to develop, carbon emissions continue to increase, However, the intensity of carbon emissions, that is, the carbon emissions per unit of GDP, has shown an obvious downward trend, which indicates that the energy efficiency of Gansu Province has been gradually improved, resulting in high energy consumption in economic development and a gradual improvement in the situation of high emissions between 1995 and 2014. Economic development is the main factor to promote the growth of industrial carbon emissions, the energy intensity factor is the main factor to restrain the growth of carbon emissions, and the industrial structure can restrain the growth of carbon emissions to a certain extent. The energy structure has little contribution to the increase of carbon emissions. The change of industrial proportion can directly affect the change of carbon emissions, and the increase of industrial proportion will lead to a positive industrial structure effect and promote the increase of carbon emissions. The decrease of industrial proportion will make the industrial structure effect negative and restrain the growth of carbon emissions.
【学位授予单位】：西北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F121.3;X22

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