我国农业大省三大产业关联度测算——以河南省为例

发布时间：2018-04-02 22:24

本文选题：农业大省　切入点：三大产业　出处：《中国农业资源与区划》2016年05期

【摘要】：农业大省是新常态下三大产业共同发展,传统与现代农业相互促进的省份。对我国农业大省三大产业关联度的测算有助于找准产业发展的突破点,为相关决策提供参考。河南省社会发展处于中国农业大省的平均水平,能够较全面、准确地代表我国农业大省的三大产业发展情况。故以河南省为例,选取该省1978~2013年的三大产业生产总指数建构VAR模型,利用单位根检验、Johansen协整关系检验、VEC误差修正模型、广义脉冲响应的方法对三大产业之间的长期动态关系进行了追踪、分析及预测。结果发现:(1)第一产业能为第二产业提供原材料等物质基础,在前期正向影响第二产业幅度较大,但未来并不及技术进步对第二产业的推动力大,因而后期这种正向影响会逐渐减弱;同时,第一产业因为不能提供相关市场、技术及其他资源要素,对第三产业影响虽然是正向的,但是并不显著。(2)第二产业会因占用耕地等问题先负向影响第一产业,但随着经济发展方式转变,第二产业会正向影响第一产业;第二产业与第三产业相辅相成,对第三产业有稳定的正向影响。(3)第三产业对第一产业与第二产业培养相关的专业人才及相关的技术设备,因而能对第一产业及第二产业产生正向且持续的影响,对第二产业的影响更加显著。可见,我国农业大省三大产业是动态的互动关联,因而农业大省应该结合社会经济发展阶段,顺应产业关联度变化来发展各产业。
[Abstract]:Agricultural province is a province where the three industries develop together under the new normal, and the traditional and modern agriculture promote each other.The calculation of the correlation degree of the three major industries in the big agricultural provinces of China is helpful to find the breakthrough point for the development of the right industries and to provide reference for the relevant decisions.The social development of Henan Province is in the average level of the big agricultural province of China, and it can represent the development of the three major industries of the big agricultural province of our country more comprehensively and accurately.Therefore, taking Henan Province as an example, this paper selects three major industrial production indices from 1978 to 2013 to construct the VAR model, and uses the unit root test Johansen cointegration relation to test the error correction model.The generalized impulse response method is used to track, analyze and predict the long-term dynamic relationship among the three industries.The results show that the primary industry can provide the material base such as raw materials for the secondary industry, and in the early stage it will positively affect the secondary industry by a large margin, but in the future it will not be able to promote the secondary industry as much as technological progress.As a result, this positive effect will gradually weaken in the later period. At the same time, because the primary industry is unable to provide the relevant market, technology and other resource elements, it will have a positive impact on the tertiary industry.However, it is not obvious that the second industry will have a negative influence on the primary industry because of the problem of occupying cultivated land. However, with the change of the mode of economic development, the second industry will positively affect the primary industry, and the secondary industry and the third industry will complement each other.The tertiary industry has a stable positive impact on the tertiary industry. (3) the tertiary industry has a positive and continuous impact on the primary industry and the secondary industry in terms of the training of related professionals and related technical equipment in the primary industry and the secondary industry.The impact on the secondary industry is even more pronounced.It can be seen that the three major industries of agricultural provinces in China are dynamic and interactive, so agricultural provinces should combine the stage of social and economic development and adapt to the changes of industrial correlation degree to develop various industries.
【作者单位】：河南科技大学管理学院;
【基金】：河南省科技厅软科学研究项目“河南省经济增长动因与经济发展方式研究”(132400410321) 河南省教育厅软科学项目“河南省经济增长方式转型中科技进步的贡献率、动力机制与对策研究”(12A630070)
【分类号】：F127

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