中国省际间产业区域转移的碳排放动态效应及影响机制

发布时间：2018-09-13 10:54

【摘要】：在理论分析基础上,基于STIRPAT扩展模型,运用动态面板数据模型实证了1995—2013年间中国产业转移过程中碳排放动态变化及区域差异。模型结果显示,经济发展水平、产业结构优化及工业碳排放强度的提升均会产生碳减排效应,这一效应在欠发达地区更为显著,碳排放具有明显路径依赖特征。人口因素存在不确定性,因此不能过高或简单评价人口绝对数量对碳排放的影响。进一步分析发现,就中国现阶段实际情况而言,尽管碳排放已成为经济发展的硬性外部约束,但是产业转移并不是碳转移的前提,关键还是在于经济发展与技术创新。因此,鼓励低碳技术创新、优化工业产业结构及制定区域差异化环境规制政策是实现我国碳减排的重要途径。
[Abstract]:Based on the theoretical analysis, the dynamic panel data model is used to demonstrate the dynamic changes of carbon emissions and regional differences in the process of industrial transfer in China from 1995 to 2013 based on the extended STIRPAT model. The model results show that the economic development level, industrial structure optimization and industrial carbon emission intensity increase will produce carbon emission reduction effect, this effect is more significant in less developed areas, carbon emissions have obvious path dependence characteristics. There is uncertainty in population factors, so the impact of absolute population size on carbon emissions cannot be overestimated or simply evaluated. Further analysis shows that, as far as the actual situation of China is concerned, although carbon emission has become a rigid external constraint for economic development, industrial transfer is not the premise of carbon transfer, but the key lies in economic development and technological innovation. Therefore, encouraging low-carbon technology innovation, optimizing industrial structure and formulating regional differentiated environmental regulation policy are important ways to achieve carbon emission reduction in China.
【作者单位】：中国矿业大学管理学院;
【基金】：江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目“基于低碳视阈的江苏省产业空间有序转移与区域协同研究”(KYZZ15_0371) 国家社科基金项目“经济新常态下中国生产性服务业与制造业协同演化机理与对策研究”(16CJL027) 教育部人文社科基金项目“新型城镇化与能源消费协同演化效应研究”(15YJA630106)
【分类号】：X22;F121.3

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