吉林省对外贸易发展动力问题研究

发布时间：2018-12-31 13:42

【摘要】：新常态下,从供给侧挖掘动力成为稳定经济的治本之路。自改革开放以后,中国依靠“投资、消费、出口”这三架马车,经济迅速增长。然而,目前全球经济增长趋势尚未明朗,市场需求有待回升,中国对外贸易正处于新的历史机遇期。东北的经济一直为人所“诟病”,其中吉林省对外贸易持续20年逆差,在此种国际经济背景下,可谓是突破外贸逆差的最佳准备阶段。本文主要从供给侧提取动力影响因素,研究其对吉林省对外贸易发展作用情况与关系,通过借鉴内陆省份如广西、新疆、上海市在对外贸易发展的经验可取之处,同时选取2000年至2015年的吉林省数据,综合吉林省技术创新产出、生产性服务业就业人数和政府对外贸易干预对吉林省对外贸易的发展影响,建立VAR模型。实证结果得出技术创新产出对对外贸易发展的贡献度最大,其次是政府对外贸易干预,最后是生产性服务业劳动力人数占总劳动力的比重,同时,也显现出这些因素在促进吉林省对外贸易发展过程中的动态特征:技术创新产出和生产性服务业就业人数占比在作用上,呈现出了一定的周期性,而政府对外贸易干预则作用迅速反馈,但是政策效果持续性不强,有两个原因,一是国际市场的需求并不旺盛,二是出口产品的差异性不强,也是技术创新高度不够的表现。建议吉林省应该加强技术创新的鼓励措施,调动企业技术创新的积极性,在技术创新产出上可以实施相应政策缩短技术创新产出的周期性,加强培训生产性服务人员的专业水平和业务能力,降低企业在新产品开发、投入市场、占领市场和培训人才方面的压力,缩短企业在国际市场策略的时间,从而增强吉林省的外贸出口能力。
[Abstract]:Under the new normal, excavating power from the supply side becomes the road of stabilizing economy. Since the reform and opening up, China relies on "investment, consumption, export" these three carriages, rapid economic growth. However, at present, the global economic growth trend is not clear, market demand needs to pick up, China's foreign trade is in a new historical opportunity period. The economy of Northeast China has been criticized by people all the time. Jilin Province's foreign trade deficit lasts for 20 years. In this international economic background, it can be described as the best preparation stage for breaking the foreign trade deficit. In this paper, the influence factors of power are extracted from the supply side, and the effect and relationship of the factors on the development of foreign trade in Jilin Province are studied. By learning from the experiences of inland provinces such as Guangxi, Xinjiang and Shanghai in the development of foreign trade, At the same time, the data of Jilin Province from 2000 to 2015 are selected, and the VAR model is established by synthesizing the technological innovation output of Jilin Province, the employment of producer services and the influence of government foreign trade intervention on the development of foreign trade in Jilin Province. The empirical results show that the contribution of technological innovation output to the development of foreign trade is the largest, followed by government foreign trade intervention, and finally, the proportion of the labor force of producer services to the total labor force, at the same time, It also shows the dynamic characteristics of these factors in the process of promoting the development of Jilin's foreign trade: the proportion of technological innovation output and the number of people employed in producer services are in effect, showing a certain periodicity. The foreign trade intervention of the government has a rapid feedback, but the effect of the policy is not strong, there are two reasons, one is that the demand in the international market is not exuberant, the other is the difference of the export products is not strong, and the high degree of technological innovation is not enough. It is suggested that Jilin Province should strengthen the encouraging measures of technological innovation, arouse the enthusiasm of enterprises' technological innovation, and implement corresponding policies to shorten the periodicity of technological innovation output. Strengthen the professional level and professional ability of training productive service personnel, reduce the pressure on enterprises to develop new products, put into the market, occupy the market and train talents, and shorten the time of enterprises' strategy in the international market. Thus strengthening the export capacity of Jilin Province.
【学位授予单位】：吉林华桥外国语学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.8

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