中国农产品贸易隐含碳测度研究

发布时间：2018-05-08 10:13

本文选题：农产品贸易 + 碳足迹　；参考：《华东师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国作为农业大国,其农产品进出口贸易不仅直接影响到农民切身利益,而且关系到社会和谐稳定发展、国家经济可持续发展。我国农产品进出口贸易快速发展的同时,农产品进出口贸易的竞争力却趋于下降,而国际上对于农产品进出口贸易保护主义形式多样性在一定程度上阻碍了我国农产品出口贸易,未来一旦对农产品进出口贸易征收"碳关税"将对农产品进出口贸易产生非常严重的不利影响。本文的研究问题是我国农产品进出口贸易隐含碳现状,我国是隐含碳净出口国还是净进口国,我国隐含碳的国别及产品结构分布。同时,借鉴以前学者对于生产、消费或者国际贸易不同领域对于我国隐含碳排放的研究,更加系统地阐述我国当前农产品隐含碳排放的现状,为我国发展低碳农产品进出口贸易提供切实可行的建议。本文研究方法主要基于多区域投入产出模型(MRIO),通过推导贸易隐含碳测算模型、贸易碳排放条件及贸易隐含碳结构分解,分析两国贸易隐含碳及隐含碳差额、剔除规模效应后某国对外贸易结构效应及技术效应的综合影响、碳排放过程中的结构效应、规模效应及技术效应。从农产品贸易隐含碳测度、农产品贸易隐含碳排放条件及隐含碳结构分解三大方面进行深入分析,阐述本文研究结论,提出本研究未涉及但有研究意义领域以及未来研究的展望。研究发现,自90年代以来,我国农产品进出口贸易二氧化碳直接排放系数及完全排放系数总体上呈现下降水平,但我国进口贸易完全排放系数远远低于出口贸易完全排放系数,一定程度上表明我国贸易伙伴国低碳农业技术相对而言比我国更为先进;2000年至2014年,我国农产品出口和进口贸易隐含碳走势与贸易规模基本一致,呈现从快速增长到增速平稳的态势,其中,进口贸易隐含碳规模增速及体量要高于出口贸易,我国农产品净出口隐含碳逆差额不断扩大,是农产品国际贸易净进口的国家;从国别角度分析,发展中国家是我国农产品出口贸易隐含碳主要碳排放国,但NAFTA和欧盟地区是我国重要的进口贸易隐含碳输入国,从分部门角度看,我国农产品贸易出口及进口隐含碳主要分布于谷物和动物生产、狩猎及相关活动;总体上,我国农产品贸易隐含碳排放条件(PTT)大于1,即中国农产品出口碳密集度大于进口;我国农产品贸易隐含碳结构分解中国,无论是进口还是出口贸易,规模效应均最明显,结构效应减弱,技术效应增强。因此,中国应当优化农产品出口贸易地区结构,降低对发达国家市场的依赖程度,推动我国农产品进出口贸易的国际市场多元化,提升农产品进出口贸易国际竞争力,从而减小农产品贸易隐含碳排放规模。与此同时,从我国资源禀赋角度出发,适当调整我国农产品进出口贸易结构,发展我国农产品加工业,提高农产品附加值。此外,加快现代运输服务业发展,大力组织及投入农产品运输基础设施建设,建立适应于现代农产品贸易的国际化市场大流通,改善农产品贸易运输条件。
[Abstract]:As a big agricultural country, the import and export trade of agricultural products not only directly affects the vital interests of farmers, but also relates to the harmonious and stable development of the society and the sustainable development of the national economy. At the same time, the competitive power of the import and export trade of agricultural products tends to decline, while the import and export trade of agricultural products is decreasing, and the import and export of agricultural products is in and out in the world. The diversity of the protectionism of the oral trade hinders the export trade of agricultural products in our country to a certain extent. In the future, once the "carbon tariff" is imposed on the import and export trade of agricultural products, it will have a very serious adverse effect on the import and export trade of agricultural products. The research problem is the present situation of the implied carbon in the import and export trade of agricultural products in China, and the implied carbon in China. As a net exporter or a net importer, China implies carbon country and the distribution of its product structure. At the same time, drawing on the previous scholars' research on the hidden carbon emissions in different fields of production, consumption or international trade, the present situation of the implied carbon emission of agricultural products in China is more systematically expounded, and the import and export trade of low carbon agricultural products is developed for our country. This method is mainly based on the multi region input-output model (MRIO). By deriving the trade implicit carbon calculation model, the trade carbon emission conditions and the implied carbon structure decomposition, the implied carbon and implied carbon difference in the two countries' trade are analyzed, and the foreign trade structure effect and the technical effect of a country after the regulation effect are eliminated. The structure effect, scale effect and technical effect in the process of carbon emissions are analyzed in three aspects: the implied carbon measurement of agricultural products trade, the implied carbon emission conditions of agricultural products trade and the decomposition of implied carbon structure, and the conclusion of this study, which are not involved but have research significance and future research. The research shows that since 90s, the carbon dioxide direct emission coefficient and the total emission coefficient of China's agricultural import and export trade show a decline level on the whole, but the total emission coefficient of China's import trade is far lower than the total emission coefficient of export trade, to a certain extent, it is clear that the low carbon agricultural technology in China's trade partner countries is relative to some extent. From 2000 to 2014, the implied carbon trend of the export and import trade of agricultural products in China is basically consistent with the trade scale, showing a steady trend from rapid growth to growth rate, in which the growth and volume of implied carbon in import trade are higher than that of export trade, and the implicit carbon negative difference in net export of agricultural products in China is expanding continuously. The country of net import of agricultural products in international trade; from the national point of view, the developing countries are the main carbon emitters in the export trade of agricultural products in China, but NAFTA and the EU are the important importing carbon countries of China's import trade. From the point of view, the export of agricultural products and the imported carbon are mainly distributed in grain and in China. Animal production, hunting and related activities; in general, China's agricultural products trade implied carbon emission conditions (PTT) is greater than 1, that is, China's agricultural products export carbon density is greater than imports; China's agricultural product trade implied carbon structure decomposition China, whether import or export trade, the most obvious model effect, structural effect weakened, technical effect enhanced. Therefore, China should optimize the regional structure of agricultural products export trade, reduce the dependence on the market of developed countries, promote the international market diversification of the import and export trade of agricultural products, enhance the international competitiveness of the import and export trade of agricultural products, and reduce the scale of implicit carbon emission in the trade of agricultural products. At the same time, from the angle of resources endowment of our country We should adjust the import and export trade structure of agricultural products in China, develop our agricultural products processing industry, improve the value-added of agricultural products. In addition, accelerate the development of modern transportation service industry, vigorously organize and invest in the construction of agricultural products transportation infrastructure, establish the large circulation of international market adapting to the modern agricultural products trade, and improve the trade transport bar of agricultural products trade. Pieces.

【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X196;F323.7;F752

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