技术变迁中的路径依赖研究

发布时间：2018-05-09 00:18

本文选题：路径依赖 + 路径解锁　；参考：《暨南大学》2006年硕士论文

【摘要】：如果某一市场的最终均衡状态不仅仅是由诸如技术水平、要素禀赋、市场偏好以及社会制度等传统意义上的市场外生变量所决定，“偶发的历史事件”也在其中发挥重要的作用，我们就可以把这个经济分配过程称之为路径依赖。技术变迁中的路径依赖意味着在某个技术市场中存在着潜在的多重均衡结果，何种均衡状态将成为最终的均衡结果将由那些市场分配过程中出现的特殊历史事件所决定。路径依赖过程是一个历史依赖的漫长过程，而并非在单一时间点作用。因此从技术性角度来说，产生路径依赖需要两个条件：①具有“虚拟”网络特性的市场，市场主体通过相互依存呈现正反馈结构特征；②某些具有特殊性质的技术，这些技术在经济变迁的过程中可以达到不同的潜在市场均衡，并对某一均衡路径“锁定”。技术路径依赖的产生原因主要包括以下几种：技术市场的初始状态、市场的报酬递增、历史突发小事件、网络外部性、转换成本、市场主体的有限理性和认知能力、以及学习效应等。从技术产品的特性来看，又可以分为以网络外部性为主要影响因素的路径依赖，和以学习效应为主要影响因素的路径依赖。前者是通过网络效应市场发挥作用，而后者则主要是在复杂产品市场中显示效果。本文利用了两个具体的数理模型对上述两种路径依赖进行了分析。在文章的最后，笔者试图对技术路径依赖的破解提供一些思路，其主要路径破解方式如下：第一，提高参与人的认知能力；第二，着力于改善外部环境；第三，通过利益诱导，，改变市场主体对新旧技术的偏好和预期；第四，引入外部冲击。
[Abstract]:If the final equilibrium of a market is determined not only by traditional exogenous variables such as technological level, factor endowment, market preference, and social system, "accidental historical events" also play an important role in this process, we can call this economic distribution process path dependence. Path dependence in technological change means that there are potential multiple equilibrium results in a technology market, and what equilibrium state will become the final equilibrium result will be determined by the special historical events in the process of market distribution. The path-dependent process is a long process of historical dependence, not at a single time point. Therefore, from a technical point of view, the generation of path dependence requires two conditions: 1, a market with "virtual" network characteristics, in which market agents present positive feedback structural characteristics through interdependence. These technologies can achieve different potential market equilibrium in the process of economic change, and "lock" a certain equilibrium path. The causes of technological path dependence include the initial state of the technology market, the increasing returns of the market, the historical emergencies, the network externality, the cost of conversion, the limited rationality and cognitive ability of the main body of the market. And learning effect. From the point of view of the characteristics of technology products, it can be divided into path dependence with network externality as the main influencing factor, and path dependence with learning effect as the main influencing factor. The former plays a role through the network effect market, while the latter mainly displays the effect in the complex product market. In this paper, two specific mathematical models are used to analyze the two kinds of path dependence. At the end of the article, the author tries to provide some ideas to the technical path dependence cracking, the main ways of path cracking are as follows: first, improve the participants' cognitive ability; second, focus on improving the external environment; third, through interest induction, Change the market's preferences and expectations of new and old technologies; fourth, introduce external shocks.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2006
【分类号】：F062.4

【引证文献】