中国居民消费的碳排放趋势及其影响因素的经验分析

发布时间：2018-03-08 00:35

本文选题：居民消费　切入点：碳排放　出处：《世界经济》2013年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文基于(进口)非竞争型投入产出模型估算了1992~2007年中国居民消费引致的碳排放量及其部门分布,并采用结构分解法分析了包括居民部门行为因素和生产部门行为因素在内的七大因素对消费碳排放变化的影响。结果发现:1992~2007年中国居民消费碳排放量呈较快增长趋势,是中国碳排放总量的重要组成部分;而居民消费碳排放主要来源于非化石能源产品与服务的消费所造成的间接排放,其中绝大部分又来自城镇居民的消费活动。结构分解分析显示,样本期内,中国居民消费碳排放量的迅速增加主要由能源产品及非能源产品与服务消费规模的增长造成,能源强度降低和能源消费结构变化是有效抑制其增加的主要因素,而生产部门能源使用结构的变化对其影响较小。另外,中间投入结构和产品消费结构有"高碳化"的趋势,已成为影响居民消费碳排放不可忽视的因素。
[Abstract]:Based on the (import) non-competitive input-output model, this paper estimates the carbon emissions caused by Chinese residents' consumption from 1992 to 2007 and their sectoral distribution. The influence of seven factors on the change of consumption carbon emissions was analyzed by using the structural decomposition method. The results showed that the consumption carbon emissions of Chinese residents increased rapidly from 1992 to 2007. It is an important part of the total amount of carbon emissions in China, and the consumption carbon emissions of residents mainly come from indirect emissions caused by the consumption of non-fossil energy products and services. Most of them come from the consumption activities of urban residents. Structural decomposition analysis shows that in the sample period, the rapid increase in consumption carbon emissions of Chinese residents is mainly caused by the increase in the scale of consumption of energy products and non-energy products and services. The decrease in energy intensity and changes in the energy consumption structure are the main factors that effectively inhibit their increase, while changes in the structure of energy use in the production sector have less impact on them. In addition, there is a "high carbonization" trend in the mix of intermediate inputs and product consumption, It has become a factor that can not be ignored to affect the consumption carbon emissions of residents.
【作者单位】：厦门大学经济学院国际经济与贸易系;厦门大学宏观经济研究中心;
【基金】：教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(12JJD790027) 国家自然科学基金面上项目(71073131) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-10-0714) 福建省社科规划重点项目(2012A009) 厦门大学国际经济与贸易系教育发展基金的资助
【分类号】：X196;F126;F224

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