我国市郊铁路客流特征分析及需求预测

发布时间：2018-04-10 22:37

本文选题：市郊铁路 + 客流特征　；参考：《铁道工程学报》2014年01期

【摘要】：研究目的:市郊铁路正逐步成为一种联系城市和郊区、城市和城市的满足长距离、大运量运输要求的重要交通运输方式。客流特征分析及需求预测对于市郊铁路规划和运营具有十分重要的作用。本文以北京市郊铁路S2线为研究对象,分析了我国市郊铁路的客流特征和客流需求预测方法,旨在为市郊铁路的长远发展打下基础。研究结论:(1)我国市郊铁路具有早晚高峰明显、节假日客流量高的时间分布特征,空间分布上具有上下行客流密度分布不均衡、客流集中度较高的特征;(2)市郊铁路客流在特殊时段内具有波动性和随机性,分布并不均衡,适合采用灰色GM(1,1)模型进行客流量预测,对北京S2线的实例研究取得了较高的预测精度和满意的预测结果;(3)本文对各城市市郊铁路客流量中长期预测的研究工作有一定的参考价值,可为市郊铁路的建设发展提供一定的理论支撑。
[Abstract]:Research objective: suburban railway is becoming an important mode of transportation to meet the requirements of long distance and large volume transportation, which is connected with the city and the suburb, the city and the city.Passenger flow characteristic analysis and demand prediction play an important role in suburban railway planning and operation.In this paper, the characteristics of passenger flow and the forecasting method of passenger flow demand of suburban railway in China are analyzed. The purpose of this paper is to lay a foundation for the long-term development of suburban railway in Beijing.The conclusion of the study is that the suburban railway in China has the characteristics of obvious peak in the morning and evening, high passenger flow during holidays, and uneven distribution of the density of passenger flow up and down in space.The passenger flow of suburban railway is fluctuating and random in a special period of time, and the distribution is not balanced, so it is suitable to use the grey GM1 / 1) model to forecast the passenger flow.A case study of the S2 Line in Beijing has obtained a high prediction accuracy and satisfactory prediction results. This paper has some reference value for the study of the mid-long term forecast of the passenger flow of the suburban railway in various cities.It can provide certain theoretical support for the construction and development of suburban railway.
【作者单位】：西南交通大学;
【分类号】：U239.5;U293.13

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