湖南入境旅游市场风险预警及防范研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 06:01

本文关键词：湖南入境旅游市场风险预警及防范研究　出处：《吉首大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：20世纪90年代中期以来，湖南省主要入境旅游市场发展进入新的阶段。随着中国经济的持续、稳定和高速发展，湖南对外开放程度的加大和旅游强省战略的实施，湖南入境旅游必将迎来新的广阔空间。入境旅游业的涉外性、游客增长的不确定性，使得入境旅游经营具有一定的风险性。研究湖南入境旅游市场特征、风险及其预警，对政府防范市场风险、降低旅行社经营损失，促进入境旅游业良性发展，具有重要的理论与实际意义。本文选取湖南省17个主要入境旅游市场，根据1995—2010年游客接待量数据，分析了各市场年均占有率、年均增长率、亲景度和游客集中度系数等指标，进而分析湖南入境旅游市场及14个地州市的市场特征与风险。通过构建市场风险预警系统，选取年均占有率、年均增长率、亲景度均值、人均GNP增长率、居民消费率和高等教育程度率6个风险预警指标，建立数理模型综合预警入境市场风险，划分市场风险警度区间，发布市场风险警情。通过问卷调查及访谈，就湖南入境旅游市场风险、风险预警与风险防范，进行定量与定性分析。本文从政府、旅行社及其它相关层面探讨了防范湖南入境旅游市场风险的主要措施：政府设立风险预警机构、加强市场调研与营销、挖掘产业优势和政策上扶持旅行社企业；旅行社增强风险预警与防范意识、加强风险预警指标数据与信息的搜集整理分析、市场多元化经营、采取市场补缺者策略、发展出境游对冲入境市场风险；旅游景区、旅行社涉外一线从业人员、社区居民、入境游客自身和媒体采取相关风险防范措施，从而全面预警及防范湖南入境旅游市场风险。文章最后分析了研究中存在的问题与不足，并对后续研究进行了展望。文章结合当前旅游业发展的不确定性以及发展中的利好形势，从风险预警角度探讨市场风险，对湖南省入境旅游业宏观战略制定及旅行社入境旅游微观预警以降低风险带来的经营损失，，具有重要的参考价值。
[Abstract]:Since the mid 1990s, the main inbound tourism market in Hunan province has entered a new stage of development. With the continuous China economy, stable and rapid development, the implementation of the opening degree and increase the Hunan province tourism strategy, Hunan inbound tourism will usher in a broad new space. International inbound tourism, tourist growth uncertainty. The inbound tourism business has some risks. The research of Hunan inbound tourism market, risk and early warning, the government to guard against market risks, reduce travel agency business losses, and promote the healthy development of tourism industry, has important theoretical and practical significance.
This paper selects Hunan province 17 main inbound tourism market, according to 1995 - 2010 visitors receive data, analysis of the annual market share, the average annual growth rate, the preference degree of tourists and the concentration index coefficient, and analysis of the characteristics and the market risks of Hunan inbound tourism market and the 14 prefectures in the market. The risk early warning system, select the average occupancy rate, the average annual growth rate, the preference scale average GNP per capita growth rate, consumption rate and higher education rate of 6 risk early warning indicators, establish mathematical model of comprehensive early warning entry market risk, market risk warning zone division, release of market risk through the questionnaire and interview. Hunan, inbound tourism market risk, risk warning and risk prevention, make quantitative and qualitative analysis.
This article from the government, travel agencies and other related aspects of the main measures to prevent Hunan inbound tourism market risk: the government set up a risk warning mechanism, strengthen the market research and marketing, mining industry advantage and policy support of travel agency travel agency; strengthen risk early warning and prevention awareness, strengthen the collection and analysis of data and information risk early-warning index consolidation, market diversification, market nicher strategy to take the development of outbound tourism, inbound tourism market hedge risk; foreign travel agency, first-line workers, community residents, tourists and the media to take its related risk prevention measures, so as to early warning and prevention of Hunan inbound tourism market risk.
Finally this paper analyzes the problems existing in the research and the insufficiency, and the subsequent research is prospected. Favorable situation combining with the current development of the tourism industry and the uncertainty in the development of the market risk from the perspective of risk warning on the inbound tourism of Hunan Province macro strategic formulation and the travel agency of inbound tourism micro warning to reduce business losses the risk, which has important reference value.

【学位授予单位】：吉首大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F592.7

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