影响我国粮食自给率波动的供求因素及对策研究

发布时间：2018-04-04 21:47

本文选题：粮食自给率　切入点：自给率波动　出处：《湖南科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：粮食是国民经济的基础和人类赖以生存的必需品,是治国安邦的战略物资。粮食安全始终是关系国民经济发展、社会稳定和国家自立的全局性战略问题。粮食自给率是衡量粮食安全的一个非常重要的指标,我国历来高度重视粮食自给率水平。1996年发布的《中国粮食问题》白皮书和2008年发布的《国家粮食安全中长期规划纲要(2008-2020年)》都提出了高自给率的目标,坚持粮食立足国内生产。然而,随着粮食国际化程度的提高,贸易对粮食自给率的影响逐渐显现出来。粮食生产出现了高生产量、高收购量、高库存量的“三高”叠加的特殊现象。粮食自给率却呈现出不断下降的趋势,尤其是近几年来下降非常明显,已经跌破90%的警戒线。为此,我国适时调整粮食自给率目标,2014年首次提出了粮食“适度进口”战略。本文在梳理1992年以来我国粮食自给率政策演变的基础上,分别测算了1992-2013年的我国狭义粮食自给率、广义粮食自给率、粮油自给率和营养素自给率,接着从理论上分析了我国加入WTO前后两个阶段粮食自给率波动的影响因素,然后构建半对数计量模型,并运用OLS最小二乘法估计了各变量对我国粮食自给率的影响效应。研究发现,加入WTO以前,影响粮食自给率的因素主要是传统的国内的粮食供给和需求;加入WTO以后,贸易通过作用于我国的粮食供给和需求,扩大了我国粮食净进口量,降低了我国粮食自给率水平,其中虚拟变量WTO和粮食贸易量对我国粮食自给率的抑制作用最大,系数分别为-0.3163和-0.2927。最后根据分析结论提出了保障我国粮食安全的粮食自给率的对策:立足适度进口战略,科学确定粮食自给率;高度重视食物生产,切实防止非农化倾向;确保三大主粮自给,分类确定食物自给率;创新国际合作方式,确保食物进口多元化;强化国际贸易措施,增强食物进口话语权。
[Abstract]:Grain is the foundation of the national economy and the necessity of human survival, is the strategic goods of national security.Food security is always an overall strategic problem related to the development of national economy, social stability and national independence.The self-sufficiency rate of grain is a very important indicator to measure food security.China has always attached great importance to the level of self-sufficiency of grain. The White Paper on China's Grain problem issued in 1996 and the outline of the National medium and long term Program for Food Security issued in 2008 have both set the goal of high self-sufficiency rate and insisted that grain should be based on domestic production.However, with the increase of grain internationalization, the influence of trade on grain self-sufficiency rate gradually appears.The special phenomenon of "three high" superposition of high production, high purchase quantity and high inventory appeared in grain production.However, the grain self-sufficiency rate has been decreasing, especially in recent years, which has fallen below the 90% warning line.Therefore, our country adjusts the grain self-sufficiency rate target in time, and puts forward the grain "moderate import" strategy for the first time in 2014.On the basis of combing the evolution of China's grain self-sufficiency rate policy since 1992, this paper calculates the narrow grain self-sufficiency rate, the generalized grain self-sufficiency rate, the grain and oil self-sufficiency rate and the nutrient self-sufficiency rate in China from 1992 to 2013.Then the paper theoretically analyzes the influencing factors of the fluctuation of grain self-sufficiency rate in two stages before and after China's entry into WTO, then constructs a semi-logarithmic econometric model, and estimates the effect of each variable on the grain self-sufficiency rate by using the OLS least square method.It is found that before China's entry into WTO, the main factors affecting the grain self-sufficiency rate are the traditional domestic grain supply and demand, and after China's entry into WTO, trade has expanded the net grain import through the effect of China's grain supply and demand.The level of grain self-sufficiency rate in China was reduced, and the virtual variable WTO and the grain trade volume had the most inhibitory effect on the self-sufficiency rate of grain in China, with coefficients of -0.3163 and -0.2927 respectively.Finally, according to the conclusion of the analysis, the paper puts forward the countermeasures of ensuring the grain self-sufficiency rate of our country's grain security: base on the moderate import strategy, scientifically determine the grain self-sufficiency rate; attach great importance to food production, effectively prevent the non-agricultural tendency; ensure the self-sufficiency of the three main grains.Classification determines the food self-sufficiency rate; innovates international cooperation to ensure the diversification of food imports; strengthens international trade measures; strengthens the voice of food imports.
【学位授予单位】：湖南科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.11

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