基于结构方程模型的高寒生态脆弱区农户的气候变化感知研究——以甘南高原为例

发布时间：2018-05-03 17:03

本文选题：农牧户 + 气候变化　；参考：《生态学报》2017年10期

【摘要】：农户对气候变化的感知是其适应行动选择的基础,弄清楚影响农户气候变化感知的关键因素,辨明农户气候变化感知的形成机制,对制定有效的适应策略至关重要。以甘南高原为研究区,基于539份入户调查数据,构建了路径模型,分析了影响农牧户气候变化感知的关键因素及其作用路径,结果发现:(1)客观适应能力对农牧户的气候变化风险感知及适应感知有显著的正向影响;(2)气候变化信息对农牧户的气候变化风险感知及适应感知有显著的正向影响,它还通过客观适应能力间接影响农牧户的气候变化感知;(3)社会话语信任度对农牧户的气候变化风险感知及适应感知有显著的正向影响,适应激励对农牧户的气候变化适应感知有显著的正向影响,但对风险感知产生显著的负向影响,同时,社会话语信任度及适应激励均通过气候变化信息及客观适应能力而间接影响农牧户的气候变化感知。最后,基于影响甘南高原农牧户气候变化感知的关键因素,提出了提高农牧户的气候变化认知水平及气候变化适应行为有效性的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Farmers' perception of climate change is the basis of their choice of adaptation actions. It is very important to find out the key factors that affect farmers' perception of climate change and to identify the formation mechanism of farmers' perception of climate change. Taking the Gannan Plateau as the research area, based on 539 household survey data, a path model was constructed, and the key factors affecting the perception of climate change among farmers and pastoralists were analyzed. The results showed that the objective adaptation ability had a significant positive effect on the climate change risk perception and adaptation perception of farmers and pastoralists.) the climate change information had a significant positive impact on the climate change risk perception and adaptation perception of farmers and pastoral households. It also has a significant positive effect on the perception of climate change risk and adaptation of farmers and pastoralists through the indirect influence of objective adaptive ability on the climate change perception of farmers and pastoralists (3) the social discourse trust has a significant positive impact on the perception of climate change risk and adaptation of farmers and pastoralists. Adaptation incentive has a significant positive effect on climate change adaptation perception of farmers and pastoralists, but has a significant negative impact on risk perception, at the same time, Social discourse trust and adaptation incentive indirectly affect farmers' perception of climate change through climate change information and objective adaptability. Finally, based on the key factors that affect the perception of climate change of farmers and pastoralists in the Gannan Plateau, the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the cognition level of climate change and the effectiveness of climate change adaptation behavior of farmers and pastoralists are put forward.
【作者单位】：西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院;中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41661115,41361106,41471116) 中国科学院内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室开放基金(KLEIRB-2S-16-03)
【分类号】：F323.6;S162

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