林木生物质能源资源供给能力评价及影响因素分析

发布时间：2019-01-18 10:51

【摘要】：随着能源紧缺和环境问题的日益凸显,寻找新型可再生能源来替代传统化石能源已成为亟待解决的问题。林木生物质的能源化利用成为全球关注的焦点,它所具有的可再生性、高效清洁性、环境友好性等特点给其带来巨大的发展潜力,各国政府也相继制定有关政策和措施促进林木生物能源的大力发展。目前,我国正处于林木生物质能源的初级发展阶段,林木生物质能源的资源储量和分布具有较大差异,正确有效地评估林木生物质能源资源供给能力是林木生物质能源化的基础和前提,也为发展林木生物质能源提供了可靠的保障。因此,本文基于1999年-2013年的省级数据,在估算林木生物质能源资源可获取量的基础上,考虑内、外部因素综合评价其资源供给能力,并以面板数据分位数回归模型为基础,定量化地分析相关因素对于林木生物质能源资源供给能力的影响。研究结果表明：从整体来看,我国林木生物质能源的资源可获取量呈稳定增长趋势；各地区林木生物质能源的资源储量和分布存在较大差异,大多数省市具有较好的林木生物质能源资源供给能力,特别是蕴含丰富林业资源的省市,如内蒙古、黑龙江、广西、四川和云南；资源规模、林龄结构、林业投资、林业政策、能源需求和土地状态对资源供应能力具有显著的正向影响,气候条件、造林制度和经济发展水平呈现显著的负向作用；在不同的林木生物质能源资源可获取量上,相关影响因素对其制约程度存在差异。因此,根据我国各省市所处的地理位置、资源条件、社会经济水平以及政策支持力度的不同,发展林木生物质能源不可同一而论,应针对每个省市不同的特点,采取相关措施保障林木生物质能源资源的稳定供给能力。
[Abstract]:With the increasing shortage of energy and environmental problems, finding new renewable energy to replace the traditional fossil energy has become an urgent problem. The energy utilization of forest biomass has become the focus of global attention. It has the characteristics of renewability, high efficiency and cleanliness, environmental friendliness and so on, which bring great potential for its development. Governments have also formulated policies and measures to promote the development of forest bioenergy. At present, China is in the primary stage of development of forest biomass energy, and the resource reserves and distribution of forest biomass energy have great differences. Correctly and effectively evaluating the supply capacity of forest biomass energy resources is the basis and premise of forest biomass energy conversion, and also provides a reliable guarantee for the development of forest biomass energy. Therefore, based on the provincial data from 1999 to 2013, and on the basis of estimating the available amount of forest biomass energy resources, considering the internal and external factors, this paper comprehensively evaluates its resource supply capacity, and based on the panel data quantile regression model. Quantitative analysis of the impact of relevant factors on the supply capacity of forest biomass energy resources. The results show that: from the overall point of view, the availability of forest biomass energy resources in China shows a steady growth trend; There are great differences in the reserves and distribution of forest biomass energy resources in different regions. Most provinces and cities have better supply capacity of forest biomass energy resources, especially those provinces and cities that contain abundant forestry resources, such as Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Guangxi, etc. Sichuan and Yunnan; The scale of resources, forest age structure, forestry investment, forestry policy, energy demand and land status have significant positive effects on resource supply capacity, climate conditions, afforestation system and economic development level show significant negative effects; There are differences in the degree of restriction of relative factors on the available amount of forest biomass energy resources. Therefore, according to the different geographical position, the resources condition, the social economic level and the policy support strength of the provinces and cities in our country, the development of the forest biomass energy is not the same, but should be aimed at the different characteristics of each province and city. Take relevant measures to ensure the stable supply capacity of forest biomass energy resources.
【学位授予单位】：北京林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：S78;F326.2

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