面向碳汇供给的营林技术创新响应机理与系统仿真研究

发布时间：2019-03-15 08:42

【摘要】：基于农户决策过程的理性行为假设,运用系统极限理论构建一个碳汇目标下区域营林技术创新的农户响应模型,并以中国南方集体林区浙江省杉木人工林地的营林技术创新响应机制为案例进行了仿真分析。结果表明,未来10a(2016—2025年)期间,碳价格将由目前的128元/吨上升至650元/吨,但在当前木材市场价格处于高位水平下,虽然碳价格逐年上升,可是除劣等地与中等地的农户对碳汇营林技术的创新响应概率最终能够达到0.862 7之外,优等地的农户响应概率仍然为0.481 4,即0.5以下,处于不响应状态,这说明未来碳价格的上升对优等地农户的营林技术创新响应并不敏感,优等地农户当前以木材为经营目标的传统营林技术模式不会发生明显改变。并进一步探讨所得结论的科学性。
[Abstract]:Based on the rational behavior hypothesis of farmers' decision-making process, a farmers' response model of regional forestry technology innovation under the carbon sink goal is constructed by using the system limit theory. The technological innovation response mechanism of Cunninghamia lanceolata plantation in Zhejiang Province was simulated and analyzed. The results show that the carbon price will increase from 128 yuan / ton to 650 yuan / ton in the next 10 years (2016-2025), but under the current high level of wood market price, although the carbon price is rising year by year, However, with the exception of the innovative response probability of farmers in inferior and middle places to carbon sequestration technology, the response probability of farmers in excellent and other places is still 0.481 4, that is, less than 0.862, which is in an unresponsive state, except that the probability of innovative response to carbon sequestration technology can finally reach 0.862 7. This shows that the future increase of carbon price is not sensitive to the technological innovation response of the farmers in the superior areas, and the traditional forest technology pattern of the farmers in the superior areas will not change obviously at present with timber as the management goal. And further probe into the scientific nature of the conclusion.
【作者单位】：浙江农林大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于企业减排的森林碳汇需求形成机理与差异化政策研究”(71473230);“竹林碳汇增长机理、综合潜力与政策研究”(71273245) 浙江农林大学科研发展基金项目“碳交易情景下浙江省林地利用的社区决策机制研究”(2034020080)
【分类号】：F326.2

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