我国财政极限的测算及影响因素分析——利用含体制转换的DSGE模型对全国及主要省份的研究

发布时间：2018-09-14 10:41

【摘要】：本文构建了一个含体制转换的简单DSGE模型,将政府债务变化、财政政策预期与财政极限的讨论纳入到一个统一框架中。在不确定环境下,通过对未来财政盈余的贴现,得到一般均衡框架下政府可承受债务水平的极限。结合我国的实际债务状况,我们对全国及主要地方政府面临的财政极限进行了研究。研究得到:(1)当前我国政府广义负债率已超过55%,且无论在短期、中期还是长期内,政府财政收支都将面临较大潜在压力;(2)通过对全国及主要省份财政极限的模拟,在稳定的财政支出条件下,我国中央财政极限分布的期望值为0.87,各主要省份财政极限分布的期望水平均处于0.6至1.9的区间范围内;(3)不同省份间财政极限的差异主要源于区域经济发展、地方政府财政收支结构、中央与地方财政收支之间的关系以及宏观政策决策等因素。(4)财政收支政策的变化,可能引起政府债务水平升高,并改变人们对未来宏观政策的预期,从而造成宏观经济运行的不稳定。因此,应尽快形成财政政策规则,完善政府财政预算制度,有效锚定财政预期,以保证货币、财政及宏观审慎政策的调控效果。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a simple DSGE model with institutional transformation is constructed, which includes the discussion of government debt change, fiscal policy expectation and fiscal limit into a unified framework. In the uncertain environment, by discounting the future fiscal surplus, the limit of the government's debt can be obtained under the general equilibrium framework. Combined with the actual debt situation of our country, we study the fiscal limit faced by the national and main local governments. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) at present, the debt ratio of our government in the broad sense has exceeded 55.5%, and in the short, medium and long term, the government's fiscal revenue and expenditure will all face great potential pressure; (2) through the simulation of the fiscal limits of the whole country and the major provinces, Under the conditions of stable fiscal expenditure, The expected value of central financial limit distribution in China is 0.87, and the expected level of financial limit distribution in each major province is within the range of 0.6 to 1.9. (3) the difference of financial limit between different provinces is mainly due to the development of regional economy. The structure of local government's fiscal revenue and expenditure, the relationship between central and local fiscal revenue and expenditure, and macro policy decisions. (4) the change of fiscal revenue and expenditure policy may cause the level of government debt to rise and change people's expectation of future macro policy. As a result, macroeconomic operation is unstable. Therefore, the rules of fiscal policy should be formed as soon as possible, the government budget system should be perfected, and fiscal expectations should be effectively anchored in order to ensure the control effect of monetary, fiscal and macro-prudential policies.
【作者单位】：中国人民银行研究局;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71173233) 国家社会科学基金重大项目(11&ZD016);国家社会科学基金项目(11CJY103)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F812

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