产业结构、经济增长与服务业成本

发布时间：2018-01-13 11:38

本文关键词：产业结构、经济增长与服务业成本病——来自中国的经验证据　出处：《产业经济研究》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：基于"服务业之谜"事实的存在,要验证Baumol非平衡增长模型提出的"效率-结构-速度"之间的关系,关键不在于对服务业需求价格弹性的核算,而是对生产率决定相对价格水平的证实。以"服务业之谜"的存在为前提,在服务业与工业部门间产品的消费行为中构造了互补的"里昂惕夫"效用函数,重构Baumol非平衡增长模型。采用我国31个省1984—2014年面板数据进行实证分析,验证了工业及工农业相对于服务业的劳动生产率、服务业相对于工业及相对于工农业的价格水平、服务业占非农及占整个国民经济部门产出份额、服务业占非农及总就业人数比重等核心变量之间的关系。其内在逻辑是相对生产率决定相对价格水平,相对价格的提高导致了服务业部门份额的提升,进而降低了经济增长速度。由此证实了我国基本存在Baumol非平衡增长模型所揭示的"效率-结构-速度"之间关系:工业生产率相对上升导致服务业价格相对提高和就业份额提升,进而引发经济增速放缓。在经济"新常态"下关注效率提升、结构调整与增速放缓之间的内在联系,具有相应的理论基础和经验支持,同时应理性看待结构调整中出现的"服务业成本病"现象,实现"结构"与"速度"之间的良性互动。
[Abstract]:Based on the existence of the "mystery of service industry", to verify the relationship between "efficiency, structure and speed" proposed by the Baumol non-equilibrium growth model, the key is not to calculate the price elasticity of service demand. On the premise of the existence of "the mystery of service industry", this paper constructs a complementary "Lyontief" utility function in the consumption behavior of products between the service and industrial sectors. Reconstruction of Baumol non-equilibrium growth model. Empirical analysis using panel data of 31 provinces from 1984 to 2014 verifies the labor productivity of industry and agriculture relative to service industry. The service industry is relative to the price level of industry and industry and agriculture, and the service industry accounts for the output share of non-agriculture and the whole national economy sector. The internal logic is that relative productivity determines the relative price level, and the increase of relative price leads to the increase of service sector share. Thus, the relationship between efficiency, structure and speed, which is revealed by the Baumol non-equilibrium growth model, is proved to exist in China. The relative rise in industrial productivity has led to a relative increase in the prices of services and an increase in the share of employment. In the "new normal" of the economy, we pay attention to the internal relationship between the efficiency improvement, the structural adjustment and the slowdown of the growth rate, which has the corresponding theoretical basis and experience support. At the same time, the phenomenon of "service industry cost disease" in structural adjustment should be treated rationally, and the benign interaction between "structure" and "speed" should be realized.
【作者单位】：南京大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDA060)
【分类号】：F719;F121.3;F124.1
【正文快照】： 一、引言与文献综述威廉·配第最早揭示了三次产业结构演变的规律性,提出了农业比重持续下降、工业比重先升后降、服务业比重逐步提高的“配第-克拉克定律”。亚当·斯密最早将产业结构演变与经济增长相联系,将工农业等物质生产部门视为生产性劳动,将服务业等非物质生产部门视

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