基于经济增长视角的我国消费需求不足问题研究

发布时间：2018-03-28 18:18

本文选题：消费　切入点：经济增长　出处：《青岛大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：长期以来,投资、消费、出口被认为是拉动经济增长的三驾马车。审视改革开放三十年我国经济发展的步伐,伴随高投资与出口导向型的经济发展战略,中国的经济获得了飞速的发展,然而这一发展模式却引致消费在我国三驾马车中的长期次要地位。而至目前这一发展模式逐渐显现困境。以此为契机,探寻提高我国消费需求,是破解这一困境的关键之所在。首先,阐述了我国目前消费不足的现状。尔后,对消费和经济增长进行关联性分析,进而以格兰杰方法检验了消费与经济增长的因果关系。结果显示,我国目前存在消费需求不足的现状,消费对经济增长的贡献率和拉动率不高,且消费不是GDP的格兰杰原因,从而印证了我国目前消费不足的现状。在此基础上,通过定性与定量相结合的方式深刻剖析了影响消费的主要因素。此外,研究表明,居民当前收入及其滞后期收入、预防性储蓄、基尼系数对我国居民消费水平有着显著的正向促进效应,三者的影响大小也呈现逐渐递减的关系。值得注意的是,虽然本研究得出了基尼系数对消费具有正向影响的这一有悖于经典理论的实证结论,但给出了基于中国经济实践的合理解释,然而从长期来看,随着我国经济的发展、居民收入水平的提高、社会保障体系的逐步完善,二者的关系将逐步回归至经典理论的范畴。当然,这同样会伴随着预防性储蓄对消费影响的下降。由此可见,未来我国应该在提高居民收入水平的基础上,着力推进社会保障体系建设,以此来提高居民消费水平
[Abstract]:For a long time, investment, consumption and export have been regarded as the troika of economic growth. To examine the pace of China's economic development during the past 30 years of reform and opening up, accompanied by a strategy of high investment and export-oriented economic development, China's economy has achieved rapid development, but this pattern of development has led to the long-term secondary position of consumption in the troika of our country. Is the key to solving this dilemma. First of all, the paper expounds the current situation of insufficient consumption in China. After that, it analyzes the relationship between consumption and economic growth, and then tests the causality between consumption and economic growth by Granger method. The results show that, There is insufficient consumption demand in our country at present, the contribution rate and pull rate of consumption to economic growth are not high, and consumption is not the Granger reason of GDP, which confirms the current situation of insufficient consumption in our country. Through the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis of the main factors affecting consumption. In addition, the study shows that residents' current income and their delayed income, precautionary savings and Gini coefficient have a significant positive effect on the consumption level of Chinese residents. It is worth noting that although the Gini coefficient has a positive effect on consumption, it is contrary to the classical theory that the Gini coefficient has a positive effect on consumption. But it gives a reasonable explanation based on China's economic practice. However, in the long run, with the development of China's economy, the improvement of residents' income level, and the gradual improvement of social security system, The relationship between the two will gradually return to the realm of classical theory. Of course, this will also be accompanied by a decline in the impact of precautionary savings on consumption. Promoting the Construction of Social Security system to improve the consumption level of residents
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124.1;F126

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