经济新常态下中国跨越“中等收入陷阱”影响因素分析及跨越路径探寻

发布时间：2018-03-29 03:39

本文选题：经济新常态　切入点：中等收入陷阱　出处：《经济问题探索》2017年07期

【摘要】：笔者基于1987年—2015年的数据,通过计量方法,实证检验了社会经济发展状况、人口因素、产业结构和科技水平对中国能否成功跨越"中等收入陷阱"的影响。结果表明,GDP增长适当降速、科技进步以及社会消费零售总额对中国跨越"中等收入陷阱"具有正向效应;人口自然增长率、第二和第三产业对GDP贡献率对中国跨越"中等收入陷阱"具有负向效应;GDP增长率、人口因素、社会消费零售总额和科技水平与人均国民收入存在格兰杰因果关系,第二和第三产业对GDP贡献率与人均国民收入之间不存在格兰杰因果关系。而且从长期来看,GDP增长速率、人口自然增长率、社会消费总额、科技进步水平等因素对人均国民收入影响显著,而产业结构因素对人均国民收入影响较小。
[Abstract]:Based on the data from 1987 to 2015, the author empirically tests the social and economic development and the population factors through the measurement method. The effects of industrial structure and technological level on whether China can successfully overcome the "middle-income trap". The results show that the GDP growth is decreasing at a suitable rate, and the progress of science and technology and the total amount of social consumption retail sales have positive effects on China's crossing the "middle-income trap". The natural growth rate of population, the contribution rate of the second and tertiary industries to GDP has a negative effect on China's crossing the "middle income trap". There is a Granger causality relationship between the total amount of social consumption retail sales and the level of science and technology and per capita national income, while there is no Granger causality relationship between the contribution rate of the second and tertiary industries to GDP and per capita national income. The natural population growth rate, total social consumption and the level of scientific and technological progress have a significant impact on per capita national income, while industrial structure factors have little effect on per capita national income.
【作者单位】：辽宁大学经济学院;河南职业技术学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目“制度变迁视角下的中国二元经济转型研究”(11&ZD146) 辽宁省教育厅哲学社会科学重大基础理论项目“二元经济转型中收入分配的动态演变”(ZW2013003)阶段成果,项目主持人:张桂文
【分类号】：F124.7

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