东北地区物流产业对经济增长影响的统计分析

发布时间：2018-04-15 05:38

本文选题：东北地区 + 格兰杰　；参考：《辽宁大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着全球信息化时代的到来,现代物流产业涌现出巨大的发展潜力。近年来,我国物流产业蓬勃发展,随之而来,它对经济增长作用的战略地位愈加凸显。而根据2015年我国各省经济的排名,东北三省经济整体下滑,可以看出近几年东北地区的经济增速较慢。2015年我国“一带一路”战略的实施,将东北地区定位为向东北亚开放的重要窗口,这正是一个可以振兴东北经济的良好契机,凭借东北地区的区位优势,必定会为东北经济的发展注入新的活力。物流产业作为经济发展中各个部门链接的纽带,在生产生活中都是不可或缺的。因此,要想在新一轮的发展中振兴东北经济,必须对物流产业的发展引起足够重视。本文通过物流产业对东北地区经济增长影响的统计分析,借鉴发达地区的先进物流管理理念,比较它们之间的差异性,指出目前东北地区物流发展上存在的问题,并给出适宜的建议,是非常重要和必要的。本文的研究内容主要包括:第一,检验了东北地区物流产业与经济增长的关系,即使用格兰杰因果检验方法,验证了物流需求、供给和总体发展三个指标与经济增长之间的关系,结论是物流需求与经济增长的作用关系最强,二者互为Granger成因。第二,构建了东北地区Logistic函数模型,通过边际、弹性和拐点分析对东北地区的物流发展水平有了一定认识,结论是目前东北地区物流发展水平对经济的贡献程度仍处在递增阶段,经济对物流产业的变动越来越敏感。第三,构建了 1996-2015年全国八大经济区的面板数据,将东北地区与其他区域进行了比较研究,重点分析了促进经济增长的物流影响因素的差异性,并从物流需求、供给和总体发展角度进行深入分析,找出东北物流发展的差距所在,从而提出更具有针对性的政策建议。本文的创新之处在于,给出了选取货物周转量作为Logistic函数中解释变量的合理依据。在以往文献中,绝大多数学者没有对这一指标的选取做出合理解释,缺少一定说服力。
[Abstract]:With the arrival of the global information age, the modern logistics industry has emerged enormous development potential.In recent years, the logistics industry of our country develops vigorously, and its strategic position on economic growth becomes more and more prominent.According to the economic ranking of the provinces in China in 2015, the economy of the three Northeast provinces as a whole has declined, it can be seen that the economic growth rate of the Northeast region in recent years has been relatively slow. In 2015, the implementation of the "Belt and Road" strategy in China,Positioning the Northeast region as an important window of opening to Northeast Asia is a good opportunity for revitalizing the Northeast economy. Depending on the location advantage of the Northeast region, it will surely inject new vitality into the development of the Northeast economy.Logistics industry, as a link between various departments in economic development, is indispensable in production and life.Therefore, if we want to revitalize the northeast economy in the new round of development, we must pay enough attention to the development of logistics industry.Based on the statistical analysis of the influence of logistics industry on the economic growth in Northeast China, this paper draws lessons from the advanced logistics management concepts in developed regions, compares their differences, and points out the existing problems in the development of logistics in Northeast China.It is very important and necessary to give appropriate suggestions.The main contents of this paper are as follows: first, the relationship between logistics industry and economic growth in Northeast China is tested, even the Granger causality test is used to verify the logistics demand.The relationship between supply and overall development and economic growth. The conclusion is that the relationship between logistics demand and economic growth is the strongest, and the two are the cause of Granger.Secondly, the Logistic function model of Northeast China is constructed, and the level of logistics development in Northeast China is recognized by the analysis of margin, elasticity and inflection point.The conclusion is that the contribution of logistics development level to economy in Northeast China is still increasing, and the economy is more and more sensitive to the change of logistics industry.Thirdly, the panel data of the eight economic zones of China from 1996 to 2015 are constructed, and the comparative study between Northeast China and other regions is carried out, and the difference of logistics influence factors that promote economic growth is analyzed, and the demand of logistics is analyzed from the point of view of logistics demand.From the perspective of supply and overall development, this paper analyzes the gap of northeast logistics development, and puts forward more targeted policy recommendations.The innovation of this paper is that the reasonable basis for choosing the goods turnover as the explanatory variable in the Logistic function is given.In the previous literature, most scholars have not made a reasonable explanation for the selection of this index and lack of persuasion.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127;F259.27

【参考文献】