贵州全要素生产率与经济增长分析

发布时间：2018-04-29 18:05

本文选题：经济增长 + Malmquist指数法　；参考：《贵州财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放后，贵州省全省的生产总值1978年为46.62亿元，而到2012年增长到了6852.20亿元，三十多年间的年平均增长率为10.02%（按1978年不变价格）。然而贵州省经济增长的质量到底怎样，其经济增长的主要源泉究竟是要素的投入还是全要素生产率的提高，这些问题都是值得探索的。本文选用Malmquist指数法对贵州省各市州1978年到2012年的全要素生产率进行了测算。结果表明，贵州省1978年到2012年间的全要素生产率增长率为正，年均增长率为6.3%。将全要素生产率变化分解，认为是技术进步和效率改进共同促进了贵州省的全要素生产率的提高，，而全要素生产率的增长主要是来自于技术进步的提高，效率改进有待提高；各市州的全要素生产率的增长最主要是来源于技术进步的提高，效率变化在一定程度上阻碍了部分地区全要素生产率的增长，例如安顺、铜仁、黔东南和黔南等地区。对贵州省各市州的经济增长率和全要素生产率增长率进行了比较，发现经济增长与全要素生产率增长存在着一致性：全要素生产率增长率高的地区，其经济增长速度也快。全要素生产率是推动经济快速发展的一个重要因素。可以利用全要素生产率增长率差异来分析地区经济发展的差异。本文还对贵州省经济增长与全要素生产率增长率的关系进行了研究，全要素生产率增长率与经济增长率有相同的走势。从短期看来，经济增长率的格兰杰原因是全要素生产率增长率。对经济增长率与全要素生产率增长率做回归，发现全要素生产率与经济增长密切相关，是促进经济持续发展的重要指标。此外，本文还比较了全要素生产率与其他要素对经济增长的贡献度，发现贵州当前的经济增长的主要动力是全要素生产率的增长。
[Abstract]:After reform and opening up, the GDP of Guizhou province was 4.662 billion yuan in 1978, but increased to 685.22 billion yuan in 2012. The average annual growth rate for more than 30 years was 10.02 yuan (at the same price in 1978). However, the quality of Guizhou's economic growth and whether the main source of its economic growth is the input of factors or the improvement of total factor productivity is worth exploring. In this paper, Malmquist index method is used to measure the total factor productivity (TFP) from 1978 to 2012. The results show that the growth rate of total factor productivity (TFP) in Guizhou Province is positive from 1978 to 2012, with an average annual growth rate of 6.3%. The change of total factor productivity (TFP) is divided into two parts: technological progress and efficiency improvement, which promote the improvement of TFP in Guizhou province, and the increase of TFP comes mainly from the improvement of technological progress, and the improvement of efficiency needs to be improved. The increase of total factor productivity in all cities and prefectures is mainly due to the improvement of technology, and the change of efficiency hinders the growth of total factor productivity in some areas, such as Anshun, Tongren, Southeast Guizhou and South Guizhou. This paper compares the economic growth rate with the total factor productivity growth rate in all the cities and states of Guizhou Province. It is found that there is consistency between the economic growth rate and the total factor productivity growth rate: in the regions with high total factor productivity growth rate, the economic growth rate is also rapid. Total factor productivity is an important factor to promote rapid economic development. The difference of total factor productivity growth rate can be used to analyze the difference of regional economic development. This paper also studies the relationship between the economic growth rate and the total factor productivity growth rate in Guizhou province. The total factor productivity growth rate has the same trend as the economic growth rate. In the short term, the Granger cause of economic growth is total factor productivity growth. The regression of the economic growth rate and the total factor productivity growth rate shows that the total factor productivity is closely related to the economic growth rate and is an important index to promote the sustainable development of the economy. In addition, the contribution of total factor productivity to economic growth is compared with that of other factors. It is found that the main driving force of Guizhou's current economic growth is the growth of total factor productivity.
【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F127;F224

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