中国与主要贸易伙伴经济周期协动性的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-08-01 13:24

【摘要】：随着经济全球化的日益深化,世界经济通过贸易、投资、产业等渠道密切联系。一国经济周期波动通过这些渠道对他国经济周期波动产生影响,出现了世界经济周期的协动性。本文通过研究经过H-P滤波剔除趋势项后的中国与主要贸易伙伴的实际GDP波动项变化及建立VAR模型两个角度发现,随着时间的推移,中国与其主要贸易伙伴经济周期协动性呈现逐渐增强的趋势。有多种因素影响中国经济周期协动性,本文通过选取与中国贸易联系较为紧密的22个国家(地区),构建GMM面板数据回归模型,分别研究了双边贸易强度、双边产业内贸易强度、双边直接投资强度和产业结构相似度4个因素对经济周期协动性的影响。研究表明,在1992-2011年间,双边贸易强度、双边产业内贸易强度与产业结构相似度与经济周期协动性都是正相关的。值得注意的是,双边直接投资强度与中国及主要贸易伙伴经济周期协动性是负相关关系,这可能是来源于发达国家(地区)贸易伙伴的直接投资起到的贸易替代作用和投资方向主要集中于中国国内的劳动密集型产业所致。从政策含义上看,首先需要进一步强化中国与主要贸易伙伴国家(地区)的经济和贸易合作,这对更有效地推动两国的双边经济增长起着非常重要的作用；其次,应当采取适当的政策引导中国的企业提高在世界经济产业内贸易的影响力,促使一部分企业在垂直专业化分工体系中占据主导的地位；再次,积极吸收与中国贸易往来较为频繁的发达国家(地区)的技术含量较高的外商直接投资,加以引导,有利于促进中国经济的增长以及经济发展的转型；最后,加快中国产业结构转型升级,对中国更好地发挥在国际经济周期波动中的主动权是比较有利的。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of economic globalization, the world economy is closely linked through trade, investment, industry and other channels. Through these channels, the economic cycle fluctuation of one country has an impact on the economic cycle fluctuation of other countries, which leads to the cooperativeness of the world economic cycle. In this paper, it is found that with the passage of time, the change of actual GDP fluctuation of China and its main trading partners and the establishment of VAR model after H-P filter excluding trend terms are studied. China and its main trading partners show a growing trend of business cycle synergy. There are many factors that influence China's economic cycle coordination. This paper studies the intensity of bilateral trade and the intensity of bilateral intra-industry trade by selecting 22 countries (regions) with close trade ties with China and constructing a regression model of GMM panel data. The influence of the intensity of bilateral direct investment and the similarity of industrial structure on the coactivity of business cycle. The results show that from 1992 to 2011, bilateral trade intensity, intra-industry trade intensity and industrial structure similarity are positively correlated with the economic cycle. It is worth noting that there is a negative correlation between the intensity of bilateral direct investment and the cooperativity of economic cycles between China and its major trading partners. This may be due to the substitution of trade and the direction of investment mainly concentrated in labor-intensive industries in China from the direct investment of developed countries (regions) trading partners. From the policy point of view, first of all, there is a need to further strengthen China's economic and trade cooperation with major trading partner countries (regions), which plays a very important role in promoting more effectively bilateral economic growth between the two countries. Appropriate policies should be adopted to guide Chinese enterprises to increase their influence on intra-industry trade in the world economy, and to promote some enterprises to occupy a dominant position in the vertical specialization system. To actively absorb foreign direct investment (FDI) with relatively high technological content from developed countries (regions) that have more frequent trade with China, and to guide it, which is conducive to promoting the growth of China's economy and the transformation of its economic development; finally, Speeding up the transformation and upgrading of China's industrial structure is beneficial for China to exert its initiative in the international economic cycle.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F752.7;F124.8

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