我国政府投资与产业结构合理化研究
发布时间：2018-08-01 17:05
【摘要】：产业结构调整与优化关系到经济的可持续发展，关系到我国能否顺利跨越“中等收入陷阱”，目前已经成为我国经济生活中的一个热点问题。由于长期以来我国实行的是“政府主导的市场经济经济”发展模式，政府投资巨大，势必对产业结构的合理化产生影响。政府投资有没有在产业结构合理化进程中起到积极作用，不仅关系到政府投资的转型，更关系到我国产业结构调整与优化的路径，因此研究政府投资与产业结构合理化的关系具有重要的理论与实际意义。 为此，本文通过广泛搜集、整理和研究相关文献，先从理论角度来探讨我国政府投资与产业结构合理化之间的关系,阐述政府投资对我国产业结构合理化的正面和负面影响。然后以1985-2011年中国统计年鉴和新中国60年统计资料汇编中的经济发展数据为依据，，以产业结构合理化的资源配置论作为计量模型的基础，运用偏离系数法模型、协整以及格兰杰因果检验等计量工具，从实证的角度进一步分析政府投资与产业结构合理化之间的关系。 结论表明:两者之间虽然存在长期稳定的关系，但却不存在格兰杰因果关系，即两者几乎相互独立，政府投资对产业结构合理化的积极作用很小。在此基础上，本文提出应适当控制政府投资总量、改革政府官员的政绩考核机制、确定合理的政府投资结构、规范政治权力运行等政策建议。
[Abstract]:The adjustment and optimization of industrial structure is related to the sustainable development of economy and whether our country can successfully cross the "middle income trap", which has become a hot issue in the economic life of our country at present. For a long time, the development mode of "government-led market economy" has been practiced in our country for a long time, and the government investment is huge, which is bound to have an impact on the rationalization of industrial structure. Whether government investment plays a positive role in the process of rationalization of industrial structure is not only related to the transformation of government investment, but also related to the path of adjustment and optimization of industrial structure in China. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship between government investment and industrial structure rationalization. Therefore, by collecting, sorting out and studying relevant documents, this paper discusses the relationship between government investment and the rationalization of industrial structure from the theoretical point of view, and expounds the positive and negative effects of government investment on the rationalization of industrial structure in China. Then, based on the economic development data of China Statistical Yearbook 1985-2011 and the compilation of 60 years' statistics of New China, and taking the resource allocation theory of industrial structure rationalization as the basis of the measurement model, the deviation coefficient method model is used. Cointegration and Granger causality test are used to analyze the relationship between government investment and industrial structure rationalization. The conclusion shows that although there is a long-term stable relationship between the two, there is no Granger causality, that is, they are almost independent of each other, and the positive effect of government investment on the rationalization of industrial structure is very small. On this basis, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as controlling the total amount of government investment, reforming the performance assessment mechanism of government officials, determining the reasonable structure of government investment and standardizing the operation of political power.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F121.3;F812.45
本文编号：2158250
[Abstract]:The adjustment and optimization of industrial structure is related to the sustainable development of economy and whether our country can successfully cross the "middle income trap", which has become a hot issue in the economic life of our country at present. For a long time, the development mode of "government-led market economy" has been practiced in our country for a long time, and the government investment is huge, which is bound to have an impact on the rationalization of industrial structure. Whether government investment plays a positive role in the process of rationalization of industrial structure is not only related to the transformation of government investment, but also related to the path of adjustment and optimization of industrial structure in China. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship between government investment and industrial structure rationalization. Therefore, by collecting, sorting out and studying relevant documents, this paper discusses the relationship between government investment and the rationalization of industrial structure from the theoretical point of view, and expounds the positive and negative effects of government investment on the rationalization of industrial structure in China. Then, based on the economic development data of China Statistical Yearbook 1985-2011 and the compilation of 60 years' statistics of New China, and taking the resource allocation theory of industrial structure rationalization as the basis of the measurement model, the deviation coefficient method model is used. Cointegration and Granger causality test are used to analyze the relationship between government investment and industrial structure rationalization. The conclusion shows that although there is a long-term stable relationship between the two, there is no Granger causality, that is, they are almost independent of each other, and the positive effect of government investment on the rationalization of industrial structure is very small. On this basis, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as controlling the total amount of government investment, reforming the performance assessment mechanism of government officials, determining the reasonable structure of government investment and standardizing the operation of political power.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F121.3;F812.45
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