产业结构与经济增长——基于中等收入国家的视角

发布时间：2018-09-06 17:55

【摘要】：在一个国家从中等收入阶段迈入高收入阶段的过程中,工业的快速增长是中低收入阶段经济增长的主要动力,而服务业快速增长是中高收入阶段经济增长的主要动力。从不同收入水平产业结构演变的比较来看,低、中低、中高、高收入国家的产业结构演变虽存在明显差别,但产业结构的演变方向大体上还是较为符合库兹涅茨和克拉克的产业结构变化规律的。从成功跨越和一直停留在中等收入阶段国家产业结构演变过程的比较来看,成功跨越中等收入阶段的国家工业和服务业发展比较均衡,对经济增长的贡献度比较大,但服务业更大,而一直处于中等收入阶段的国家工业和服务业对经济增长的贡献都比较小,且服务业更小。一个国家从中等收入阶段迈入高收入阶段的过程中,工业增长是前提条件,决定一个国家是否做好了跨越中等收入阶段的准备。而服务业增长是必要条件,在中等收入进入高收入的过程中对经济的拉动作用更大,决定了一个国家能否顺利地跨越中等收入阶段。
[Abstract]:In the process of a country moving from the middle income stage to the high income stage, the rapid growth of industry is the main driving force of the economic growth in the middle and low income stage, while the rapid growth of the service industry is the main power of the economic growth in the middle and high income stage. From the comparison of the evolution of industrial structure at different income levels, although there are obvious differences in the evolution of industrial structure in low, middle and high income countries, However, the evolution direction of industrial structure is in accordance with Kuznets and Clark's law of industrial structure. From the comparison of the evolution process of industrial structure in countries that have successfully crossed and stayed at the middle income stage, the development of national industry and service industry, which has successfully crossed the middle income stage, has been relatively balanced, and has contributed a great deal to economic growth. But the services sector is bigger, and both industry and services, which have been in the middle income stage, contribute less to economic growth and services to a smaller extent. Industrial growth is a prerequisite for a country to move from the middle income stage to the high income stage, which determines whether a country is ready to cross the middle income stage. The growth of service industry is a necessary condition, and it plays a more important role in the process of middle income entering into high income, which determines whether a country can smoothly cross the middle income stage.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济发展研究中心;武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“后金融危机时期我国经济发展方式研究”(10JZD0016) 2016年武汉大学自主研究项目“中等收入阶段经济发展问题研究”
【分类号】：F113

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