“特朗普经济学”框架下的美国宏观经济政策分析
发布时间：2018-11-03 19:52
【摘要】：根据当前的经济数据判断,美国经济预计在未来两年内仍将保持弱势复苏的态势,与"特朗普经济学"所预期的实现GDP每年增长3%的目标存在一定差距。"特朗普经济学"框架下的宏观经济政策将围绕贸易保护、税收改革、加强基础设施建设和放松金融监管四个核心展开。本文分析了特朗普政府的贸易政策、财政政策、金融监管改革政策以及美联储的货币政策,认为特朗普政府的贸易政策在短期内可能有利于净出口的增长,但从长期看,这是逆全球化的焚林竭泽之举;受制于财政赤字和债务上限,减税和增加基础设施建设投资对拉动经济增长的效果存在不确定性;放松监管有益于通过释放金融活力促进经济增长,但也可能诱发系统性的金融风险。货币政策相对独立,加息与缩表将以渐进、缓慢的方式进行。
[Abstract]:Judging by current economic data, the U.S. economy is expected to maintain a weak recovery for the next two years, a gap from the Trump-Economics target of 3 percent GDP growth per year. Macroeconomic policy under the Trump Economics framework will focus on four core areas: trade protection, tax reform, infrastructure strengthening and financial deregulation. This article analyzes the Trump administration's trade policy, fiscal policy, financial regulatory reform policy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. It concludes that the Trump administration's trade policy may be conducive to net export growth in the short term, but in the long run, This is an act of incineration against globalization; Restricted by the fiscal deficit and debt ceiling, there is uncertainty about the effect of tax reduction and increasing investment in infrastructure construction on the effect of stimulating economic growth; Deregulation helps boost economic growth by unleashing financial activity, but it can also trigger systemic financial risk. Monetary policy is relatively independent and interest rate rises and contraction will be gradual and slow.
【作者单位】： 上海外国语大学;上海外国语大学国际金融贸易学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“非同步经济周期下宏观经济政策的国际协调研究”(13BGJ037)和“G20宏观经济政策国际协调的功能与中国角色研究”(15CGJ023)的阶段性成果 上海市教育委员会和上海市教育发展基金会“晨光计划”(13CG31) 上海外国语大学青年英才海外研修计划的资助
【分类号】：F171.2
，
本文编号：2308833
[Abstract]:Judging by current economic data, the U.S. economy is expected to maintain a weak recovery for the next two years, a gap from the Trump-Economics target of 3 percent GDP growth per year. Macroeconomic policy under the Trump Economics framework will focus on four core areas: trade protection, tax reform, infrastructure strengthening and financial deregulation. This article analyzes the Trump administration's trade policy, fiscal policy, financial regulatory reform policy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. It concludes that the Trump administration's trade policy may be conducive to net export growth in the short term, but in the long run, This is an act of incineration against globalization; Restricted by the fiscal deficit and debt ceiling, there is uncertainty about the effect of tax reduction and increasing investment in infrastructure construction on the effect of stimulating economic growth; Deregulation helps boost economic growth by unleashing financial activity, but it can also trigger systemic financial risk. Monetary policy is relatively independent and interest rate rises and contraction will be gradual and slow.
【作者单位】： 上海外国语大学;上海外国语大学国际金融贸易学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“非同步经济周期下宏观经济政策的国际协调研究”(13BGJ037)和“G20宏观经济政策国际协调的功能与中国角色研究”(15CGJ023)的阶段性成果 上海市教育委员会和上海市教育发展基金会“晨光计划”(13CG31) 上海外国语大学青年英才海外研修计划的资助
【分类号】：F171.2
，
本文编号：2308833
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