人力资本与安徽省经济发展的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-09 04:50

本文选题：人力资本 + 经济发展　；参考：《安徽大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：安徽省位于华东腹地,蕴藏着丰富的科教资源,包括多种形式的高等院校接近上百所,针对不同领域研究的科研机构两百余个,不同职责的科技人员超过三十万,如此巨大的高质量的人力资源,如何更好地来带动高质量的经济发展值得研究,本文运用Eviews计量软件采用自然对数变量协整回归方法,对生产函数结合卢卡斯的人力资本外溢模型进行变型,主要分析人力资本在安徽省经济发展中的作用以及当地政府该采取的人才战略,主要构建三个经济增长模型,鉴于面板数据在时间阶段中存在序列相关性,文章分别针对人力资本要素和物质资本要素以及以国内生产总值GDP代替的经济增长进行单位根检验,得出单个要素均是自然对数的一阶差分单位根平稳,而模型三满足自协整,因此文中主要以模型三为经济增长模型；此外基于索洛剩余理论构建经济增长速度公式,将人力资本外溢纳入到分析的框架之内并划分直接与间接人力资本,分析各要素从改革开放1978年到1989年、1990年到2001年以及2002年到2012年三个不同的子时段中安徽省直接人力资本、间接人力资本、技术进步以及十分重要的物质资本四个要素对经济增长速度的贡献率比重,据此得出我国安徽省1978年到2012年间城市经济提高情况并进行实证分析；最后针对人力资本与经济发展之间的关系进行格兰杰因果关系分析,得出长期内,1%的显著性水平内人力资本是经济发展的格兰杰原因,但是经济发展是人力资本的格兰杰原因不成立。分析回归得到的结论主要有：第一,安徽省经济产出可以被分解为主要的五大来源,即技术进步、劳动力、物质资本要素投入和人力资本积累以及人力资本外溢；第二,在安徽省经济发展模型中,已得出单个要素一阶差分平整,人力资本外溢模型则可以自协整。由此得出各关键变量的边际率,计算出经济增长速度公式,分解得出人力资本直接贡献,人力资本间接贡献,物质资本贡献各自的核算公式,总的人力资本对地方政府的产出的边际效率大于劳动和物质资本的边际效率,但长期以来地方政府对于人才政策的实施并不够,人力资本对于经济增长实际贡献率还需开拓；第三,在分析时期内,三个子时段各变量的长期变化走势较为一致,倒U型显著即经历增长—衰退—再复苏,其各自发生变化的源泉在其中发挥的作用也是迥异的,这点值得再探究。安徽省产出增长率的首要源泉来自全要素生产率的变化,一方面全要素生产率的增长主要源于技术进步的作用,人力资本质量提升将有助于技术进步提升,同时物质资本也占大部分比重例如2001年之后,安徽省经济增长变得越来越倚重于物质要素投入的增加,但是人力资本增长贡献率保持平稳,人均人力资本作用隐蔽。最后从《中国人力资本报告2013》中总结安徽省从1985-2010年间按照性别和城乡划分的实际人均人力资本,可知不同性别之间和不同地域之间人力资本的巨大差距,以当地政府政策为着眼点,具体针对人力资源整体构造不合理、总的存量不充足、政府在社会实践中的政策控制不足等诸多问题为导向,对安徽省整体环境采用宏观pest分析,总结分析出安徽省正在政治、经济、技术、社会环境努力做改善,扩大产业园区、发展战略新兴产业并据此提出人力资本发展的实际举措。
[Abstract]:Anhui province is located in the hinterland of East China, which contains abundant science and education resources, including more than 100 institutions of higher learning in various forms, more than 200 research institutes in different fields, more than three hundred thousand of scientific and technical personnel with different responsibilities, so huge and high quality human resources, how to better promote the development of high quality economy. In this paper, this paper uses the Eviews measurement software to adopt the cointegration regression method of natural logarithm variable, and changes the production function combined with Lucas's human capital spillover model. It mainly analyzes the role of human capital in the economic development of Anhui province and the strategy of the local government. It mainly constructs three economic growth models. There is sequence correlation in the time stage of board data. In this paper, according to the unit root test of the human capital and material capital elements and the economic growth replaced by GDP, the first order difference unit root of the natural logarithm is stable, and the model three satisfies self cointegration, so the main model is model. Type three is a model of economic growth. In addition, based on Solow surplus theory, the formula of economic growth speed is constructed, and the spillover of human capital is included in the framework of analysis and the direct and indirect human capital is divided. From 1978 to 1989 of reform and opening, from 1990 to 2001, and from 2002 to 2012, three different sub periods in sub period are analyzed. The direct human capital, the indirect human capital, the technological progress and the very important material capital contribution ratio of four factors to the speed of economic growth, the urban economic improvement of Anhui province in China from 1978 to 2012 is obtained and the empirical analysis is carried out. Finally, the relationship between human capital and economic development is carried out. Lan Jie causality analysis shows that in the long term, human capital is the Grainger cause of economic development in 1% significant level, but the economic development is the Grainger reason of human capital. The main conclusions are as follows: first, the economic output of Anhui province can be decomposed into five major sources, that is, technological progress, labor. Power, material capital input and human capital accumulation and human capital spillover. Second, in the economic development model of Anhui Province, the first order differential leveling of individual elements has been obtained, and the model of human capital spillover can be self cointegration. Thus the marginal rate of key variables is obtained, the formula of economic growth speed is calculated, and human capital is decomposed. The direct contribution, the indirect contribution of human capital, the contribution of the material capital to the respective calculation formula, the marginal efficiency of the total human capital to the local government's output is greater than the marginal efficiency of the labor and the material capital, but the implementation of the local government for the talent policy is not enough for a long time, and the actual contribution rate of human capital to the economic growth needs to be opened. Third, third, in the period of analysis, the trend of the long-term changes of each variable in the three sub periods is more consistent. The inverted U is significant, that is, the experience of growth recession and resuscitation, and the source of the change is also different. This is worth exploring again. The primary source of the growth rate in Anhui is from the total factor productivity. On the one hand, the growth of total factor productivity is mainly due to the role of technological progress, and the improvement of human capital quality will help to improve the technological progress. At the same time, the substantial proportion of material capital, for example, in 2001, the economic growth of Anhui province is becoming more and more dependent on the increase of material demand, but the contribution rate of human capital growth is more and more important. In the end, the human capital of Anhui province was summed up from the human capital report 2013> of China. The huge gap between the human capital between different sexes and different regions was known, and the local government policy was the eye point, and the human capital was specific to the human resources. The overall structure of the resources is unreasonable, the total stock is not sufficient, the government has many problems in the social practice, such as the lack of policy control. The macro PEST analysis is adopted to the overall environment of Anhui Province, and it is concluded and analyzed that Anhui is making efforts to improve the political, economic, technical and social environment of the province, expand the industrial park, and develop the strategic emerging industries. Put forward the practical measures for the development of human capital.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F249.27;F127

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