陕西省产业结构调整对碳排放的影响研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 02:06

本文关键词：陕西省产业结构调整对碳排放的影响研究　出处：《西安科技大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近十多年来，全球气候变暖问题已被国际社会列为全球十大环境问题之首，人类活动排放的温室气体中对气候变化影响最大的是二氧化碳。2010年8月，国家将陕西确定为低碳试点省，低碳发展正式成为陕西省未来经济转型的方向。本文在大量研读国内外相关文献的基础上，采用系统仿真法、回归分析法，以三次产业增加值、全社会固定资产投资额以及能源消费碳排放量等为状态变量构建了陕西省产业结构低碳化调整的系统动力学模型，并且对陕西省未来八年的生产总值、三次产业增加值、能源消费总量、二氧化碳排放量等主要变量进行了仿真预测；进一步研究了如何调整陕西省三次产业增加值占国内生产总值比重，以及产业结构调整对陕西省生产总值、能源消费碳排放、二氧化碳排放量等的影响，并据此提出了一些政策建议。文章主要结论如下：（1）根据陕西省产业结构低碳化调整模型预测结果，未来八年内，陕西省第二产业比重逐步将上升，第三产业比重不断下降。如果不采取一定的措施，将无法完成《陕西省低碳试点工作实施方案》中确立的低碳发展目标。（2）未来八年内，陕西省只要保证原有固定资产投资、科技投入力度不变，在零减排的情况下即可完成《陕西省低碳试点工作实施方案》中关于单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放量的要求。但是空气中的二氧化碳累积量却逐年上升，如果不采取任何新的政策或技术措施，陕西省的气候环境将会进一步恶化。（3）若将第三产业固定资产投资额增加20%，则可实现到2015年第三产业比重达到42%，，2020年第三产业比重达到45%。且降低第二产业比重，提高第三产业比重能够有效降低能源消费碳排放量和二氧化碳排放量，达到节能减排的目的。
[Abstract]:In recent ten years, global warming has been listed as the top ten environmental problems by the international community, and carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. August 2010. The state has designated Shaanxi as a low carbon pilot province, and the development of low carbon has become the direction of future economic transformation of Shaanxi Province. Based on a large number of domestic and foreign literature, this paper uses the method of system simulation and regression analysis to increase the value of three industries. The whole society fixed asset investment and energy consumption carbon emissions as state variables to build the industrial structure of Shaanxi Province low-carbon adjustment of the system dynamics model, and the next eight years of Shaanxi Province's gross domestic product. The third industry added value, total energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and other main variables were simulated and forecasted. Further study on how to adjust the ratio of three industrial added value to GDP, and the impact of industrial structure adjustment on Shaanxi's GDP, energy consumption carbon emissions, carbon dioxide emissions and so on. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) according to the forecast result of the low carbonization adjustment model of Shaanxi industrial structure, the proportion of the secondary industry in Shaanxi Province will gradually increase in the next eight years, and the proportion of the tertiary industry will continue to decrease. If certain measures are not taken. It will not be able to complete the low carbon development goal established in the "low carbon pilot Project of Shaanxi Province". 2) in the next eight years, Shaanxi Province will not change its investment in science and technology as long as the original fixed assets investment is guaranteed. In the case of zero emission reduction, we can complete the requirements of carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP in the "low carbon pilot Project of Shaanxi Province", but the cumulative amount of carbon dioxide in the air is increasing year by year. Without any new policies or technical measures, the climate in Shaanxi will deteriorate further. If the investment in fixed assets of tertiary industry is increased by 20%, the proportion of tertiary industry can reach 42% by 2015. In 2020, the proportion of tertiary industry reached 455.And reducing the proportion of secondary industry and increasing the proportion of tertiary industry can effectively reduce the carbon and carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption and achieve the purpose of energy saving and emission reduction.
【学位授予单位】：西安科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F205

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