制度变迁对中国经济增长影响的实证研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 02:29

本文关键词：制度变迁对中国经济增长影响的实证研究　出处：《西南交通大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：制度变迁在一国的经济增长过程中究竟扮演着什么样的角色?各种制度变迁对经济增长是一种怎样的影响?制度变迁的度量及依据又是什么?……种种诸如此类的问题,始终是当今学术界争论的焦点。而作为发展中国家及转型国家的代表,建国以来的中国在经历改革开放与体制转型的过程中,经济增长也在同期取得了举世瞩目的成就。这更是让中国成为探讨制度变迁对经济增长影响这一研究领域的典型范例。然而已有研究成果中,学者们普遍倾向认为经济制度变迁对中国经济的增长有着明显的助推作用,对法律制度变迁及政治制度变迁层面上的关注则略显薄弱。此外,已有研究关于制度变迁影响中国经济增长的传导机制和作用机制也没有系统地剖析。这种做法显然缺乏对制度变迁影响中国经济增长效果的全方位把握。本文以此为切入点,就各种类型的制度变迁(经济制度变迁、法律制度变迁和政治制度变迁即行政体制变迁)对中国经济增长的影响进行了理论探讨和计量分析。论文的主要内容及逻辑结构为：首先,以现代经济增长理论和新制度经济学理论为基础,采用文献述评的方式系统回顾了国内外有关制度变迁影响经济增长的现有成果,分析总结了已有研究的不足及进一步探索的空间,指出经济制度变迁、法律制度变迁和政治制度(行政体制)变迁是影响中国经济增长的主要制度变迁类型；其次,将制度变迁因素融入到已有的经济增长模型,从制度内生和外生两个角度对理论模型进行了扩展和推导,证明了制度变迁的确对一国的经济增长具有重要的影响；再次,结合North的国家理论及中国的实际情况,构建了制度变迁影响中国经济增长的引导机制,并在已有研究的基础上总结归纳了经济制度变迁、法律制度变迁及行政体制变迁各自影响中国经济增长的作用机制；最后,本着数据可得性、指标选取的准确性及合理性等原则,以中国的时间序列数据为依据,构建了度量各种制度变迁的指标体系,通过单位根检验、协整分析、向量误差修正模型及格兰杰因果检验等计量方法,实证检验了各种制度变迁对中国经济增长的影响大小,并给出相应的结论及建议。研究构建的“国家意愿”导向下制度变迁影响中国经济增长的理论框架,并将法律制度变迁和政治制度(行政体制)变迁囊括其中,这在一定程度上拓宽了现有研究的范围,是对已有理论框架的进一步完善；通过考察经济制度变迁、法律制度变迁和行政体制变迁各自对中国经济增长的影响,使得研究的问题更加全面；使用更为科学合理的实证手段,避免了最小二乘回归计量方法可能出现的伪回归等问题,从而使实证结果更加可信,提出的政策建议也更有针对性和可行性。
[Abstract]:Institutional change plays what role in whether a country's economic growth in the process of institutional change? What is the impact on economic growth? What is the measure and basis of institutional change and so on.? various problems, always is the focal point of debate in the academic community. As a representative of developing countries and countries in transition since the founding of the China, after the reform and opening up and transition in the process of economic growth has also made remarkable achievements in the same period. This is to let Chinese become into this research field of the typical impact of institutional changes on economic growth. However, the existing research results, scholars generally believe that there is a tendency to boost obviously the growth of economic institutional changes on economic Chinese, attention to the change of legal system and political system changes on the level of it is relatively weak. In addition, the existing research on the system There is also no systematic analysis of the transmission mechanism and mechanism of the impact of degree change on China's economic growth. This practice is obviously lacking in a comprehensive grasp of the effect of institutional change on China's economic growth.
This article as a starting point, on the institutional change of various types (the changes of economic system, legal system changes and changes in the political system is the administrative system changes) impact on economic growth Chinese discusses the theory and econometric analysis. The main contents of this thesis and logic structure is as follows: firstly, based on the modern economic growth theory and new institutional economics theory based on the literature review of the system reviews the existing achievements about the system of domestic and foreign changes affect economic growth, analyzes and summarizes the existing research and further exploration of space, pointed out that the economic system changes, the change of legal system and political system (administrative system changes) is the main effect system China economic growth change type; secondly, the institutional factors into the model of economic growth has been, for extension of the theoretical model from two aspects of internal and external system And is proved that institutional change is indeed on a country's economic growth has an important influence; again, combined with North's theory of the state and the actual situation of the construction of the China, China guiding mechanism of institutional changes affect economic growth, and on the basis of the previous research summarized the economic system change, the change of legal system and administrative system change their effects China economic growth; finally, based on the availability of data, index selection accuracy and rationality principle, time series data of the Chinese as the basis, build an index system to measure all kinds of institutional change, through the unit root test, cointegration analysis, vector error correction model and measurement method of Grainger causality test, the empirical test of the impact of institutional changes on various China economic growth, and gives the corresponding conclusions and recommendations.
Study on the construction of the "national will" under the guidance of institutional change influence China economic growth theory framework, and the evolution of legal system and political system (administrative system) changes included, which broadens the scope of the existing research to a certain extent, is to further improve the existing theoretical framework; through the investigation of economic system change, legal system the changes and their impact on administrative system changes China economic growth, making the problem more comprehensive; the use of more scientific and reasonable empirical means, to avoid the least squares regression methods may appear pseudo regression problems, so as to make the empirical results more credible, policy recommendations are more targeted and feasible.

【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：D621;F124.1

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