论对中国投资消费结构的误判及对其的修正

发布时间：2018-03-25 06:08

本文选题：投资　切入点：消费　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来“中国奇迹”使中国成为世界瞩目的焦点,大家开始密切关注中国的经济增长问题,其中最流行的说法是投资、消费与出口的“三驾马车”理论,而投资与消费作为衡量中国内部经济发展的主要指标,更是受到广泛的关注。目前大家普遍认为中国的投资消费结构严重失衡,经济存在“投资过热、内需不足”的问题。本文从统计数据、经济增长理论与计量实证三个角度分析了这一说法,发现人们对中国的投资消费结构问题存在一些误判,本文重点对这些误判进行了修正,并探讨了解决结构失衡问题的主要途径。第一个误判是认为中国消费率过低、投资率过高。本文对历年《中国统计年鉴》公布的消费率与投资率以及相关数据进行了分析,通过对1995-2011年官方统计数据的修正,本文发现目前的统计对最终消费支出严重低估了,而资本形成总额有所高估,从而导致消费率被低估、投资率被高估,形成了人们对中国投资消费结构失衡问题的错误认识。本文通过修正发现,中国的消费率和投资率实际上都在合理的测算范围内波动,两者的差距缩小的进程也比较缓慢。修正后消费对经济增长的贡献率始终高于投资,可见中国的国内消费并没有大家想象的那么疲软,而投资过热也是一个流行的错误。第二个误判是消费比投资对经济增长的作用更重要。本文引用拉姆齐模型研究了消费和投资在经济增长理论中的作用。通过对居民消费和企业生产的最优行为选择进行分析,本文发现对于短期的经济增长而言,即期消费的增加会降低经济增长、资本和消费的稳态水平,加快经济向稳态水平的收敛速度,因此消费的推动作用比投资更大。相对而言,资本积累在短期并不能马上得到回报,对经济增长的推动作用有限。但是在长期发展中,由储蓄转化而成的投资对其他生产要素具有很强的外部正效应。人们强调刺激内需的说法局限于短期的经济增长角度,要保证经济长久持续的增长,就不能忽视投资的重要性。第三个误判是认为投资与消费是拉动中国经济的重要“马车”。本文利用时间序列相关数据,采用普通最小二乘法、ADF单位根检验、VAR模型、脉冲响应函数分析、方差分解分析和格兰杰因果关系检验等方法对投资、消费和经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究,发现投资与消费并不会必然拉动经济的增长,它们更多的是经济增长的结果而非原因。计量结果同时告诉我们投资与消费之间存在强烈的挤出效应,这阻碍了两者对经济增长的传导作用。因此优化投资与消费的结构、建立两者良性的传导机制,是解决中国投资消费结构失衡问题的根本途径。最后一个误判是政府应该重点降低投资率、提高消费率。本文统计修正和计量实证的结果告诉我们,要解决中国投资消费结构的问题,最重要的不是改变两者占GDP的绝对比率,而是优化投资与消费各自的结构,推动产业结构优化升级,从而建立两者之间的良性传导机制,使两者能对促进中国经济持续、健康、快速的增长发挥更大的作用。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the "Chinese miracle" that China become the focus of world, people began to pay close attention to the problem of economic growth China, one of the most popular argument is the investment, consumption and export of "three carriages" theory, and the investment and consumption as the main measure of Chinese internal economic development, more attention. At present, it is generally believed that serious imbalance between investment and consumption structure China, "economic overheating investment, domestic demand shortage problem. Based on the statistical data, the three aspects of economic growth theory and empirical analysis of the said method, it is found that there exist some mistakes on the investment and consumption structure Chinese problem people, the correction of these miscarriage of justice, and discusses the main way to solve the structural imbalance problem.
The first is that China misjudged the low consumption rate, high investment rate. This paper analyzes the Chinese Statistical Yearbook published < > consumption rate and investment rate and related data, through modification of the official statistics of 1995-2011 years, it is found that the statistics of final consumption expenditure seriously underestimated, and the total capital formation somewhat overvalued, resulting in the consumption rate is undervalued, the investment rate is overvalued, the formation of the people of China unbalanced consumption structure investment mistake. By modifying, Chinese consumption rate and investment rate actually estimates fluctuations in the reasonable range, the process of narrowing the gap is relatively slow. The revised consumer the contribution rate of economic growth is always higher than that of the visible Chinese investment, domestic consumption and do not you think so weak, while the investment overheating is also a popular error.
The second is more important than the investment consumption misjudgment effect on economic growth. This paper quoted Ramsay model to study the consumption and investment in economic growth in the theory. Through the optimal behavior of the residents' consumption and production enterprises selected for analysis, this paper found that the short-term economic growth, increase immediate consumption will reduce economic growth, the steady-state level of capital and consumption, accelerate the convergence to the steady-state level of the economy, so the consumer role is greater than the investment. In contrast, the accumulation of capital in the short term does not immediately return to the role in promoting economic growth is limited. But in the long-term development, the savings into investment with the outside is very strong positive effect to other production factors. People focus on stimulating domestic demand that is limited to short-term economic growth point, to ensure lasting economic growth, is not It is important to ignore the importance of investment.
The third is that the misjudgment of investment and consumption is important to pull the wagon "China economy. This paper uses the time series data, the ordinary least squares ADF unit root test, VAR model, impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition analysis and Grainger causality test and other methods of investment, the relationship between consumption and economic growth in the the empirical study found that investment and consumption will not necessarily stimulate economic growth, they are the result of economic growth. The measurement results also tell us investment and consumption between the crowding out effect of strong, which hinders their conduction effect to economic growth. So the optimal investment and consumption structure, the establishment of the conduction mechanism of benign, is the fundamental way to solve the problem of investment China unbalanced consumption structure.
The last one is that the government should focus on reducing misclassification rate of investment, increase the consumption rate. The statistical correction and the empirical results tell us that in order to solve the problem of China investment and consumption structure, the most important thing is not to change the absolute ratio between GDP, but the optimal investment and consumption and their structure, promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in order to establish the benign conduction mechanism between the two, so that the two can promote the health of China economy, and play a greater role in rapid growth.

【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F126.1

【引证文献】