长三角地区产业结构优化与经济增长的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-01 15:25

本文选题：产业结构优化　切入点：产业结构合理化　出处：《上海社会科学院》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：2008年全球金融危机之后,美英等发达国家纷纷重启再工业化战略以塑造新型的产业结构。中国亦在谋求产业结构转变以改变自身纯粹制造者的角色。面对国际国内形势的变化,工业基础雄厚的长三角地区急需思考如何选择自身的未来产业发展之路。产业结构优化将成为其中一个重要考量。在此背景下,本文探讨长三角地区产业结构现状和演变过程,并且采用面板数据和时间序列数据分别对产业结构优化两个方面,即产业结构合理化和产业结构高度化与经济增长的关系展开实证研究。对比分析长三角地区16个核心城市和江浙沪三地的产业结构发展现状,结果显示,该地区增加值总量对于中国经济的影响力和第二、三、一次产业的产业结构顺序与其一贯基础雄厚的工业的密切关系；隶属于工业中的制造业是长三角地区创造就业最重要的产业,其中的优势产业主要为通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业,交通运输设备制造业,纺织业;除第三产业存在同构现象外,长三角的地域邻近性能够造就不同地区聚焦于不同优势产业,长三角地区每个城市均拥有主导制造产业,形成产业联系互动的积极效应；同时,作者还发现上海和江苏两地在合理配置资源优化产业结构方面,显示出较强的示范效应;最后,对长三角近年来的产业结构演变分析表明,改革开放以来,第二、三产业轮流助推经济增长,后者有取代前者成为主要动力的趋势,且整个经济的波动越来越与第三产业波动契合,较好的诠释了产业结构高度化与经济增长的协调发展。实证研究产业结构优化与经济增长的关系表明,长三角地区产业结构优化效果不显著,没有形成对经济增长的结构正效应。首先,产业结构合理化不足表现为产业间通过资本和劳动二要素流动没有实现协同效果。一方面,基于资本在三次产业的配置效应视角,第一、二、三产业均单独地对经济增长有显著的促进作用,但是三次产业问的相互作用,无协同结构效应,反而抑制经济的增长或是没有显现对于经济增长的效应。另一方面,基于劳动在三次产业的配置视角,只有第,‘产业促进经济增长,第二、三产业没有显著效果,同时,产业间的相互作用,亦无协同结构效应,或是表现抑制经济增长的效应或是没有显示产业互动对于经济增长的效应。其次,近20年长三角产业结构高度化保持稳定的向上趋势。虽然从长期看长三角产业结构高度化与经济增长具有协同均衡关系。但短期内经济增长的调整滞后于产业结构高度化的调整,且二者的短期弹性要远小于长期弹性,表明产业升升级对经济的助推效应,且短期效应弱于长期效应。
[Abstract]:After the global financial crisis in 2008, developed countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom have restarted their strategy of reindustrialization to shape a new industrial structure. China is also seeking to transform its industrial structure to change its role as a pure producer. In the face of changes in the international and domestic situation, The Yangtze River Delta, which has a strong industrial foundation, urgently needs to think about how to choose its own future industrial development path. Industrial structure optimization will become one of the important considerations. In this context, this paper discusses the present situation and evolution process of the industrial structure in the Yangtze River Delta region. Using panel data and time series data, the paper makes an empirical study on the two aspects of industrial structure optimization, namely, the rationalization of industrial structure and the relationship between industrial structure elevation and economic growth. The industrial structure of 16 core cities in the Yangtze River Delta region and Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Shanghai are compared and analyzed. The results show that the total added value of this region has great influence on China's economy and the second and third. The order of the industrial structure of the primary industry is closely related to its well-established industry; the manufacturing industry attached to the industry is the most important industry in the Yangtze River Delta region to create jobs, and the dominant industries are mainly communications equipment. Computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing, transportation equipment manufacturing, textile industry; apart from the existence of isomorphism in the tertiary industry, the proximity of the Yangtze River Delta can lead to different regions focusing on different superior industries. Each city in the Yangtze River Delta region has the positive effect of leading manufacturing industry, forming the positive effect of the interaction between industries, at the same time, the author also finds that Shanghai and Jiangsu have a strong demonstration effect in the rational allocation of resources to optimize the industrial structure. Finally, an analysis of the evolution of the industrial structure in the Yangtze River Delta in recent years shows that since the reform and opening up, the second and third industries have alternately boosted economic growth, and the latter has taken the place of the former as the main driving force. And the fluctuation of the whole economy is more and more consistent with the fluctuation of the tertiary industry, which better explains the harmonious development of the industrial structure and the economic growth. The empirical study on the relationship between industrial structure optimization and economic growth shows that the effect of industrial structure optimization in the Yangtze River Delta region is not significant, and it has not formed the structural positive effect on economic growth. The lack of rationalization of industrial structure shows that there is no synergistic effect between industries through the flow of capital and labor. On the one hand, based on the allocation effect of capital in three industries, the first, second, The three industries have a significant promoting effect on economic growth alone, but the interaction of the three industries has no synergistic structure effect, on the contrary, it inhibits the economic growth or does not show the effect on the economic growth. Based on the collocation of labor in three industries, only the first industry promotes economic growth, while the second and third industries have no significant effect. At the same time, there is no synergistic structure effect between industries. Either to show the effect of restraining economic growth or not to show the effect of industrial interaction on economic growth. Secondly, In the past 20 years, the industrial structure of the Yangtze River Delta has maintained a steady upward trend. Although there is a synergistic equilibrium relationship between the industrial structure elevation and economic growth in the long run, the adjustment of economic growth lags behind the industrial integration in the short term. The adjustment of construction and elevation, The short term elasticity of both is much smaller than that of long term, which indicates that the promotion effect of industrial upgrading is weaker than that of long term.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F279.2

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