转型时期消费主导型经济的实现途径分析

发布时间：2018-05-09 18:41

本文选题：消费主导型经济 + 消费拉动率　；参考：《山西财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：金融危机爆发以后，投资与出口主导型经济模式所带来的弊端已经逐步彰显出来，投资的过热、出口的萎缩使“在我国能否实行及如何实行消费主导型经济”这一问题又成为学者们关注的焦点。实现消费主导型经济，扩大消费需求,提高消费对经济的拉动作用，关键是提高居民消费需求。我们必须首先想方设法提高居民的可支配收入，同时也得考虑影响居民消费需求的其他因素。鉴于此，本文首先在总结前人研究的基础上，进一步梳理了消费主导型经济的定义，从主导部门经济理论、消费主导经济增长理论引入消费主导型经济的定义，然后根据相关消费理论去探寻影响消费需求的因素。其次对我国开放以来的经济模式变化情况进行了分析，并指出投资和出口主导型经济模式的不可持续性，同时论证了消费主导型经济在我国转型时期实行的可能性。再次本文对影响我国消费增长的主要因素进行了研究，对这些因素的现状逐一做出分析，指出居民可支配收入过低、基尼系数过大、社会保障发展速度过慢、投资率对消费率的挤占是阻碍我国实现消费主导型经济的主要原因。据此寻找出我国消费主导型经济模式的实现途径。然后基于1978年至2011年的时间序列数据，通过构建向量自回归模型，将消费主导型经济的关键变量即消费拉动率、收入、基尼系数、社会保障、投资等因素置于一个经济系统中，利用协整及脉冲响应函数，分析转型中的这些因素能否促进消费率的提高及其影响途径。最后指出我国消费主导型经济的具体实现途径。在前面分析的基础上文章主要得出以下结论：消费主导型经济主要是通过提高居民可支配收入、缩小居民之间收入差距、提高社会保障水平、降低投资率得到实现的，，其中居民收入的增加及收入分配格局的改善对消费率的提高作用最强。因此转变经济增长方式，实现消费主导型经济的关键是提高居民收入，缩小收入差距。
[Abstract]:Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the drawbacks brought about by the investment-oriented and export-led economic model have gradually become apparent, and the investment has overheated. The shrinking of export makes the question of whether and how to implement the consumption-oriented economy in our country become the focus of the scholars. The key to realize the consumption-oriented economy, expand the consumption demand and improve the pulling effect of the consumption on the economy is to improve the consumption demand of the residents. We must first find ways to improve the disposable income of the residents, but also take into account other factors affecting consumer demand. In view of this, this paper firstly summarizes the previous studies, further combs the definition of consumption-oriented economy, and introduces the definition of consumption-oriented economy from the theory of leading sector economy and the theory of consumption-led economic growth. Then according to the relevant consumption theory to explore the factors affecting consumption demand. Secondly, it analyzes the changes of economic model since China's opening up, and points out that the investment and export-oriented economic model is not sustainable, and demonstrates the possibility of the consumption-oriented economy in the transition period of our country. Thirdly, this paper studies the main factors that affect the growth of consumption in China, analyzes the present situation of these factors one by one, and points out that the disposable income of residents is too low, the Gini coefficient is too large, and the development of social security is too slow. The crowding of investment rate to consumption rate is the main reason that hinders the realization of consumption-oriented economy in China. Based on this, we find the way to realize the consumption-oriented economic model in our country. Then, based on the time series data from 1978 to 2011, the key variables of the consumption-led economy, such as consumption pull rate, income, Gini coefficient, social security, investment and so on, are put into an economic system by constructing a vector autoregressive model. By using cointegration and impulse response function, this paper analyzes whether these factors can promote the increase of consumption rate and its influence ways. Finally, the paper points out the specific ways to realize the consumption-oriented economy in China. On the basis of the previous analysis, the paper draws the following conclusions: the consumption-oriented economy is realized mainly by raising the disposable income of residents, narrowing the income gap among residents, raising the level of social security, and reducing the investment rate. Among them, the increase of residents' income and the improvement of income distribution pattern have the strongest effect on the increase of consumption rate. Therefore, the key to change the mode of economic growth and realize the consumption-oriented economy is to increase residents' income and narrow the income gap.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124;F224

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