基于Shapley值的云南省多维度贫困分解模型及实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-06 15:42

本文选题：多维度贫困 + 贫困分解　；参考：《云南财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：贫困问题是人类发展面临的首要问题，为国际社会和各国政府所普遍关注。为构建和谐社会、实现共同富裕，必须加快贫困地区的经济发展，促使贫困人口尽快脱贫致富。随着社会发展，经济增强，贫困也面临着不同的问题。自Sen（1976）提出多元贫困的概念以来，人们对贫困的认识逐步从只认为贫困就是单纯的低收入贫困过渡到认为贫困的内涵应该包括身体健康、正常寿命、情感、感知等方面。近年来，对贫困问题的研究更是进入一个更加细化、深化和广化的时期，特别是对贫困影响因素的探究成为众多国家政府、学术界持久和深远的议题，而多维贫困概念的提出为人们认识和考量贫困提供了崭新的视野。近年来，越来越多的学者逐渐从多个维度研究贫困问题，对多维贫困进行测度时面临的最根本、也最棘手的问题就是不同维度之间存在替代性与互补性的问题。鉴于此，大多数学者在研究贫困问题时，，都力求将贫困分解，从而辨别和量化各个影响因素对贫困变动的作用和效果。关于贫困的分解，不同的学者提出了不同的分解方法，最初是Kakwani and Subbarao (1990)及Jain andTendulkar (1990)提出的路径依赖型的分解（即非对称分解），Datt and Ravallion(1992)认为前两种分解方法不能处理贫困分解中产生的交叉项，从而引入残差。近年来，万广华、张茵（2006）将合作博弈理论中的Shapley方法引入贫困分解之中，实现了对贫困问题的完全分解。这也是本文贫困分解所使用的方法。本文选取1978-2012年云南省统计年鉴数据，重点对改革开放以来影响云南省的致贫因素进行分析，使用基于回归的Shapley分解方法，从资产、教育、健康、医疗机构条件四个维度进行回归和分解。分解结果表明，代表资产的农村人均住房面积对收入差距的影响最大，其次是代表健康的平均每户整半劳动力数量，代表教育的政府教育支出占财政支出的比重排在第三位，最后是代表医疗机构条件的农村卫生机构技术人员数。本文也给出了相应的对策建议：扶持当地经济发展项目及城镇化建设；劳动力相关技能培训；免除学杂费，率先在广大中、低收入地区实施12年义务教育；实施新型农村合作医疗，简称“新农合”，分层缴纳医疗保险，对于低收入者完全免除其最低费用。
[Abstract]:Poverty is the most important problem for human development, which is of great concern to the international community and governments. In order to build a harmonious society and realize common prosperity, it is necessary to speed up the economic development of poor areas and promote the poor population to get rid of poverty and become rich as soon as possible. With social development and economic growth, poverty is also facing different problems. Since the concept of multivariate poverty was put forward in 1976, people's understanding of poverty has gradually changed from thinking that poverty is simply low-income poverty to thinking that the connotation of poverty should include health, normal life expectancy, emotion, perception and so on. In recent years, the research on poverty has entered a more detailed, deepening and extensive period. In particular, the research on the factors affecting poverty has become a lasting and far-reaching topic for many governments, academics, and scholars. The concept of multidimensional poverty provides a new perspective for people to understand and consider poverty. In recent years, more and more scholars have gradually studied the problem of poverty from multiple dimensions, which is the most fundamental problem in the measurement of multidimensional poverty. The thorniest problem is the problem of substitution and complementarity between different dimensions. In view of this, most scholars try their best to decompose poverty in order to distinguish and quantify the effect and effect of various factors on the change of poverty. Regarding the decomposition of poverty, different scholars have proposed different decomposition methods. The path-dependent decomposition proposed by Kakwani and Subbarao 1990 and Jain and Tendulkar 1990 (i.e. asymmetric decomposition Datt and Ravallion 1992) suggests that the first two decomposition methods can not deal with the cross-terms generated in the poverty decomposition, thus introducing residual errors. In recent years, Wan Guanghua, Zhang Yinzhang (2006) introduced Shapley method of cooperative game theory into poverty decomposition, and realized the complete decomposition of poverty problem. This is also the method used in poverty decomposition in this paper. This paper selects the data of Yunnan Province Statistical Yearbook 1978-2012 to analyze the factors that have affected Yunnan Province since the reform and opening up, and uses the regression based Shapley decomposition method to analyze the causes of poverty in Yunnan Province from the perspective of assets and education. Four dimensions of health and medical conditions were regressed and decomposed. The results of decomposition show that the per capita housing area representing assets has the greatest impact on the income gap, followed by the average number of half and a half labor force per household representing health, and the proportion of government education expenditure on education in the third place in the financial expenditure. Finally, the number of technical personnel representing the conditions of medical institutions in rural health institutions. This article also gives the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions: supporting local economic development projects and urbanization construction; training related skills of labor force; waiving tuition fees; taking the lead in the implementation of 12 years compulsory education in the vast middle and low-income areas; The implementation of new rural cooperative medical system, referred to as "New Rural Cooperation", stratified payment of medical insurance, low income completely exempt from its minimum fee.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126;F224

【参考文献】