广东贸易结构变化及其对经济增长影响的实证分析

发布时间：2018-07-15 14:54

【摘要】：改革开放以来，伴随着广东对外贸易的迅猛发展，对外贸易结构也出现了种种变化。对外贸易结构是一国或地区在某一特定时期对外贸易质量的综合反映；贸易结构的变化将影响一国或地区对外贸易的持续稳定发展，以及对外贸易对经济增长促进作用的充分发挥。因此，本文结合国际贸易理论中有关贸易发展与经济增长关系的相关理论，运用实证分析，从贸易结构的一般变化及其内部构成变化两个角度重新审视改革开放以来广东外贸发展与其经济增长之间的关系。首先，本文采用描述性统计分析方法，分别对广东历年来经济增长情况、对外贸易发展规模以及对外贸易结构的动态变化进行探讨，，以求发现广东对外贸易发展的基本特征及存在的问题。其次，本文通过选取适当的变量指标，构建VAR模型，对广东对外贸易结构变化与经济增长之间的关系进行实证研究，并结合实际对实证结果进行分析。本文主要结论有：第一，通过建立的广东制成品、初级品进出口相对指标衡量贸易结构显示，二十世纪九十年代后，广东贸易结构处于不断升级过程中；第二，广东贸易结构变化与经济增长之间的格兰杰因果检验表明，目前拉动广东经济增长的不是贸易结构，而是贸易规模的不断扩大；第三，实证分析广东贸易结构内部构成对经济增长的影响发现，广东制成品产业内贸易的发展以及加工贸易增值率的提升，都促进了广东经济的发展。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of Guangdong ' s foreign trade since the reform and opening up , the foreign trade structure has changed . The foreign trade structure is a comprehensive reflection of the foreign trade quality of a country or region in a certain period ;
The change of trade structure will affect the sustained and steady development of foreign trade in one country or region , as well as the full play of the contribution of foreign trade to economic growth . Therefore , this paper analyzes the relationship between the development of foreign trade and its economic growth since the reform and opening up since the reform and opening up in terms of the general change of trade structure and its internal composition .

First , a descriptive statistical analysis method is used to discuss the economic growth , the scale of foreign trade and the dynamic change of foreign trade structure in Guangdong in recent years , in order to find out the basic characteristics and problems of Guangdong ' s foreign trade development .

Secondly , this paper studies the relationship between the change of foreign trade structure and economic growth of Guangdong by selecting the appropriate variable index , and makes an empirical study on the relationship between the change of foreign trade structure and economic growth in Guangdong .

The main conclusions of this paper are as follows : First , the trade structure is measured by the establishment of Guangdong manufactured goods and the relative indexes of import and export of primary products . After the 1990s , Guangdong trade structure is in the process of continuous upgrading ;
Secondly , the causality test between the change of Guangdong ' s trade structure and the economic growth shows that the current economic growth of Guangdong is not the trade structure , but the expansion of the trade scale .
Third , the empirical analysis of the impact of the structure of Guangdong ' s trade structure on the economic growth found that the development of the intra - industry trade in Guangdong and the promotion of the value - added rate of processing trade all promoted the development of Guangdong economy .
【学位授予单位】：广东商学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.8;F127

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