中国消费风险分担偏低之谜

发布时间：2018-09-06 10:29

【摘要】：居民部门福利水平,不仅决定于收入与消费的绝对水平,也取决于其波动水平即风险程度。通过金融市场和财政转移支付而实现的收入的交换流通,以降低本地消费与本地产出的相关性分担本地产出波动导致的居民消费的风险。本文计算了1985—2011年中国消费风险分担的趋势,发现中国省级消费风险分担水平偏低而且增加趋势不明显。进一步的研究结果表明,政府为了增加财政收入而采取的地方保护行为,严重抑制了财政转移支付和银行信贷市场在分担消费风险中的作用,直接造成了中国较低的消费风险分担水平。而金融业的国有化,则没有呈现出类似的影响。本文的结论对中国未来统筹区域经济发展和金融业市场化改革有重要的启示意义。
[Abstract]:The welfare level of resident department depends not only on the absolute level of income and consumption, but also on the level of fluctuation, that is, the degree of risk. In order to reduce the correlation between local consumption and local output, the exchange and circulation of income through financial market and fiscal transfer payment can reduce the risk of resident consumption caused by fluctuation of local output. This paper calculates the trend of consumption risk sharing in China from 1985 to 2011 and finds that the level of provincial consumption risk sharing is low and the increasing trend is not obvious. Further studies have shown that local conservation practices taken by governments to increase fiscal revenues severely inhibit the role of fiscal transfer payments and bank credit markets in sharing consumption risks. A direct result of China's lower consumption risk sharing level. The nationalisation of the financial sector did not show a similar effect. The conclusion of this paper is of great significance to the future development of regional economy and market-oriented reform of financial industry in China.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学财政金融学院、中国财政金融政策研究中心;香港中文大学经济系;
【基金】：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目成果,项目批准号:13XNJ003
【分类号】：F126.1

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