河南省低碳经济发展路径研究
发布时间：2018-09-06 12:54
【摘要】：自从人类进入工业经济时代以来,气候变暖、环境污染、能源危机等问题日渐凸显,威胁着人类生存和可持续发展,引起了世界各国的强烈关注,因此以节能减排为背景的低碳经济应运而生。我国正处于工业化和城市化加速发展的阶段,能源消费和温室气体排放增长迅速,引发了一系列的能源安全及气候问题,针对“引导和保障低碳经济发展、减少二氧化碳排放”的研究逐步深入。河南省作为我国的传统农业大省和新兴的工业大省,在全面建设中原经济区的环境下,节能减排工作亟需加强。因此,河南省发展低碳经济具有十分重要的理论及现实意义。 本文在分析低碳经济相关理论的基础上,从河南省及各地市的经济发展、能源消费及碳排放的现状出发,运用LMDI因素分解法研究了1995-2011年的河南省的低碳经济现状,指出了影响其发展的关键因素：产业结构、能耗强度、能源消费结构、人口增长等。同时依据系统动力学理论,建立了河南省低碳经济发展的系统动力学模型,包括四个子系统：碳排放子系统、经济发展子系统、能源消费子系统以及社会支撑子系统,以2000年为基准年,对此系统进行了仿真模拟。在验证了该模型有效之后,通过设计不同的情境进行分析,对2012-2020年的低碳经济发展进行了预测,依此来探索河南省实现低碳经济发展目标的可行之径。分析得出在保持现有的固定资产投资比例、试验及研究投入比重及能源消费结构不变的情况下,到2020年河南省碳减排的政策目标难以实现,只有通过优化产业结构升级、改善能源消费结构及提高试验及研究经费的比重的路径,才能实现河南省的低碳经济发展目标。 最后,结合河南省的实际提出了对策建议,首先应建立完善的政策、财政及技术保障机制,其次坚持走低碳型的工业、农业及城镇的“三化”协调发展之路,并形成全民参与低碳经济建设的格局,依此为基础来减少温室气体的排放,实现河南省的低碳经济发展目标。
[Abstract]:Since mankind entered the industrial economic age, the problems of climate warming, environmental pollution, energy crisis and so on have become increasingly prominent, threatening the survival and sustainable development of mankind, which has aroused the strong concern of all countries in the world. Therefore, the low-carbon economy with the background of energy saving and emission reduction emerged as the times require. China is in the stage of accelerating industrialization and urbanization. Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are increasing rapidly, which has caused a series of energy security and climate problems. The study of reducing carbon dioxide emissions has gradually deepened. Henan Province, as a traditional agricultural province and a new industrial province in China, needs to be strengthened in energy saving and emission reduction under the environment of building the Central Plains Economic Zone in an all-round way. Therefore, the development of low-carbon economy in Henan Province has very important theoretical and practical significance. Based on the analysis of the theory of low carbon economy and the current situation of economic development, energy consumption and carbon emission in Henan Province and other cities, the present situation of low carbon economy in Henan Province from 1995 to 2011 is studied by using LMDI factorization method. The key factors influencing its development are pointed out, such as industrial structure, energy consumption intensity, energy consumption structure, population growth and so on. At the same time, according to the theory of system dynamics, the system dynamics model of low carbon economy development in Henan Province is established, which includes four subsystems: carbon emission subsystem, economic development subsystem, energy consumption subsystem and social support subsystem. Based on the year 2000, the system is simulated. After validating the validity of the model, this paper forecasts the development of low-carbon economy in 2012-2020 by designing different scenarios, and explores the feasible way to realize the development goal of low-carbon economy in Henan Province. Under the condition that the proportion of fixed assets investment, the proportion of experiment and research input and the structure of energy consumption remain unchanged, it is difficult to achieve the policy goal of reducing carbon emissions by 2020 in Henan Province, only by optimizing the industrial structure to upgrade. Only by improving the energy consumption structure and increasing the proportion of experimental and research funds can we realize the development goal of low carbon economy in Henan Province. Finally, according to the actual situation in Henan Province, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions. Firstly, we should establish a perfect policy, financial and technical guarantee mechanism, and second, we should adhere to the road of coordinated development of low-carbon industry, agriculture and cities and towns. And form the pattern that the whole people participate in the construction of low carbon economy, according to which to reduce the greenhouse gas emission, realize the development goal of low carbon economy in Henan province.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F205
本文编号：2226412
[Abstract]:Since mankind entered the industrial economic age, the problems of climate warming, environmental pollution, energy crisis and so on have become increasingly prominent, threatening the survival and sustainable development of mankind, which has aroused the strong concern of all countries in the world. Therefore, the low-carbon economy with the background of energy saving and emission reduction emerged as the times require. China is in the stage of accelerating industrialization and urbanization. Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are increasing rapidly, which has caused a series of energy security and climate problems. The study of reducing carbon dioxide emissions has gradually deepened. Henan Province, as a traditional agricultural province and a new industrial province in China, needs to be strengthened in energy saving and emission reduction under the environment of building the Central Plains Economic Zone in an all-round way. Therefore, the development of low-carbon economy in Henan Province has very important theoretical and practical significance. Based on the analysis of the theory of low carbon economy and the current situation of economic development, energy consumption and carbon emission in Henan Province and other cities, the present situation of low carbon economy in Henan Province from 1995 to 2011 is studied by using LMDI factorization method. The key factors influencing its development are pointed out, such as industrial structure, energy consumption intensity, energy consumption structure, population growth and so on. At the same time, according to the theory of system dynamics, the system dynamics model of low carbon economy development in Henan Province is established, which includes four subsystems: carbon emission subsystem, economic development subsystem, energy consumption subsystem and social support subsystem. Based on the year 2000, the system is simulated. After validating the validity of the model, this paper forecasts the development of low-carbon economy in 2012-2020 by designing different scenarios, and explores the feasible way to realize the development goal of low-carbon economy in Henan Province. Under the condition that the proportion of fixed assets investment, the proportion of experiment and research input and the structure of energy consumption remain unchanged, it is difficult to achieve the policy goal of reducing carbon emissions by 2020 in Henan Province, only by optimizing the industrial structure to upgrade. Only by improving the energy consumption structure and increasing the proportion of experimental and research funds can we realize the development goal of low carbon economy in Henan Province. Finally, according to the actual situation in Henan Province, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions. Firstly, we should establish a perfect policy, financial and technical guarantee mechanism, and second, we should adhere to the road of coordinated development of low-carbon industry, agriculture and cities and towns. And form the pattern that the whole people participate in the construction of low carbon economy, according to which to reduce the greenhouse gas emission, realize the development goal of low carbon economy in Henan province.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F205
【参考文献】
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 周志;基于系统动力学的广东省低碳经济发展路径选择[D];华南理工大学;2011年
，本文编号：2226412
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