中国居民生活消费的碳排放影响因素分解及实证分析

发布时间：2018-11-28 21:12

【摘要】：在全球气候变暖的背景下,降低能源消费、减少碳排放已成为世界各国关注的焦点问题,而我国的碳减排工作面临的国际压力更为巨大。在已有的碳排放研究中,大多集中在生产部门,而忽略了居民生活部门产生的碳排放,随着城镇化进程的不断推进,居民生活能源消费产生的碳排放越来越不容忽视。居民生活能源消费的碳排放包括居民能源消费的直接碳排放和间接碳排放两个部分,由于城乡居民的消费水平和消费结构有很大的不同,因此,本文对于每一部分将分别从城镇居民和农村居民两个方面进行分析。本文利用碳排放系数法测算了1996-2010年我国城乡居民能源消费的直接碳排放量并应用LMDI分解法量化了各影响因素对直接碳排放量变动的贡献率,此外,基于投入产出模型测算了1997年、2000年、2002年、2005年和2007年我国城乡居民能源消费的间接碳排放量并应用结构分解分析法对间接碳排放量的变动进行了分解分析。研究结果表明,居民生活能源消费的碳排放整体呈上升趋势,但在2002年及2007年分别出现了下降趋势,从直接碳排放和间接碳排放的角度分析,居民能源消费的间接碳排放是居民生活能源消费碳排放的主要来源,其所占比重达80%以上,从城乡角度分析,城镇居民能源消费的碳排放高于农村居民能源消费的碳排放,并且两者的差值在进一步增大；能源价格和居民生活水平是居民能源消费直接碳排放变动的主要正向驱动因素,中间生产技术和居民生活水平是居民能源消费间接碳排放变动的主要正向驱动因素,碳排放强度是其负向驱动因素,由此得出,要鼓励居民理性消费,对能源价格进行以市场为导向的改革,同时,改变粗放式的经济发展模式,增强经济发展的可持续性。
[Abstract]:In the context of global warming, reducing energy consumption and reducing carbon emissions have become the focus of attention in the world, and the international pressure on carbon emission reduction in China is even greater. In the existing research on carbon emissions, most of them focus on the production sector, but ignore the carbon emissions generated by the residential sector. With the continuous progress of urbanization, the carbon emissions generated by residential energy consumption can not be ignored more and more. The carbon emissions of household energy consumption include direct carbon emission and indirect carbon emission of energy consumption. Because the consumption level and consumption structure of urban and rural residents are very different, therefore, Each part of this paper will be analyzed from two aspects: urban residents and rural residents. In this paper, the direct carbon emissions of energy consumption of urban and rural residents in China from 1996 to 2010 are calculated by using the carbon emission coefficient method, and the contribution rate of various factors to the change of direct carbon emissions is quantified by using LMDI decomposition method. Based on the input-output model, the indirect carbon emissions from energy consumption of urban and rural residents in 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005 and 2007 were calculated and the change of indirect carbon emissions was analyzed by structural decomposition analysis. The results show that the overall carbon emissions of household energy consumption are on the rise, but in 2002 and 2007, respectively, there is a downward trend, from the perspective of direct carbon emissions and indirect carbon emissions, Indirect carbon emissions from residents' energy consumption are the main sources of carbon emissions from household energy consumption, which accounts for more than 80%. From the perspective of urban and rural areas, the carbon emissions of urban and rural residents' energy consumption are higher than those of rural residents' energy consumption. And the difference between them is increasing further; Energy prices and living standards are the main positive drivers of direct carbon emissions changes in energy consumption, while intermediate production technologies and living standards are the main positive drivers of changes in indirect carbon emissions from energy consumption. Carbon emission intensity is the negative driving factor. It is concluded that rational consumption should be encouraged, energy price should be market-oriented, at the same time, the extensive economic development model should be changed to enhance the sustainability of economic development.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F205;F126.1;F224

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